Baron - Mr Red
14613
Wow! Vintage Rolex prices can go down as well as up! My take on the recent auction.....
Lot XXX - Not for Sale
For the last several years, we have seen auction after auction where prices generally grinded (often shooting) higher. Big crowns, Paul Newmans, GMTs.....it hasn't happened across all references, but quite a few of the vintage Rolex spectrum have seen nothing short of spectacular increases. Many, on this forum, have declared vintage Rolex to have assumed the role of "King", succeeding Patek. I remain a sceptic there.
Well, yesterday's auction in Geneva proved to be a fairly big disappointment. Moonphases seemed to be more in vogue, though not overwhelmingly. There were a number of Paul Newmans and to be honest, the quality of the range varied from 60% up to 90%+. Prices varied accordingly. I thought the days of picking up a Paul Newman for $70k had long gone. Seemingly not. Yet, on the other hand, another Paul Newman that came with an enormous degree of controversy scored a hammer price of $400k. Having said that, this was well shy of expectations that saw some anticipating the $1m mark being broken. Big crowns frequently failed to reach reserve prices and failed to sell. Good quality Comex or Comex with some twist generally beat estimates, but only the generally low estimates by Christies.....results were soft in comparison with recent auctions. A 1675 GMT was a stand-out winner...coming in at 6-times the estimate.......a cool $200k. But then I guess it helps when the watch in question has a blue bezel and was made specifically for his Highness Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, carrying the crest of the UAE Ministry of Defence. Another GMT 1675 for his Highness scored $90k compared with estimates of $30k.
Yes, there were some winners. Some clear losers and a large amount that came within very conservative estimates that were way down on previous auctions.
What do I make of it?
Well, if I am honest, and I do recognise that one person's view is (especially in vintage Rolex world) NOT an authority......but my general impression is that the overall quality of the watches was on the low side. In the Geneva auction earlier in the year, there were some true killer watches for sale....some really big stars. I am not sure that can be said for November's auction. Yes, of course, there were some star watches, but to really get a buzz, I think you need 10 or so "buzz" watches. This auction failed to deliver on that score. So many collectors were not playing at this auction. Dealers are constantly looking for quality stock to sell and basically are having trouble finding enough. The result is that the auctions start to dredge, and the auction results reflect that.
Yes, yesterday's auction was a disappointment for most. It failed to provide the excitement or indeed the novelty of recent auctions. $1/2m Daytonas with Omani dials were not evident yesterday. Ironically, the star of the show was a GMT 1675...I think that says it all.
Has Rolex lost the vintage shine?
No, because the reason for yesterday's humdrum results was primarily a lack of quality vintage pieces for sale. A lack of supply is rarely a sign of a bubbled market. I think yesterday's poor auction is a harbinger of what will likely be another surge in prices. Basically, collectors who have quality vintage Rolex are just not being enticed into selling at current market prices. To entice, prices seemingly need to rise more.
For me, it is a lose:lose scenario. I did not even bid in yesterday's auction as could see nothing I wanted for my collection. The highlight of my day was winning a betting pool guessing the price of the controversial Paul Newman. I guessed CHF 390k hammer. It came in at CHF 380k. I win 5 Nato Straps....yeah, that actually got me excited! When quality of stock drops, I lose as I don't get a chance to pick up watches I would like to own. Yet, I also lose insofar as if prices need to rise to entice interesting watches into the market, I have to pay a lot more. Lose.
Yep.....collecting vintage Rolex is a painful game for sure.
This message has been edited by Baron on 2014-11-11 06:10:37 This message has been edited by Baron on 2014-11-11 06:14:32 This message has been edited by Baron on 2014-11-12 06:13:27
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Wow! Vintage Rolex prices can go down as well as up! My take on the recent auction.....
Lot XXX - Not for Sale PuristS has a policy of not talking about the price of watches. For example, its not forum policy to discuss the attraction (or not) of a watch that is about to be auctioned. On the other hand, discussing an auction after the event ...
Thanks for sharing your opinion Baron
I had been wondering about the seemingly conservative estimates and followed some of the auction from the side line. I am in no way qualified to judge the quality of the lots solely from the "mug shots" provided in the catalogue, and the condition reports...
Hey Nikolaj....i take a different slant
I think the price for quality vintage is extremely strong, but the price for lower quality is not being driven by the same demand. Look at yesterday's auction....for many lots, there were NO telephone bidders at all. Demand for mediocre pieces was very lo...
J.. Very educative thoughts.. and a pretty sharp analysis.. Food fir thoughts, as well
.. increasingly , although it's a still on a quite modest & humble level, I started to develop a deeper understanding of your, Nico's advice & some others' positions & opinions. - To be honest, my 1675 GMT Vintage/gilt took me more than 2 years and it's e...
I am not that surprised to see prices calming down...
High or down, that doesn't mean a lot.... It dépends on many factors... Bidders, quality of the watches, history sometimes, well.... If you see a DRSD MK II PP Brown dial for 10 K Euros, I am in! :) :) :) All the best, my friend. Nicolas
Prices on the MK2 tropic PP have indeed collapsed....
......from 30 quadrillion down to just 100 billion.....
I am not sure prices calmed down.
It is just the lots were not inspiring. Mediocre watches (quality) fetch mediocre prices. Quite simple. best Edmond
See things the same as you
Joe- well written. I was in the auction room and despite the auctioneer being quite capably, the auction seemed to 'drag' on. I think the biggest problem was twofold: 1) The quality was just not there. 2) I also think that lack of Rolex leadership at Chri...
well usually
final value depends on quality but also on originality .. LOL LOL LOL here is a clean example of a fake " explorer dial " that went happily unsold : ...
but on the contrary ...
a blatant fake " explorer " dial for 5513 was sold ( btw at a price much lower than genuine ones .. LOL LOL LOL ) : simply incredible ! ...
A Great POV on Rolex auctions
Supply and quality. The demand is always there when the ingredients are right. It seem also dealer tweets can have an affect on the market as it seems to have spooked buyers away. I am not talking specifics as I was not there but it seems enough doubt rub...
for sure !!!
many collectors have the same feeling .. at least the few dozens that has sent me an email in the last days.
It sucks the fun out of collecting
But i am still in. I use my best judgement. And still make mistake but enjoy the journey.
But here is the irony.....
.....people seemingly pay MORE money for a watch that kills you with radiation!! I remember once that the issue of global warming was being debated in the UK parliament....this was when it wasn't really understood. One politician stood up and asked...."So...
