aelred
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The same holds true for the engineering departments unfortunately...
I've been calling it for about 15 years now, and this is my opinion of course:
At most places I've worked, you have a bell curve distribution. A smattering of trainees you can absorb, the bulk of staff are junior to mid, and then a small amount of senior staff.
What has happened now is that to truly be effective, it's no longer enough to be a specialist, you have to have 2 specialties plus be able to function as an integrator to actually function as a senior technologist. I don't mean in the sense of "I have a title", I mean in the practical sense of "I'm advising on technology policy with 10-20 year national implications."
What does this mean for staff? The bell curve has inverted, you need MORE senior staff, what used to be the "mids" are either people crossing the gulf to become seniors or people that can't keep up and falling back to become juniors. I tell people that tech is a river not a lake and you have to swim hard just to stay still, even harder to advance.
I've watched people that 10+ years ago were "lead engineers" suddenly find themselves doing routine work and wondering what happened to their career while others advanced. I've also seen others that despite their age keep continuously learning (We had a 40 year employee "grandma" famous for that, total rockstar)
As for the blue collar stuff, I remember in 1994/5, I remember seeing hardwired systems using military HUD displays designed for field hardware troubleshooting for mechanics. The goal at the time was to eliminate the need for the military to send people to training schools for months/years and get them into the field right away. Even back then the systems were amazing, the limiting factor was the technology and portability. Those issues have now been fixed.
Stupid Question - with AI taking over the market, who will buy nice watches?!!!
Lord knows Nico’s safe is only so big!! Credit NY Times ...
Probably depends on the individual's stock options and length of tenure....
on which they base a substantial amount of the severance.... I'm sure some employees received very handsome pay-outs!
Unless societies establish some ground rules, this will become common
I've seen what the latest paid-access versions of GPT tech can do, and it's god-like. When, not if, AGI happens, there will be no job that can't be taken by a machine. "Me plus AI" is a lie sold by the tech barons and their political enablers to deflect o...
Tim I don't know if anyone could have it said this sentiment better.
AI is a disaster it's like feeling the brakes starting to go out as we race towards a cliff. We know how this is going to end. Watches will be the last thing on peoples minds.
Sadly
The regulatory framework (is there even one) is not anywhere to be seen. People have been trained to think that regulations inhibit markets and by inference capitalism. They are about to learn a painful lesson.
The only saving grace with nukes was that any idiot couldn't get one - not so lucky this time
81 years after Los Alamos, you still need to be a state entity to engineer and build an atomic bomb. It never got easier or cheaper. There was no Moore's Law for nukes, thank god. Tech products are different. Your neighbor's kid could use a commercial pro...
This should be printed as a legit editorial piece in the NYT and other outlets.
Problem is, exactly as you say, it can’t be stopped. Your point about all the development happening in closed “labs” is going to hit like a tsunami. And no government or regulators will be able to get ahead of it.
That's kind, but I take no pleasure in sizing up this slow motion train wreck.
I would love to be wrong and laugh about it here on WPS in ten years. But when greed and caution hit the scales, dollars and cents outweigh sense every time. People as a group always seem to learn the hard way. Best, Tim
Wow!
It’s so good to see someone who has thought this through and is willing to speak his opinion. I do happen to agree with everything you said. The only winners are the tech bros and they may find they won nothing in the long run.
The circle j-rk of billion$$$$$$ being made up, AI 'investing' is like a Magical Money Printing Machine. Rest assured the K economy is safe, rich guys are doing great! 👑
The problem is true ARTISAN timepieces by Rexhepi...... Théo Auffret Hazemann & Monnin Rémy Cools Vincent Deprez Simon Brette Petermann Bedat Sylvain Pinaud Dann Phimphrachanh Kari Voutilainen Julien Tixier Raul Pages Hervé Schlüchter Etc Etc Etc ... ...a...
Updated post, u r fun 🎪
Some things go up in buying power. Of course you could be like central banks and buy physical gold. How much do you have?
I have no bitcoin!
Gold? Does gold-plated or gold color count? I got lots of those 😂😂😂
AI will duhhh!:)
I'm not a fan of AI we are rushing to our demise. Everyone sees it and feels it yet we continue forging ahead.
Ahh!! Well when companies see other companies getting better at AI
they try to keep up, at least that’s what I think 🤷🤷🤷
I don't know, for me personally I hate speaking to a bot when I call a place. I want someone with a soul on the other line.
In fact I will personally seek offices in (healthcare) that have not gone the AI route to have more of a connection to someone human.
If people would watch globális trends they would starting to preoare!
As per the U.S. Government portal, in three years 50% of U.S. jobs will be obsolete! Doctors, lawyers, architects, teachers… AI will take over, Maybe plumbers, electricians, construction workers have a bit longer lifespan…? Watches will be relics of the p...
I don’t believe that.
AI IMO will never replace a doctor it will help diagnose but not ultimately treat a patient. nor do I think laws would allow it to be stand alone without doctor supervision. Paralegals will probably cease to exist as lawyers could use AI to substitute for...
I hope you’re right!
However, most doctors already use AI to diagnose. In mayor cities doctors just prescribe medication and all conversations between doctor and parade recorded for AI to learn! Surgeons are safe for now! Teachers will be nothing but screens in the classroom ...
$40k / year for just two of us. There was a small study where AI supported review reduced the cost of mammograms leading to increased screening demand and the need for more doctors but ...
... That's probably a temporary case as AI makes it's though/up the value chain but even if not I don't think it can beat wider demand destruction from a broad unemployment shock while healthcare costs continue to rise at least in the US. Good thing Gen Z...
Watches already ARE relics of the past.
Maybe that should give us some insight to a path for those who wish to continue creating and making.
Prior to my retirement, I was doing a bunch of "inside" work on AI in this area.
The reality is that most of these companies are and were woefully overstaffed. AI is just the excuse: companies are now trimming the fat. Forced hiring for many reasons, including non-merit based ones, and now the chickens have come home to roost. Except,...
As a follow up:
Last spring, doing some consultative work for the "gubmint". I educated some software developers on EARLY AI practices that were speeding development and QA/QC work by 30% within the first week or two after they adopted my suggestions, and they have kept ...
I think there is some part not knowing how to use/apply AI and another
Part with shitty AI systems. But I think, when done right, AI is can be scary useful. I hear it’s good for time intensive but repetitive task..
Proper crafting of the prompts are key. I wasted a fair amount of time in that area until I got close...
...Mark Andreeson (of Andreeson Horowitz fame, also Netscape, etc) recently released a VERY effective prompt that has mostly eliminated the need for custom workspace prompting and greatly reduced the hallucinations I've seen once I've "forced the reboots"...
Yes...when I worked in tech from the '90s onward, at least...
...20% of companies were dead weight. The bigger the company, the more dead weight. Especially departments like marketing and HR...
The same holds true for the engineering departments unfortunately...
I've been calling it for about 15 years now, and this is my opinion of course: At most places I've worked, you have a bell curve distribution. A smattering of trainees you can absorb, the bulk of staff are junior to mid, and then a small amount of senior ...
I started in very small startups where I had to do many jobs...
...including packaging, collateral, branding, marketing, writing, advertising, photo shoots, press checks, press releases, etc. I enjoyed the chaos of that. As I got older I concentrated on branding, graphic design, and print/web when it was getting start...
If the long term impact of AI is as many are saying here
What’s to worry? We would all be toast; everyone. When entire societies collapse everything stops: large scale food production, water supply, waste systems, etc. The human race has survived dark ages and global catastrophes before, it may somehow find its...
Tax extreme wealth at 99% in that case.
It may not sound popular among the extremely rich, and apparently I’m neither a communist nor a socialist, but for me, wealth above (and I’m just giving an indication) 1 billion euros should be taxed at 99%. Extreme — and I mean EXTREME — wealth is not ne...
These companies over-hired when hiring was cheap and attributing these cuts to AI makes their AI products look good.
That is why the people selling AI are always talking about how dangerous it is. Just look at Claude Mythos which Anthropic is trying to pretend is some sort of WMD.