EinPA
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This will sound controversial
but here it goes:
……
1 there are actually very few real watch collectors.
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2 prices are driven by three things: Access (status), global instability, and corruption/money laundering
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Access is obvious but that’s a small crowd.
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Global instability means you want to be able to carry something reasonably fungible, with a reasonable bid offer spread and a high value.
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Corruption: watches as bribe bait make total sense. High and incremental values ($1,000 to $100,000) are easy to obtain, relatively impossible to trace, relatively easy to exchange in the secondary market, and very portable.
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Try moving $100k in anything else and it will be a combination of bulky, traceable, difficult to find a secondary market and monitored. Watches are commodity like.
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There was a study on Swiss watch sales and Chinese politics that I wish I could find but the effects of changes in one market and total sales in the other were crazy. Perhaps someone can post that study.
Where are we with watches? Some thoughts on the current watch world.
That may sound like a strange question on a watch forum. We are all here because we are watch fans and lovers, but the question remains. I had this discussion many times, with a lot of friends, through private message or in person, recently. Indeed, for s...
I couldn’t agree more. Once an item flips from being a functional tool to a status symbol to an actual asset…the original functional attributes (which is what drew us in into this hobby) become less and less apparent in the “novelties” and it becomes
the Veblen-ism which dictates things. To me, though, this means that non-hyped vintage and neo-vintage pieces (I’m mainly talking panerai and JLC in my case) are the way to go, along with carefully-selected independents (I won’t name names). Basically, I ...
Yes I think alike! 👍🏻
Pitty in many ways for us, also for me (as an example). I begin to look less and less at established luxury manufacturers, because of the price increases (which I find simply rud), or the availability issue. In many ways the whole behavior of these brands...
I am glad to read this, Nicolas
from having to spend an exuberant amount on other items, to having to be interviewed, to trying independents (who may have quality control issue), just to get a SS watch that I like. I am stepping away from this craziness. I found a much better alternativ...
Totally agree with your opinion, Nicolas!
I just cannot put my mind around the fact that modern Rolex and similar watches (A TOOL WATCH IN IT'S ESSENCE) has a price tag of $$$$ and sometimes $$$$$ put aside availability. It completely discourages the passion. Which IMHO is a vital part of watch c...
I fully agree, Nicolas. And I do not think you are exaggerating.
The reasons for why it is the way it is, is in my mind complex and hard to pin down. The mechanical watch is not an item of purpose anymore. It is an item of luxury. The correct time (often more correct than a mechanical watch gives) is easily accessible ...
Times are changing !
Big brands, big companies, wealthy people are also bored so they are in search for new opportunities, easy ways to make MORE money .... . What happened with COVID ? Some guys bought all the building materials they could find and stored them in mega wareho...
Aren't there companies that let you ..
... invest in a big collection of watches ? It's like the stock market ... at least you can wear one of those watches I guess. .... I think
We went through the 'Tulip' phase....
...and now we get back to reality. First, let's be thankful that horology did get a VERY nice bit of publicity and promotion these past few years. High-end audio had no such luck. Look at all the new developments in horology in the past few years, amazing...
By the numbers, imho, more people are aware of mechanical timepieces as *something desirable*...
...than only a handful of years ago. more people=more consumers=more sales. Agree we're not going to see the MASSIVE hype as we did at the peak in March 2022, unless central banks decided to once again just give away a few more trillion, yet on a longish ...
Nothing thrilling? Well, let me introduce you to high-performance audio :)
What's your home theater / stereo?
Btw...
"Patek, Vacheron, Audemars Piguet, Jaeger Lecoultre, Girard Perregaux, Ulysse Nardin, even Panerai made us dream". i remember those days. Ignore those brands in 2024 and you'll be fine. There are now soooo much more funer-er brands and independents. Sure ...
Interesting write up my friend!
We are all in this hobby for different reasons therefore the answer is more complex than it looks. The watchword is changing the same way as everything else, it became a moneymaking business and collectors are following the trends that secondary dealers a...
Trends, hype... I am not after that at all... I love the nuances you bring about scarcity, another post to come on that. As for me trying to hype vintage, I always loved vintage. So, no I am not trying.
I learned a lesson... Do never post about a vintage watch before you buy it... )))
Trends and hype were, are, and always be here.
The watch hobby is no different than any other hobby and now called “market”. Humans are malleable so fresh blood will always be available. Trends are good in my opinion because they help develop direction and preferences, In my opinion trends are like fa...
Agree with you 100%, don't have to play their game
But we are the 0.01% the new entrants learn the hardway and the houses don't care about us.
A very interesting and think provoking post dear Nicolas. I guess the Horological World has gone a bit crazy in the last years...
Instagram, new pseudo collectors who are actually investors or speculators have done a big part of the damage. Then there are the makers who lacking of new ideas keep milking the market with "new" unattractive models or with attractive models which can´t ...
Well, sad, my dear friend. The passion, and sometimes the obsession is in our hearts. Like anything else we can only hope that in the future things get better but we’ve all been disappointed before.
The important thing is that we keep everything in perspective. Particularly related to our lives, family, and health. Que le vaya bien amigo
Gracias por tu respuesta mi amigo Nicolas! We are fortunate to own wonderful pieces to enjoy and keep our passion alive. Absolutely agree that the current "market" is exhausting...
... that´s a precise word to describe it! Abrazos amigo mio!! Abel
All I can add is this:
I believe all trends are cyclical. We witnessed a huge rise in popularity and price of some watches, which brought many new people into the hobby. These same people have yet to develop their own taste and identity as collectors, which means that it will t...
Interesting as usual, Nicolas.
The “horofatigue” is real with certain brands and their lists, prices, etc. Perhaps we’re left to shake the vintage bushes and then pounce on a cool new release that emerges from time to time. ...
Franck Muller
Not much else to say, really… I’m expecting a rediscovery of his work. I’m thinking of putting together a full collection of steel Cintrée Curvex watches with all the different complications. If I bought all of them it would still be less than one Rolex D...
I agree.
I have not gotten as excited as I usually do for about the last three years now. Mostly have found excitement with indies.
The latest fads may be (are) uninspiring…
… but the Classics, oh they give joy many times over Sharing each others passion for something really great is always a pleasure, and when it’s “new to me” it brings me joy as great as new There are more recent authors I love, but my love of Shakespeare c...
Brilliant post Mon Ami and one this thread touches on many issues which we all feel has adversly affected our beloved hobby
I agree that Insta and the new "collecting " paradigm with many influencers masquerading as collectors has changed the nature of this wonderful hobby But the watch makkers and marheters have a lot to answer for as well Every week there is another " limite...
I think the horological experience reached its peak in the 2010s..
I blame soc med for killing a lot of the original excitement. Before that platform took off and along with it much of the unadulterated experience of enjoying all thing’s horological, there was still an element of insider baseball to the enjoyment granted...
Agree and I think social media and democratization dilutes the concept of quality irl and the understanding of what is good. Reminds me of music...
LP > Tapes > CDs > Minidisc / HD audio > MP3s > Streaming Sound quality of music kept getting better and better until we traded definition for accessibility, variety, cost, and ease of use. My wife doesn't even understand why I keep large speakers and a b...
The focus turns to colors and materials
I fully share your observations, the focus of the watch Industrie is turning to colors and materials, only very few real new release have been presented so far this year and the trend is already going on for a while. As already mentioned before, another t...
I believe we are deep in the new era of luxury while we guys are mentally stuck in the previous one.
These are just incomplete quick thoughts typed on the phone but I'll try. 1 Not so long ago the game of luxury products was - hire best talent in design and manufacturing, give the team best materials, make top-quality product and sell it to best retailer...
This will sound controversial
but here it goes: …… 1 there are actually very few real watch collectors. …… 2 prices are driven by three things: Access (status), global instability, and corruption/money laundering …… Access is obvious but that’s a small crowd. …… Global instability mea...
Well………
They can afford to be lazy under my theory, because a relatively small proportion of their buyers would actually care. They just want a fungible store of value that’s easily ported across international boundaries and can’t be easily traced. Thieves aren’t...
I could not agree more!
There is pretty much nothing in the current lineup that I both like and can afford. Was quite distant from the hobby myself for a while and am now back in the game hunting some early 2000 Ulysse Nardin. Great analysis, Nicolas. Best regards Andreas
Horofatigue is real!
Really, the brands just haven't made anything interesting. Sure, at the $3 million US dollar price level, there are some interesting things - but most of those pieces are unwearable (too large). Look at 2024's trade show novelties at Watches and Wonders. ...
Well said!
I left Geneva watches and wonders with a desire for a white MB&F Legacy Machine Perpetual Evo and an early Rolex 1675…not a lot for me in current ranges from the big manufactures bar some interesting independents. Neo vintage for me and vehemently against...
I hope design elements of some watches of the 2000's
It even fits my wrist! Just picked one up, quite happily ...
can't agree more Nico...we spoke about it few times
most brands, if I may say all - there is a lack of 'wow' factor or no innovation when it comes to sub 10k watches....even I dare say sub 50k then naturally there were hidden gems in the past that makes much more sense...especially 5110 & few others....! r...
Fatigue…
I think about the concept: fatigue. In this regard, in general, in a world with almost 8 billion individuals, “exclusive” “expensive” products must be quickly generated in an environment (also exclusive) for the few potential buyers. This is where everyth...
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