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Fantastic - thank you for taking the time to write this!
I also think that the luxury watch market is fascinating case study for both human psychology and general market forces.
Look at chrono24 for example - they are considered to be "the watch exchange" by many. But it is in fact a sort of dark pool, only asks are visible, never the transactions. For example it is a no brainer for a dealer to list a watch twice - say once at 100K, and a second time at 150K. Making the first ask seem like a bargain in comparison to the second one! In many cases none of the prices have anything to do with what a model really transacts at.
In other examples - if a watch is illiquid, ie somewhat rare, it is very easy to accumulate inventory, create artificial scarcity and push prices to crazy levels. The more successful this market manipulation is, with the cooperation of the gullible (?) buyers, the more cash the manipulator has to continue playing the game! And the buyer is a winner as long as momentum lasts!
I always wondered how come there always seemed to be more Richard Mille watches in the Diamond District of New York then in the rest of the world, until a grey dealer mentioned to me that he mostly buys watches that he previously sold, at a profit to the happy buyer, then sells them at even higher price. Watches are being bought, inventory dips which creates scarcity, which in turns spurns demand and serves to justify higher prices. But overall there is no real scarcity, there is just price momentum!
I always find it hilarious when people suggest that dealers should be free to set their prices because free markets solve every problem! Exactly because of human psychology , the ease with which we are manipulated, unregulated markets tend to be a complete disaster. Plenty of stories from the early days of the US stock market.
To go back to the original topic. I am certainly not immune to marketing. I have a few rules though. If I have doubts about a watch I don't buy it even if I have a unique opportunity to do so. I am not upset if I can't get a rare piece, there is always something equally exciting around the corner. People matter, the less they play games the more I like them.
Omega X Swatch MoonSwatch: The Master Plan
WatchProSite Moderator Patrick_y, was a fan of magic and illusion shows since a young age. Not only because he enjoyed watching magic shows, but he enjoyed the challenge of figuring out how a trick was done. In this article, our moderator peels back the c...
Excellent theory,
The only reasonable theory to explain the Rolex scarcity also,bravo !!!
Thank you for commenting!
The Rolex is a slightly different machine. But there are definitely some parts are from the same playbook or a similar playbook!
Wow! It's 3 hours long!
Too bad I can't download it and watch it on the plane! Thank you for the suggestion and thank you for reading! Looks like good content!
This is brilliant analysis Patrick...
...I also wonder about skipping the LA market. Also, how many watches were gifted to 'influencers' who are expected to hype them on social media. These (I assume) would not be part of the limited series...
Ignorance is bliss right?
Let's all be blissful sheep! Baaaa baaaa blisss! Who wants a hoof massage? Baaa? Now the question is... Is it better to be the shepherd or the sheep dog? Or is it still better to be the sheep? Hmm... If WatchProSite didn't exist, life would be a lot easie...
So true! As long as we customers respond with our $ to these kinds of tactics, it is the brand's responsibility to sell to us the way we buy
My team built one of the first and largest flash sale sites in the US, it was like running amazon for an hour a day, and people went nuts for what was ultimately overstock the brands couldn't get rid of any other way. Then we built one of the largest grou...
Market manipulations is rarely done by the brands, more often done by the grey market and resellers...
Although the brands are now calculating what the grey market is doing and adjusting their strategies to be more in sync. But they're not always actively manipulating the market at the micro-level. I remember Woot! and these other flashsale websites. They ...
Fantastic - thank you for taking the time to write this!
I also think that the luxury watch market is fascinating case study for both human psychology and general market forces. Look at chrono24 for example - they are considered to be "the watch exchange" by many. But it is in fact a sort of dark pool, only ask...
Well said!
People definitely matter. And that's why I love the independents. You get to build such a close relationship with them! And you learn so much about the watch industry! Also, another reason why watches have gotten so expensive. So many new dealers have to ...
Yawn.....
Someone please wake me when when Rolex & Casio join up for the Subshock. Good read BTW in describing some twisted human behavior.
Sorry to have put you to sleep!
Marketers have to eat and their hungry children demand expensive organic milk and beluga caviar! So they have to come up with these crazy ideas to get consumers to buy things!
Ahh! Well said!
Bad behavior is everywhere! I wished bad behavior put me to sleep. I'd sleep really soundly on airplanes then. So much bad behavior on planes and by travelers. Why do people have to stand right behind you when you queue. Give me a full meter please, espec...
Very interesting post!
Do you think their best strategy now is to continually perpetuate scarcity (always sold out even online), maintain crazy grey market prices, and rollout the now tried and true bundling strategy in stores? I think this is what they may want to do now.
Hard to say...
Ultimately, for this particular launch, I still see that Swatch Group wants to make some money. So while I say in the beginning that "chatter" is a higher priority than revenue, ultimately, in this particular case, Swatch Group can achieve both. So I imag...
Indeed, and in Hong Kong this morning
…the cops had to be called to do crowd control outside the Swatch store! Can post a Twitter link to a video but can’t remember if that’s allowed or not. Best E.
It's allowed.
The only thing that's not allowed is telling everyone your Twitter handle or your Instagram/Facebook user name in the hopes that people from this site will subscribe. That's not cool. Imagine if I was using your home to further my business. You'd say, "Pa...
Good stuff
That’s reasonable. Well, since I posted there’s been ample press coverage of the crowds - although Hodinkee’s article didn’t mention HK. A friend in Tokyo said the shops remained closed after the police stepped in; the queue in Shibuya went around multipl...
To most people...
To most people, the MoonSwatch will be super desirable. People love buying conversation starters and impressing the public at large. On our website though, we are less impressed, since a large percentage of the readers on our website are much more incline...
A really very fascinating and carefully thought-out article,
which also led to very interesting answers. I really want to thank you for that, dear Patrick! For me, the bottom line is: we are obviously being manipulated more than we want to admit. But in the end we only lose ourselves in these relentlessly grinding ...
Well stated and I completely agree with you, sir.
Ultimately, we must realize the important points of life and this requires active introspection, calming the mind, and stepping back to see the big picture.
Unfortunately, most people only step back and realize the important points of life when it's too late...
Normally on their death bed or very late in life do they realize the big picture.
We are indeed fairy-tale giants!
Thank you for sharing your comments and reading my long article MTR! Your thoughtful comments are very much appreciated! Hopefully our fellow consumer brothers and sisters realize that we do have a choice. But with the fact that there are millions of newl...
In San Francisco, one group of people started queuing over 24 hours before the store opened!
Thank you for reading and commenting Bobbe! In San Francisco the line of people stretched around the block and was probably 200 meters long! It was crazy! I interviewed about six of the people waiting in line, the rule in San Francisco is that everyone ca...
Really enjoyed your analysis, and I congratulate you for your bravery of pointing out the facts most don’t want to hear!
Sadly the “I have it too” mentally is to far gone and I think it’s irreversible. The forces involved in hyping Omega this days are beyond believe, there’s not one social media outlet where you don’t see gazillion podcasts, opinions about how much better O...
Thank you for reading and commeting!
Your line, "don't even consider using electricity or my precious time to study it" is especially funny and very accurate! People will always have their opinions, unfounded or not. Fortunately, here, on WatchProSite, we're slightly more fact driven than op...
Without one prerequisite this kind of marketing strategy would not be possible at all
Markets have been flooded for nearly 15 years with cheap money. Helping manufactures, ADs and the grey market. Without that amount of cash flowing in our economic circles no-one would pay factor x of a Swatch on the day of release. Not talking about moon ...
That too!
Although... It doesn't take a lot of capital to buy two $260 USD watches... So hence, why I didn't mention the cheap money and low interest rates in this article. But you're absolutely right! It has helped the rest of the watch market as a whole.
Ahh, I understand now.
Yes! Lots of bubbles. Who knows if the watch bubble will ever pop. In the 2009 financial crisis, watches were still going up.
Drop strategy in full effect…I’m enjoying watching your expected strategy steps play out this morning, as we are seeing in the various posts 👌🏼
Now I’m really curious if indeed Swatch group will have a phase 2 with wider release. But they’d have to allow online purchase given the few physical Swatch stores.
Definitely going to have a wider release...
So far, I'm certain there will be a wider release. How wide remains to be seen. But definitely a wider release coming.
Thank you for the kind words! Correct! I'm betting that they'll have a second or a possible third "drop."
I did drive by my local Swatch store in the early morning (or late night) since I couldn't sleep. I saw a huge line! I'll wait for the subsequent drop(s), I imagine if I still want one then, I'll get it then. But so far my prediction of around 10,000 unit...
Thank you for reading!
I know it was a very long article. Thank you for reading it and commenting!
Thank you for this clear insight dear Patrick
You nailed it pretty well!!! It looks like nowadays we are unconscious victims of marketing. Best. René
Thank you for reading!
Hopefully now you're armed with a little insight, so now you know a bit more about what to avoid!
Are you getting a kickback from omega to make me buy now a speedmaster fast before the prices go up??? 🤣
Great analysis I believe it makes sense and that’s the only reason why such big huge companies are not fighting the grey market. I think it’s a investment that will not pay out well, the reason is because they cheapened the watch, omega is on the planet b...
I wished I were getting a kickback! But yes, Swatch Group should pay me a commission for everybody who buys an Omega because of my article!
Heck, they don't even need to give me a kickback! They can just gift me one of those darned MoonSwatch timepieces! Hmm... what color do I want? Hmm... Joking aside. I can't accept a watch anyways, not even a MoonSwatch as WatchProSite moderators promise n...
Some more thought, definitely no kick back!
Definitely no kickback from Omega nor Swatch nor SwatchGroup. They're probably slightly unhappy at me for posting their game plan! (Don't be mad at me Swatch Group, you know I like your products... I'm planning to write really nice things about the Bregue...
Omega:
Moderator Patrick is gotta go 👺 he’s a whistle blower and saying al the secrets. For me I hope it goes bad their plan and this watch fails, so other big brands don’t try to do the same thing and in a year from now when I’ll find a speedmaster that I like ...
Yes! Omega is saying: "someone tell Moderator Patrick_y that loose lips sink ships!"
Your hopes are probably shared by many readers on WPS! And I commend your bravery for mentioning it. But so far, the launch has been going well. So far the reaction has been very much on point. Successful so far for Swatch Group, Omega, and Swatch Watches...
Hopefully your plan to get a Speedmaster at a good deal works! Some Omega stores are now having long lines.
Maybe those are real customers just looking? A hired crew of people being paid to stand in line by the store to generate buzz? Who knows. But there might be a run on the real Omegas as well!
Sadly I got cooled off from omega!
I was looking into the consultation and the speedmaster but I no longer have a pull for it, I lost all interest. I wouldn’t be shocked if they paid people to stand in line all day
It's possible!
I don't know where you reside, but if you're near San Francisco, the team at the SF store is great. Ask for Andre, he's realistic, he knows it's partially a game, he'll help you navigate the game, he doesn't try to BS you, etc. I still like my Moonwatch. ...
San Francisco ran out in early am
Patrick, you called their game plan exactly. Great prediction of social media logarithmic marketing.
I actually went for a drive and saw the SF line, wrapped around the block, up Stockton Street! That was one long line!
I had a large late dinner on Friday evening and found that I couldn't go to sleep. I had eaten a late lunch and a very gluttonous dinner. Shame on me! When I first saw the queue of people on Stockton street, I thought it was a homeless encampment (no disr...
Patrick, many thanks for this post and for all your comments
Threads like these are what makes WPS so worthwhile and educating. Keep up the good work and the format! Let's prevent people drifting off to FB and IG. Cheers from Old Europe Richard
Why thank you for the kind words!
Why thank you so much Richard for the kind words! That's what we strive to do! Offer a bit more depth than FB or IG. But for those who want their visual cortex stimulated, those are good places to go! Here, we try to stimulate both the visual cortex and t...
Catching up with this. A fascinating read and all on point, thank you much. A few personal reflections herein...
I began my career in the early 1990s working for a marketing agency in London. Above my desk was a poster. It showed a pile of excrement on a plate, surrounded by halogen lamps. Under this crude image was the caption: "It's a piece of sh*t but it's tastef...
