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Horological Meandering

Funny!

 
 By: dr.kol : January 11th, 2014-13:51

I would have not accepted even a glass of water either. Also in our case the person was her. An arrogant woman who was dressed like just coming from a horse ride.

After that visit, my interest in Lange started to shrink. 

Best, Kari
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Sorry for the long post...

 
 By: iim7v7im7 : January 11th, 2014-14:27
Here is the "big picture" in my view:

1) Elevate the item from accessory to icon of lifestyle/luxury:

As mechanical watches move from a personal accessory to tell time to a symbol of accomplishment and a luxury accessory they need to drive this by a sense of exclusivity. The exclusivity was driven by the move to vertically integrated manufacture which really started about two decades ago. Only larger, well capitalize companies are in a position to afford such a strategy, particularly in volume.

2) Capture second wave of revenues:

A downstream benefit of this approach is captive service/repair revenues beyond the initial transaction cost. Let me illustrate the concept. Let's use an Omega Seamaster for my illustration. The watch retails for $6,200 and likely sells to an AD for about $3,500. The watch likely costs Omega $400-500 to make (internal cost-of-goods). So Omega might gross about $3,000 on a watch like this. Now let's look at service. Today SGUS will charge $525 for a full service in today's dollars. They will get this extra revenue every 5-years or so. Perhaps 50% of what they charge is profit on a watch like this given their overheads. So this becomes an important and steady source of revenue because you begin to get all the prior year's accumulated sales in for service. So say they sold 100,000 Planet Oceans in one year and grossed ~$300M in sales. Now imagine that 50% of owners are compliant on service 5 years later. You start to get ~$12.5M in service revenue each year. As Duke Ellington said "nice work if you can get it".

3) Continue to drive exclusivity and profits through control of distribution channel:

The final leg of the picture is beginning to play out. The luxury conglomerates are moving towards capture more profit and driving exclusivity through direct boutique and internet sales. Let's continue to illustrate using SG's Planet Ocean. Today, as we previously illustrated, they likely gross about $3k per watch on a steel model. Now, lets eliminate the AD and stop any discounting that may have occurred and capture the full difference of $6,200 to the $500 it cost to make ($5,700). So they can now sell about 1/2 the number of units and make the same profit (albeit lower downstream service revenue).

That's unfortunately here I see things going. Perhaps it is a more sustainable model for the Confederation Helvetia, but I don't have to like it.

I suppose it is their business, and they are free to run it as they see fit. 

It really is the 3rd aspect of the strategy that bothers me the most because it values profit over loyalty and long-term partnership. When the industry was in ashes 30 years ago, a network of independent Jeweler partners (ADs) took shared risk, and helped the conglomerates build the brands to where they are today. Dealers with multi-decade relationships as partners are finding themselves in recent years being either cut off from access popular models, finding direct sales boutiques opening next door or abruptly discontinued as ADs. It is no longer a partnership. The conglomerates have a long-term plan and ADs in established markets are a necessary transition bridge until a new network of boutique and web based sales can be established. Contracts are year to year and an adversarial relationship exists today. Many dealers feel as if they are doing business with a competitor. 

Personally, I find most boutiques (not all) to be vapid showrooms of luxury lifestyle staffed with metro-sexual models and not resource of trust, product knowledge and place for a long-term dealer/client relationship. Its as if one is walking into a consultant's MS PowerPoint presentation. There is only so much champagne and cappuccino that one can drink in bathroom less downtown Meccas.
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Thank you for response.

 
 By: dr.kol : January 11th, 2014-14:49

It looks like that the sales are slowing down, even the sales of Patek. I hope that this will lead to a situation where we will have alternative distribution channels and that finally the paid prices start to move towards more sensible ones.

Best, Kari
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service is seldom (if ever?) a revenue stream

 
 By: ei8htohms : January 11th, 2014-19:23
I don't want to get into the other points which I find thoughtful and thought provoking, but I'd be surprised to find any brands make significant revenues on service. Watchmakers are expensive and watch servicing takes time. Polishers, clerks, customer service representatives, replacement parts, tools, facilities. All these things add up quickly to eat away at (or completely devour) service charges. Service supports sales.

_john

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I am with you here, John...

 
 By: Ornatus-Mundi : January 12th, 2014-00:20
I heard from several brands that after sales revenues cover costs - at best!

Magnus
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+1, John. This should be more often explained and elaborated, to get the " price under the

 
 By: amanico : January 12th, 2014-00:23

Service of our watches "

Best,

Nicolas
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Profits vs. Revenues

 
 By: iim7v7im7 : January 12th, 2014-02:55
John,

I agree that supporting a service organization is indeed a costly undertaking in terms of staff, inventorying parts, equipment and facilities. It also is scaled to ensure high utilization. Most routine service takes many months to do because there is a queue and the staff/facility are highly utilized. Most service by brands also costs customers a premium. There is most certainly profit built into this end of the business and I don't see it being a break even business. I think you were perhaps questioning profit of the business unit and not its sales which I was discussing?  Here is a link to Swatchgroup USA's Service price list for June 2013:


I still think the time it empirically takes (My routine service has taken 2 months to 12 months) reflects a highly utilized organization. I also think the fees charged reflect a healthy profit target on an assumed utilization of staff, fixed costs and component carry costs.

Regards,

Bob
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yes, profits

 
 By: ei8htohms : January 12th, 2014-03:50

I can't really say more, but just do some cocktail napkin math for a watchmaker paid $80k a year plus benefits and taking between three and eight hours to overhaul the movement (depending how complex it is). Add in $50 to $100 in parts. Factor in unpaid work on warranty jobs, goodwill gestures and comebacks (even if you're using the "fantasy target" number of 5% some brands throw around).

I'm not saying impossible to make money on service (independent service center do it obviously), I'm just saying the brands don't.

_john
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Some thoughts...

 
 By: iim7v7im7 : January 12th, 2014-07:33
John,

Let's follow your line of thinking a bit. 

If we fully burden the $80k/year salary by almost doubling it and use $150k/year. Divide that by 2,000 hours/year and you get $75/hour. Now, take your 3-8 hour estimate and you get $225 - $600 for your proposed time estimate. Let's now add the $50-100 in parts as you suggest. So we're up to $275 to $700 in burdened labor and components. Let's add 30% profit ($84 -$210) and we're up to ~$360 - $910. Because SG publishes their standard service pricing, I will use them to test my hypothesis that they are not "break even" business centers.

Blancpain - $580 -$1,940 (and by estimate)
Breguet - $660 -$3,460  (and by estimate)
Glashutte Original - $375 - $2,050  (and by estimate)
Jacquet Droz -  $560 - $1,300 (and by estimate)
Omega - $490 - $1,280  (and by estimate)
Longines - $225 - $610  (and by estimate)

Sure warranty work is a negative factor on that group, but some assumed percentage is factored into the standard cost of the watch when sold. Also, keep in mind the direct sales approach captures both the wholesale/retail side of the profit (minus boutique costs).

I do think even with the costs outlined above and profit applied, there is room to ensure business unit profitability. I also think that publicly traded luxury conglomerates like Richemont and Swatchgroup don't make business moves without profitability and their shareholders in mind. Perhaps to your point, product quality issues negatively impact the best laid business plans.

We obviously disagree on this point which is fine. Thanks for chiming in a contrarian opinion though. I greatly value your opinions and perspectives as a watchmaker. 

My $.02,

Bob

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a little more

 
 By: ei8htohms : January 12th, 2014-17:02
Ok, first of all nobody puts in 2000 hrs of real service work per year. Assuming 4-5 weeks of vacation/holidays/personal days (at my company it's more like 7-8) and even as little as 10% time invested in setup/cleanup, training, tool maintenance, etc. you're lucky to get 1700 hrs on actual service work.

But the real problem with those calculations is that you didn't touch ALL the other staff, technical and otherwise. I only included watchmaking because it's the most time intensive and highly trained (read: expensive) part of the operation, but the diagnosticians, polishers, case assembly and quality control technicians all command a decent salary as do the clerks coordinating work flow, delivering spare parts, performing data entry and the phone and/or counter staff talking to customers. You don't have to trust that I know what I'm talking about, but I know what I'm talking about. smile

Hope we can discuss it over a drink should you find yourself in NYC some time.

_john

This message has been edited by ei8htohms on 2014-01-12 17:06:04
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John

 
 By: iim7v7im7 : January 12th, 2014-19:34
I am sure that I'd enjoy that...smile
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... which is the reason why many manufacturers invest to extend service intervals ...

 
 By: Marcus Hanke : January 12th, 2014-10:10
... and reduce repair effort and timaround. Simply exchanging parts, like in the car industry, is easier, quicker,and cheaper for the manufacturer. If I consider this a benefit? At short terms, maybe. But - like for the car industry, where technical knowledge and competence is massively decreasing with staff and therefore lost for the whole industry - at long terms, this might destroy what the love about the mechanical watches: the impression of sustainability and longevity.

Marcus
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Very well taken point.. Paradigm change forced.. Or simply tides of time ?

 
 By: hs111 : January 12th, 2014-14:02
.. your "warning call " should be heard and resonate..

Thank you, and have a good next week !

Best, hs

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Excellent reply - very valid points!

 
 By: Ornatus-Mundi : January 12th, 2014-00:18
particularly on your last paragraph regarding the crowding out of the retailer as the last non-brand controlled entity in the value chain (assuming that brand move towards a verticalised business model).

What you write here is not just an assumption but it is already reality. I talked to quite a few retailers here in Europe and they explicitly confirm what you are saying. During the quartz crisis, at the beginning of the renaissance of the mechanical watch and also during the 2008/2009 economic downturn brands were literally begging the retailer to support their business. Even in those difficult times retailers acted as true partners, took the risk and significantly contributed to the success of the industry as we are experiencing it now.

But the establishment of brand boutiques imposes a great threat to the retailers. Boutiques carry a wider range of watches of their given brand, might be able to offer exclusive models/service, get preferential treatment etc. Retailers are but off, confronted with unrealistic minimum order levels.

But I think there is also a great risk on the side of the brands. Retailers often have long term client relationships with certainly aid in dire times, offer a several brands (allowing the client to compare, change options etc.) and are financially independent from the brands. The latter point might be important if a given region face an economic downturn, the entire watch brand inclusive on their own boutiques are affected. Not necessarily the retailer in a different geographic location…

However, what we also have to consider is that all boutiques are not equal. There are those who are 100% brand owned an managed, and there are those who are operated under a sort of a franchise model by a watch retailers. The Blancpain and the IWC boutiques in Zurich or the JLC and Patek ones in Vienna are examples of the latter. Here I think the retailer is in a much better situation, executing his usual retailing model and enjoying the benefits of a brand-boutique as well. The brand itself profits from the in-depth knowledge of the local market, the client contacts and the infrastructure of the retailer - a win-win situation?

The fact that quite a lot of boutiques are operated under a franchise model indicates that the accrual of retailing revenues is not the major driving force. I think prestige (of running such a boutique at a prestigious location), herd instinct (my competitor has one, so I have to follow suit) and pure consumer-relations aspects (being able to offer the client a 'true' brand experience) seem to be important factors.

Cheers,
Magnus
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Very well said.. And perceived.. Thanks for explaining the store-in-store model ..

 
 By: hs111 : January 12th, 2014-14:10
.. and also its repercussions on both sides..
Very educational remarks, thank you !

Best, hs,
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