A bubble has not burst, and isn't going to do so anytime soon... if ever.
But there has been a distribution change from Panerai which has created negative energy in the Panerai collecting community.
As Panerai opens Boutiques, and ends relationships with authorized dealers that helped them build the brand, some long time collectors feel shunned by the brand. They feel bad for their AD and for themselves.
Many collectors have built relationships with their AD's by buying watches regularly in an effort to remain high on the AD's list for special edition distribution. These collectors have built some extensive collections of watches to say the least. Many enjoyed the special attention they received from their AD, as well as their prized watch collections.
That same collector now has to buy a watch from a Boutique, where they have no relationship and often have to deal long distance. They have now been passed over from getting several special editions as they are now near the bottom of the list (or so it seems).
They didn't get the PAM 382 Bronzo, but 6 months later they got a call from the Boutique that they can have a PAM 372, after 3500 had already been distributed, so they now feel like throwing in the towel.
Honestly, I don't blame them. It is tough to go from top dog to the dog house.
As a collector and seller of Panerai watches, I think I have a pretty good feel for the market.
I have had a few collectors ask me to move some of their timepieces, but not their favorite ones. They are "venting" but not jumping ship. And these few collectors are still checking out this Panerai discussion forums and others. They are upset with their new position in the pecking order, but they are still passionate about the brand. I know this because they are still calling me weekly to discuss Panerai watches.
Yes, they are trying some other watch brands too, but my experience shows they always come back to Panerai. One collector recently told me his Panerai held their value through the recession as well if not better than his Rolex and Patek watches ( I know, value is only part of the equation). Also, he said he made too many Panerai friends to walk away now.
You are correct when you stated $6000 watches are selling at a very slow rate. My opinion is that is a sign of the slumping world wide economy. Collectors that buy watches in that price range have less expendable funds than the collector that buys 25-100k watches. Almost every collector is buying a price point down, or selling one piece before they buy another. I promise you, I am getting calls every week from people that have just discovered the brand.
Also, I work with 4 other brands rather extensively and Panerai is out preforming all of them. It is still top dog in my small arsenal of inventory.
Personally, I don't like what Panerai is doing with the AD/Boutique remarketing scheme. But Bonati is a marketing genius. He has something up his sleeve (other than a Panerai watch) and I am confident he will make it work. Second, Panerai has a following unlike any other brand. It is a brotherhood and I don't think this community will abandon the brand. Last, the dynamics of military history and Italian design/styling, that is second to none, are truly captivating.
The best brand will have highs and lows, but that doesn't mean it was built on a bubble. I think Panerai just has too much going for it to pop.
Thanks,
Bruce
Bigb