Rolex

Baron - Mr Red
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Identifying future classic Rolex from the 1990-2018 era - Part I: Rolex 16610LV

I was recently chatting with a friend. He was bemoaning the fact that the current “hot” steel Rolex were just impossible to get from an AD and were now trading at a substantial premium in the grey market. A steel Daytona 116500 is now fetching $18,000+. I saw the new GMT Pepsi offered at over $20,000. To be honest, it is a little crazy that these new models are at such elevated prices. My reply to my friend was that for that amount of money, he could find a neo-vintage piece (ie something from the last 30 years) that would become a future classic. He then asked me what from the last 30 years I would classify as a future classic.  It got me thinking. This post represents the first in a series of posts that will look at just this question.

In the preface to the “Rolex Submariner Story”, Gino Balbi described watches as “having souls.” To quote him directly, “if the technical part animates them from a mechanical point of view, charisma on the other hand is the fruit of purely emotional values such as personality and originality.”

In my view, one of the main reasons that the Rolex Submariner has become the most widely recognised watch icon the world has ever seen is precisely because it has this charisma about it - a sort of soul. Over the years, various vintage Submariners have become so desired by collectors that prices have been driven to stratospheric levels at auctions. The idea of finding a nice ‘Big Crown” or pristine Milsub at a reasonable price has now passed. Similarly, the gilt dialled Subs of the 1960-70 era have become gold dust as have the small crowns like the 6536 and 5508. For so long, these watches were obtainable at reasonable prices yet, over time, collectors became more aware of their rarity and their collectibility. The rest is history. When these watches were readily available (and cheap), they were effectively hidden gems. For the collector who wanted historical watches, in original condition that were rare and a key part of Rolex history, these watches were hidden gems. A number of criteria form what it takes to be a hidden gem. In my view, it would roughly comprise the following:

• Of limited production thereby making it reasonably hard to find. Supply needs to be of a sufficient number to make the hunt realistic, but hard enough to make it a test.

• Within a specific reference, there is usually some distinguishing factor that separates one type of dial from another. The rarer the dial variant, the more in-demand it will be.

• Unique appearance. Take for example the Big Crowns that have clearly recognisable characteristics that make them easy to identify. Similarly, on Milsubs, the marking on the insert makes them stand out as does their military features.

• Typically, a collectible watch marks something important in the history of Rolex. It is not always the case, but often it can be. Take the Sea-Dweller 1665, for example. The invention of the HEV came with the 1665 and that marked a very significant point in Rolex history and how it subsequently shaped the company. 

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