Ornatus-Mundi
[Zenith]
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The Slice 'market intelligence' numbers are fundamentally flawed...
since they are not sales or shipment numbers. Instead, they are a kind of 'survey' numbers from people who volunteered sharing their online purchasing data through a smart phone app published by Slice.
The Slice app can only track sales finalised through its users, from online sales only. It cannot track sales (i) outside US and (ii) done in retails store such as the Apple Store. Thus, it omits a largs percentage of sales of Apple products.
Thus, there is a bias.
Furthermore, Slice itself reported in mid May that only 48 percent of Apple Watch orders had been delivered, indicating that its steep drop in sales reflected orders, not sales where buyers had taken possession of their new Apple Watch. This directly contradicts the idea that demand for Apple Watch has collapsed, as the data Slice published is not a measure of supply reaching demand, but rather of an initial demand peak that supplies have only recently grown to meet.
There is a second type of bias: Slice data compares Apple Watch sales ($350 to over $10,000) with FitBit health data counters ($150 and $250), which is not actually a perfect match. Now Slice reports "850,000 Fitbit devices sold versus 777,000 Apple Watches" - please calculate the revenue yourselves... even using the lover Apple Watch price against the higher FitBit price.
Another very interesting Slice data is this (FitBit: purple ; Samsung Smart Watch: black; Apple Watch: orange ):
Note the sales number around launch date? Only five times has FitBit sales (according to Slice data) ever reached above 200,000 sales per week, and across 2014 the company's sales only reached above 100,000 sales per week during the Christmas holiday season. However, in its launch week Apple Watch U.S. sales opened at over 1,300,000 units (according to Slice): essentially a year's worth of FitBit sales in one week.
Note the sales number around launch date? Only five times has FitBit sales (according to Slice data) ever reached above 200,000 sales per week, and across 2014 the company's sales only reached above 100,000 sales per week during the Christmas holiday season. However, in its launch week Apple Watch U.S. sales opened at over 1,300,000 units (according to Slice): essentially a year's worth of FitBit sales in one week.
Furthermore: where are the Samsung smart watch sales? They have had really some early starters advantages (and a two years of sales experience...).
So much about Slice. But what about the Swiss watch industry itself? It feels the impact already, as reported by the Federation of The Swiss Watch Industry itself. the official organ of the Swiss watch markers.
They are alarmed and already can track an impact of the Apple watch on the sales of the lower to lover middle market tiers. I have the numbers at home but right now no time to put an article together.
I hope to be able to do so in the course of next week.
Bottom line: the Apple Watch is a disrupting device.
Cheers,
Magnus
Apple Watch Sales Plunge 90% - What are your thoughts?
PuristSPro, an online blog and discussion website, invites its readers from around the world to comment on the social impact of the Apple Watch. I live in Silicon Valley, the enclave of tech worldwide based in Northern California near San Francisco. Livin...
I can't wait...
to find one being sold real cheap in ebay to put a real watch movement in it. Don
Oh, that's a good idea...
A RETRO Smartwatch! The crown will have to be adapted, since the Applewatch crown is off-centre.
Always difficult to predict the future...
I'm not a fan of the Apple Watch. But I believe that there will be future need for this watch in other arenas that will affect all of us in the future. Ten years ago, Blackberry made it a necessity to have email on your phone. Then Apple's iPhone made it ...
The Slice 'market intelligence' numbers are fundamentally flawed...
since they are not sales or shipment numbers. Instead, they are a kind of 'survey' numbers from people who volunteered sharing their online purchasing data through a smart phone app published by Slice. The Slice app can only track sales finalised through ...
Good data!
Thank you for your insightful post. And I concur with all of your statements.
Patrick, this is not about being right or wrong...
it is much more about the stakes which are 'at stake'. The Swiss watch industry has once nearly extinguished itself with arrogance. As Elmar Mock, one of the fathers of the original Swatch (and thus one of the fathers of the revival pf the industry states...
Quartz was disruptive too..
This watch is a total NERD toy. Then again, so were the first calculators and PCs..The good news for the traditional (mechanical/analog) Swiss Watch Industry is that the Apple watch and/or other Smart Watches will get folks wearing watches again instead o...
A thought or two...
Does it "help" society? No. It is a luxury item, and has been introduced at a time when the world's economy is struggling, a critical factor that will only worsen in the coming months and years. Regards, Tony C.
The world is crumbling...
China's stock market is crashing. Greece is defaulting. Europe is in turmoil. The United States is having major economic issues. The Rich are getting richer, when The Poor are getting more destitute. Running out of natural resources. Amazon Rainforest get...
A wrist-worn device could help the world if it had been designed to do so
but right now it's selfishly aimed at making you thinner and more fit and sleeping better and lazier. If instead it made you a less selfish, more conscious user of scarce resources ... If instead it gave you a pinch when you spoke rudely, or yelled at you...
I'd wear it!
That's a good idea... An App for the Apple Watch that was like your conscience. My "Conscience App" should have... 1. Napkin usage monitoring. 2. Buzz sound when I take a shower longer than ten minutes. Especially since I live in California where there is...
With all the sensors built in (or in the near future)...
you might get your wish fulfilled - faster than you thought! Cheers, Magnus
Hopefully it makes the world a better place, and more pleasant place...
So many rude people these days. And so many poorly behaved people. Humanity is disappearing. And lots of poorly behaved children, with either nonchalant parents or just poorly behaved parents themselves.
Wait til 2nd or 3rd gen
Hi I think it'll be rather like the iPhone- the first one was good but by the second & probably the 3rd gen they'd properly nailed it. It could also be a step too far - there's still no killer app or reason for having/needing one v I like Apple stuff ...
^^^ My exact thoughts
I feel like as time goes on it will become more and more technical and useful. I know someone with it and he said it was slightly annoying how everything buzzes at the same time. Phone and watch both vibrate and ding every time an email comes through. Inv...
That is annoying.
Scenario: I'm at a friend's home, an email comes in. The computer makes a noise, the iPad that we're looking at for the food we're cooking makes a noise, and the phone makes a noise.
yesterday I went on a wine tasting afternoon out
We were sampling wines for a big dinner event in the fall. All 6 of us at the table had an iPhone and so everyone was constantly getting buzzed, bleeped, urped and dinged. It was very annoying and that didn't even include any iWatches. ...
I see a computer too! Did someone bring their laptop?
Jeez louise, someone brought their laptop to a wine tasting afternoon?
Yep, laptop
But she\'s the chef who does wine pairings and has to remember everything. Someday if we do a San Diego GTG, we\'ll have fish & chips for lunch and Erin do a wine tasting dinner!
A gadget...
That's what I think it is. Similar to all other smart watches that have come out, Apple's advantage is a cohesive design and a huge fan base. However, where I think this will fail, and it looks like it is headed the way many others in this space have gone...
Initial hype over...
Guess no one left in the queue to buy the watches so sale drop drastically. Beside it targeting different segment of people. If there any effect, it would be felt years later when they figure out what really work for the mass population like in the post m...
Failure compare to what?
Compare to iPhone, yes, it's a giant failure, but compare to any other watch company? Not so much, even if they only do 5M watches, that's 2B, if they sell 10M, that's close to 5B, how many watch companies are bigger than that? As long as Apple keep makin...
It's already such a financial success...
It's already such a financial success that it almost doesn't matter if the Apple Watch is a genius idea or not. A lot of people have gone out to buy one. Almost all of those who have procured one whom I know are unimpressed with the watch and don't think ...
100 000 watches sold per week? I know a lot of watch brands which would kill for that.
;) I don't know Apple Watch, never saw one, and unless someone from my friends, colleague or whoever has one, I will not see one. This watch belongs to a segment I am not familiar with, and I think it will be a competitor inside this segment, and only ins...
Likely - Slice today further detailed that Apple sold 3 mio. watches in the US...
since launch at an average price of US$ 505. Now let's calculate: that's a revenue of 1.5 billion US$. Now the estimated bill-of-materials for the entry level Sport watch is about US$ 82. 2/3 of all Apple watch sales are the Sport watch. Thus, I guess it ...
Looks like a good business...
Regardless of whether or not Apple's Watch becomes a viable product in the long-term, it's already a financial success for Apple.
Next time you come to California...
Yesterday, I was at a little gathering of say a dozen people in Mountain View, California. Three of that dozen were sporting Apple watches. Lots of Apple watch adopters here!
It's not a watch, it's a platform....
Time will tell if the iWatch is a success..but keep in mind that like the iPhone has become, the product is intended to be much more than its primary function. I'm sure Apple has lofty ideas of how the watch can transform your life be in through fitness, ...
The iPhone is more than just a phone...
The iPhone is more than just a phone, it's a tool. And why do they charge so much more for the bigger storage capacity of the iPhones? Because it allows the phone to be different things. Those apps can basically transform an iPhone to be a point of sale p...