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My view

 

Bill,


Again I am not sure I agree with you completely.
In investments (which is my main business) I think it correct to think of valuation bands (in fact to not do so can be very costly). But not when it comes to collecting.
You see collecting is a rational exercise to some degree but it is also an exercise of dreaming, of passion and of obtaining
what your after at all costs. To stick within your bands would have caused to miss out on the past two wonderful Rolexs
I have bought, a 1675 (where I set a new world record) and a fine 6536 where I believe also there has never been a higher price
paid for this example 6536-1. I should mention that both watches were bought at auction and therefore sticking to a valuation band
is more difficult especially if you have a bidder which is also after what you are. If you buy your watch through dealers (which I also do
from time to time) it is much easier. But the really top quality items usually appear at auction and are not sold privately (which is why
you see Patek, the 2499 of the world usually sell at auction and not privately).

I go after it with all efforts and I have to win at all costs. To lose is to lose not only an example that may never come to market again
but to lose the chance that you ever find a good example of what your after.

Again my view is clear: More people are after the top stuff and the owners of superb collections are reluctant to sell. You see this
in vintage Rolex but also in classic cars. One day the market will change and return to 'normality' but now I don't see that happening.

And the protoype Rolex Sea Dweller you sent: I bet you the buyer went way out of his valuation band to obtain that piece. Same with the 
fine Rolex JC 'Killy'  that sold for $600'000 in NY in December. You cannot stick to valuation bands when perfection comes to the market.....

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