Officine Panerai

Bill
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I would like to throw a curve ball

Setting aside that one movement may be superior to another movement as I am in no way qualified to make any comments or pass judgment.

Why is a Chanel leather belt $800-1000 dollars when a similar looking belt is worth $50.  They both hold up your pants.  You might say the Brand and the prestige associated with it.  And that is exactly correct.  All I am saying is there is not right or wrong.  It is our perceived value of the item and the perceived value of the masses attribute to it and this is what drives the price/value matrix.  In Panerai's case most of the economics seem to be focused on limiting supply  but this argument get shattered in some instances like the 127 example with 1950 psc.  Even the 1000 psc 217 is climbing fast.  This compared to 150psc example with higher end movements. 

If you look at the 127 and discounting the $6900 and starting with the last retail price of $9k (06) even at $25k it is a little over double and the PreV models at +/-$3k are selling at well over $30k a 10x increase.  I do not ever see the 127 reaching a 10x multiple.  So fast forward to today fewer will speculate on an Euro 18k watch doubling or tripling any time soon much taking the gamble at 18k  The 127 has some froth on it and has most likely peaked as have some of the preV model.  But factor the short supply of PreV you have a better chance of the price remaining high with very little speculators.

I'll bet if you ask Panerai what business they are in there answer would be broader than we sell watches.  They would something a kin to Xerox  who would not say we make photo copiers but "We are in the office automation industry"  or a cosmetic firm that doesn’t say they make skin creams but "We make people feel better about themselves."

So I think Panerai would have an answer closer to the cosmetics company.  The real question though is how will the maintain the perceived notion that most Panerai watches maintain there value as the supply and prices increase steadily?

After writing all this realize I have imparted very little.  Oh well.

Bill