Fastwong
2239
I think this will be something to watch closely next year and see where we end up at the next Dubai WW
Hodinkee seems to have done another round of layoffs, I've heard of some maisons getting their budgets slashed by big numbers across the board, LVMH is responding to the market with some longer term investments slowing or getting cancelled until further notice. Watches seem to have slowed more than say leather with Hermes and Channel still doing business as usual. 2023 practically done, we won't see the impact of the changes till well into next year. But your point still stands, LVMH has unlimited credit, if the market softens further maybe it'll be time go shopping and we'll see Arnault's face on a PP MR in 2025 š¤£
I do think they'll go shopping and I'm not convinced Daniel Roth will rise out of the ashes to quick success. It's worth remembering that LVMH has never successfully built their own brand, they are better acquirers than they are creators. None of the kids have successfully created their own brands and dad has nothing to teach them there. Not saying to won't or can't happen but it will be interesting to watch them give it a go.
Dubai Watch Week Special Insight: Louis Vuitton Group and Watches: The Business Plan and A Future Forecast
Moderator Patrick_y gives a quick case study about what to expect about LVMH and watches in the coming years... Louis Vuitton Moet Hennessy is the highest grossing luxury goods conglomerate in the world. We're talking over $80 Billion US Dollars a year in...
Thanks for this fantastic write up! A question regarding LVMH and Laurent Ferrier
On the topic of LVMH potentially buying a luxury brand, tell me please, what do you think of LVMH and Laurent Ferrier? LF is luxury, French and already cooperating with LVMH on the movements side. IMHO, this combination would potentially help both and mak...
Thatās funny because I was also wondering about them making a play for LFš¤
Curious to read Patrickās opinion.
Could be a multitude of issues...
Maybe there are too many partners and not all of them want to sell. And LV can't buy enough shares to get enough control of the company so they don't want it. Maybe they don't feel LF is a big value add to their portfolio - for the cost it'd take to buy L...
A good idea!
I don't know who owns LF right now. Maybe there are too many partners to be bought out? And maybe some partners don't want to sell? Maybe some partners have unrealistic valuations and LVMH isn't willing to sell? Could be a multitude of reasons. But a good...
Yes, more, please. I appreciate the business and economic perspectives you share and the comments/opinions of the forum members here.
In the planned sessions/itinerary, will there be any discussion about market and overall economic outlook for the industry? Itās a big topic with likely too wide a scope, but since there are big changes we are witnessing then brands and other stakeholders...
The quality of articles...
The quality, consistency, and regularity of articles is something that we really need to work on. And judging by the number of views and comments, doesn't seem a lot of people share your sentiments about this post nor more business posts. A posting about ...
I noticed the paucity tooš
I didnāt realize their site has resources and linksā¦Iāll definitely check that out, thanks.šš½
Enjoy!
Most of the Horology Forums will be filmed and put on YouTube, so don't worry if you miss them as they go on live.
Please please please
Itās so easy for so many people to simply post a photo of X watch in the car, in the yard with a cigar, in front of the bbq, at dinner, at the office, on holiday, on a boatā¦yawn. Mega-yawn, actually. This is MUCH MUCH MUCH more interesting. Please keep it...
Thank you Esharp! We'll see what we can do!
It's all determined by view count, reader comments, and any other comments/criticism from other peers. This kind of article is normally published for a less public audience in a consulting company or something to that effect. Brands probably wouldn't find...
But thatās precisely why we come HERE.
I can go to many other watch sites for the boring stuff. Anyone can take a photo of his Caromegaphillipiguelex (or whatever it is) while on holiday and upload it. Yay!, Thatās so cool!, say his friends / fellow Brand X devotees. But the rest of us are yaw...
We'll see!
No promises! This kind of a posting was mostly experimental. And would never be seen - this is usually considered business intelligence and is generally provided only in subscription services from consulting companies.
Definitely enjoyed reading this and appreciate the perspective!!! I find the industry of watches and luxury just as if not more interesting than the watches themselves so hope these keep coming!
There's so much change that's happened and still happening, we will be witness to massive transformation of an industry that pre-bubble was pretty quiet. With luxury really feeling some pain right now, it will be interesting to see how things unfold. Even...
Thank you Sir!
I knew you'd enjoy this one! LVMH is definitely thinking long-term. The recent downturn has been felt, but LVMH is still super cash rich, the stock is down a lot the past few months, but still very high overall. The financials at LVMH look good and they c...
I think this will be something to watch closely next year and see where we end up at the next Dubai WW
Hodinkee seems to have done another round of layoffs, I've heard of some maisons getting their budgets slashed by big numbers across the board, LVMH is responding to the market with some longer term investments slowing or getting cancelled until further n...
The kids have set low bars...
The new Louis Vuitton Tambour does not have especially high sales goals. So it'll be a success no matter what - since the sales goals is only a couple hundred to a couple thousand units a year. As for the longer term goals - well, it'll be mixed. There wi...
not the super high end ... But they should buy Ebel back
They had it in portfolio about 20 years ago and sold it to Movado ( Movado created a disaster) I'm sure Ebel can bring value to them. An iconic brand that once was more popular than Rolex ( 1980 Miami Vice ) Ebel once saved Zenith by ordering the El Prime...
Ebel was indeed a very cool watch when they had Zenith El Primero movements in them...
Max Busser's first watch was an Ebel with an El Primero movement inside of it. Although, I have a strong feeling that LVMH is looking for a MUCH HIGHER END brand than Ebel. That's what they're missing in their product portfolio. They'd rather have the mon...
Good point!
Good point and good question. I actually don't know - as I didn't really know much about Tag Heuer (it's never been a popular brand on this forum) a few years back. I've only recently gotten to know Tag a little bit through Frederic from two years ago in ...
I seem to remember when he took over he cancelled a lot of the upscale stuff they were coming out with and didnt want them...
to lose their core audience so he bailed on the advances. I think that's when he started adding tech/computer access into the watches as well, to attract younger people and also stay in their price lane. Here was an interview...
I think Biver looked at Hublot, Zenith, and Tag and tried to create a market game plan
But with the kids split between all the maisons it's game of thrones, each looking to make a name for themselves with their own maisons...
I can't tell for certain...
I can't tell for certain, but it seems that Jean and Frederic work together pretty well. They might have a friendly rivalry, but they seem very cordial and brotherly amongst each other. Then again, they know that I'll be paying attention to everything - s...
I don't know them personally, just saying it is a different environment from when Biver was looking across all the watch brands. In a time when Bernard is looking at succession planning...
... I think it's expected to see some jostling for position and one of the big scores on the report cards will be growth of the respective maisons they've been "given" whether for position in the group or just who gets to run the next hotter bigger brand ...
I personally don't think succession planning is that big of a deal at LVMH.
The children are all involved and they work very hard to project the image of unity and strength. Sure, who knows if that's the case in the background, but succession planning seems to just be a huge buzz word since the TV show and Bernard's age is taken ...
Ahh, that was a long time ago. 2016 is a long time ago by watch industry standards...
Amazing how much has changed in just 7 years! You have a good memory!
Thanks!
I haven't listened to the whole thing, but I'm about 1/4 the way through and this is mostly things I know already. Thanks for the link m2!
Thank you my friend!
Main thing this article is intended is to give you a perspective that most collectors wouldn't think of - as most collectors aren't thinking carefully about the business side of things. And to give the reader some empathy to think from the Arnault's persp...
Thank you for sharing your thoughts and perspectives!
So many interesting subjects in thereā¦how do you groom the next generation, how do you grow a luxury business, etc. Really interesting material. It will be interesting to see what happens here over the next years. I canāt help but wonder how big the marke...
Definitely a shrewd strategy!
They're limited in how they can play their cards. LVMH WISHES they had a top level watch brand like Breguet, Vacheron Constantin, Patek Philippe, FP Journe... They wish so badly they had one - but they don't. So they've got to do the best they can with wh...
Great write up
Iāve heard rumors that Patek might sell out in the coming years as the family considers cashing in. Iāve heard both Rolex and Arnault would be looking to acquire the company.
The rumors have swirled for years since Bloomberg wrote that article...
Only time will tell. But yes, if the Stern family decides to sell, Thierry Stern knows he's supposed to call the Arnault family and ask for a bid. Bernard reminds Thierry of that every year or two! "Call me first" in French.
What a fantastic writeup which is so intriguing and educational at the same time.
I agree with assessments which make a lot of sense regarding LVMHās paths to owning a piece of super high end watchmaking. It seems to me that among their properties, Daniel Roth is the brand with most high end and exclusive reputation. It seems a better ...
I think LVMH is going to pump a lot of money into Daniel Roth and Gerald Genta...
Those are the two halo brands that they have and they're going to play their cards right with them!
Should be good!
Should be very good indeed. I would have high expectations. I see a green Donald Duck watch coming from Gerald Genta soon.
Great read!
I do think what LVMH has done across multiple luxury categories is quite extraordinary, and I do agree that the recent projects with Akrivia, Tag Heuer, as well as their in-house Tambour is pretty remarkable in such a short time period. I would also like ...
EXACTLY!
You know a lot about the subject Peter! Yes, La Fabrique du Temps is definitely a strategic acquisition to make cool and unusual movements in the future. I didn't like Anita Porchet's work on the snake watch - but yes, they are all about making weird thin...