Horological Meandering

AP
End of Days
Juan Pablo Montoya
XX
La Boutique

Lange 1815 Moonphase

PP - basically, any high complication
also, Nautlius 3712; 3970; now, seemingly, the 5959

Various LE and the more rare Panerais (especially pre-Vendome/Richemont models, including original WWII Panerais)

Rolex Daytonas (only SS) and other vintage pieces

FP Journe Vagabondage

Are all selling way over even full original list price.

Yet very interesting and worthy pieces like the
Vianney Halter Antigua (or most VH's);

most of the very beautiful AP Jules Audemars and interesting Milenary models (the Maserati LE just might be too avante garde, but then, that's what create opportunities for "5 baggers");

most Blancpains;

most Vacheron's;

many Journes;

et al

languish quite a bit below retail.

Curious to read:

1. what other recent (post 1980) models and makes are doing very well, way above original retail?

2. what to you are underappreciated "unknown gems" that possess great upside potential?

3. Why?

TM

I thought the watches themselves are supposed to be the focus and as such price discussions and auction results and increase/decreasing monetary value, investment potential are taboo.

Even those that were, from the start, more ideological than practical? And when a large majority of the reading audience seemed to prefer it otherwise?

By that same ideology, your post would be deleted because it was posted anonymously, where the poster does not stand behind his own words.

No answers, just more questions.

TM

that's why I wrote "I THOUGHT it was not in the spirit . . ." Along the lines of standing behind your words, I have seen quite a few posts by you  (as the moderator/owner) in the past lecturing other posters who wrote about investment potential and auction results, retail prices and price premiums, so I just wanted to be clear on when it's okay to flout the general guidelines. I am not trying to incite or provoke, but want to uderstand your rationale. Sure the rules don't need to be followed strictly, but if that's the case then they shouldn't be followed strictly. Up to now, it seems that there is an emphasis on certain rules being  followed very strictly such as being civil and respectful, not linking to auction sites or shilling.  What's the point of having these guidlines if they are only sometimes followed? And who decides when is the time for them to be followed? I'm all for straying away from the guidelines every so often, but is that option available to everyone or just moderators?

Even more questions.

Respectfully,

A. Nony Mous

Maybe we should take this particular part of the thread elsewhere coz the original post was interesting!

I think it has to do with intent.  This was not a post which is asking "I want to buy a watch. Which of the following will rise in price the most? or which is the best investment in the long term?"

Clearly TM is not asking around for the next big "trade" in watches.  He was obviously just debating what makes a watch more desirable (often seen through pricing) and where watch collectors and the mass market will rotate through to next......

.

Placing an emphasis on the price of how much a watch sells for at an auction or on the secondary market cheapens the watch. That was the very original intent behind not discussing the prices, but rather the watches themselves, what they have to offer, not what the fleeting market makes of them. Clearly there is an increasing trend in limited editions (read: Royal Oaks) selling for huge premiums just because the market will tolerate it. And! there is money to be made in flipping the watches. There is a real frenzy out there now which undermines the integrity of the watches themselves and horology in its purist sense.
Regarding the guidelines, I repeat, I have seen posts by moderators discouraging these kinds of discussion for the same reasons I mentioned above: they undermine the watches themselves and the horology in them. The watches are reduced to mere commodities to be traded or sold off. I hope the moderators are not becoming  influenced by the frenzy of huge price premiums.
I think that whatever the community wants to discuss is up to them, but if a topic is emphatically discouraged for whatever reason in the past, as a general site guideline, then it should be made known if the site policy is changing or that the guideline no longer applies and all the participants should be able to talk about that particular subject, for example pricing and auction results. I am worried, however, if certain taboo topics can just become appropriate matters of discussion on the whim of the moderator only.

Trying to keep it civil,
ANM

Hi, ANM,

I hope my choice of literary metaphor itself is not too inflammatory...

"... auction results. I am worried, however, if certain taboo topics can just become appropriate matters of discussion on the whim of the moderator only."

Did you miss all the forum specific threads that WERE allowed when the Journe's went for crazy money, or the poor, underappreciated Speake-Marin's went for ridiculous low prices (but represented great "deals" for those who did appreciate them, beyond the dollars?

I don't mind someone pointing out inconsistencies in our enforcement of policies (hey, we are human!) but please, at least try to be fair to US, just as we try to be fair in considering comments like yours.



And just to keep this on an even keel, don't you, just a little, think, ESPECIALLY after JC clarified, and I explicitly agreed he was reading it right, that this - 

 "if certain taboo topics can just become appropriate matters of discussion on the whim of the moderator only ." is more than a little malapropos here, and hints at just a little bit of rabble rousing for the sake of rabble rousing? (emphasis mine)

As JC appropriately suggests, if you really feel strongly about this, please start a new thread.

Thanks,

TM

Seriously, I think the fact that your post remained was, hopefully, a powerful statement in itself. BUT, many readers seem to only want to see what they want to see, read into what they want to read into...

You raise some awfully valid and important points, ones which, so long as the discussion doesn't derail the original thread, or descend into personal invective flames, can and should be discussed.

About your last question - can straying from guidelines every so often be open to eeryone, or just to moderators?

My "PuristS" answer is, "Of course! What's good for moderators, should be good for the community."

Where I think this tack quickly gets off track is, "then who decides what is okay to give a little leeway to, and what gets shut down immediately?"

When this was just TM's little corner of the Internet Universe, it was easy - ME! and hopefully, there was some stylistic and ideological consistency, even if not everyone agreed.  As I have written many times, I HATE DOGMA!

BUT...now that we are global, with visitors many 1000's of times more than most would think, and need a moderator and admin team who need clear guidelines about policy, this flexibility becomes much more problematic.

Just as I find ludicrous the old boomer rational, "we're destroying the village to save it!" I also find it nothing but self serving BS when someone screams "freedom of speech" or "no moderatorship" - yeah, right, whatever.  Our tenor, and our flexibility to consider EACH AND EVERY case on its own merits, but in the CONTEXT of the overarching site policies and rules, is what sets this site and community apart from others.

And, JC seems to get it...

;-)

Cheers, and hopefully, my comments clarified more than it muddied?

TM

I see your points and am glad you see mine. Like I wrote if the community wants to discuss pricing so be it. I think it should just be made clear that such discussions are okay.
As for me, well, I think my feeling about crazy hyped prices is clear from the post above. I value the watch and if it sells for 5% of its original list price that's fine cuz I ain't selling anyways.

Regards,
ANM

but only the "super wealthy" would never consider the price point of anything. IMHE, self made wealthy people got that way, in part, because of their discriminating tastes vs. value equals purchases.
If you think any rich guy likes to "blow his paper" on frivilous trinkets that have no residual value, guess again.
So maybe we need to readdress the "pricing issues" in our discussion, provided they don't become our focal point. Just MHO, Miki

I suspect some Purists are so mind blown reading this that they cannot possibly formulate a response

Off the top of my head, Dufours seem to be missing from your "appreciated" list, although there is no established secondary market so this is more a theoretical projection.

The first one that springs to mind is actually on my wrist currently.  I have to come back to the GP 3-bridges Tourbillon as a paradigm for under appreciated and under valued.  I really cannot understand the incredibly low secondary market for this piece given it's top notch execution, universal admiration, uniqueness, and relative rarity.

The 36mm round AP Quantieme Perpetual is a head scratcher for me too.  I understand that it is a bit small by today's standards but mid to high 4 figures?!?!  If Patek were on the dial it would be many many times more valuable and arguably be of lesser quality given the outstanding movement that is in it.

One last watch I always consider a bargain is the VC Malte Perpetual Chronograph.  It is a direct competitor to the Patek 5970.  I personally feel it is a better looking watch than the Patek with its beautiful engraved moon disk.  It is certainly of comparable quality.  And, I have no knowledge of actual production figures, but I cannot imagine it is produced in MUCH higher quantities if at all.  Yet it sells for about half the price of the Patek.

Those are just the first few that hit me, let me think a bit more.

Vacheron much less popular in the Western world but a significant brand in China.  In China this is THE brand to own along with PP..... but due to price point this is more popular.

Nothing in their line up excitws me that much..... most interesting is their Lemania Chrono Perpetual, Malte Chrono.   But they are not unique and they are not the "best" out there.... their PP equivalents are often seen as superior. 

Is this the difference?  The lack of a unique and/or superior quality?  going through your list one by one:

The AP's you mention all have a unique styling aesthetically,
The Lange 1815 Moonphase is incredibly accurate m/p I think
PP - is just PP and their complicated models are very rare, along with histry etc
Panerai is another uniquely style watch and older wtches are obviously rare
Rolex Daytona..... never really understand, but this is the ultimate mass market luxury watch that everybody in the world knows
FPJ Vaga...... just 1 freaky auction selling at 90k?

Undiscovered Gems?
Dato - Readily available and with all the price rises over the last few years by everyone, no longer seems "expensive" in relative sense!
Resonance, still selling at big discount. Definitely not underappreciated, but "cheap" for such a rare/unique watch
Choppard LUC - Most models are fantastic. 1.96, 9.96, Perpetual, Strike One, new Chrono.
Blancpain does offer great value new and old. Split second is affordable, Perpetual with adjusters under lugs is cool, monopusher Chrono, the list goes on with their useufl complications done in their own special way.
Ulysse Nardin - The Perpetual GMT movement.  So unique and if found in a PP would be attched with huge price tag. cheap new and used
Glashutte Pano - Germany's "second" brand but their double swan-neck in thie range seen from the back is very very nice!  The Panograph is a most unique and interested chrono.

Clearly, I think that most if not all watches that sell significantly above list are rare and/or unique, by no means does it mean that all rare/unique watches sell above retail!!!!!  This is the missing X-Factor. The Undefinable

I own a Master Geo.  This was my first proper watch.  I love it and I also admire all the watches they make at a realtively affordable price.  Yes I understand the marginal improvement in accuracy, type of coils used, parts and finishing is huge, but you got to say that the price of the AMVOX 1 and 2, the Master Perpetuals, their alarm watches, distinctive Reversso (which is not my taste) etc etc etc is incredible. 
needless to say this is topped off my truly innovateive high end complications like the Gyro, Master Minute Repeater etc, Tryptique.....

Long Live JLC!

My Favs based on bang for my buck, overal manufacture, prestigue, exclusivity, uniquesness are PP, Lange, JLC, UN, FPJ, LUC's, BP

I am still awaiting my first BP and Lange from my list above..... am sure it wont be long now!

. . . is Dornblueth . . . a friend of mine was offered a few hundred dollars over retail for his steel 99.1 by a watch salesman at a major NYC retail store.  The degree to which they're hand-built is, I think, an attraction for many enthusiasts.  Cordially, Art 

Its great the way the initial issue was quickly closed (with JF not initiating an invitation to a shoot out at dawn!) - being a regular visitor to this site, I can quite understand where the Anonymous pitch came from; however, having said that, I feel TM's intentions were different & his thread was not broaching on what has erstwhile been considered by the Moderators as the (un)broachable....

Art, your comment on Dornblueth is very apt - I won't dwell on the pedigree, the comparisons & the level of hand finish - this has been commented upon earlier. I would like to add, I have a month old SS 99.2 and it has gained approximately just about 15 secs. in this period. Regularly worn and wound - Pretty accurate, right?

. . . half a second per day phenomenal, especially considering it's 2.5 hz operating frequency.  A steel 99.1 or 99.2 is one of the very few watches I'm considering for my own collection, after a G O 1845 Karree and an RGM 222; I really wanted to get a steel 04.0 last year, but the opportunity to land one more G O Karree perpetual got in the way.  Congratulations on the Dornblüth, and hopefully it will retain it's miraculous adjustment for a long time to come . . . cordially, Art 

many companies are successful in inflating their prices through HYPED marketing and of course with the help of growing (robust?) world economies, many people can afford a "little" more luxuries... Now, you see good watches everywhere. Collectors have always been there, but new 'collectors' who are after more recognition/social status, rather than passion for watches, are also adding up...fast. Those who haven't had ROs or ROOs before suddenly have all the LEs. Nothing wrong with that but they did so fast 'coz the hype is so strong (everyone has one so I got to have it as well-kind of mentality), fortunately these people have money, lots of them.

That's why as the law of economics take place, supply < demand ---> prices go up.

Those brands which are not hyped (maybe not YET) stay low and therefore the public ignores them. Take VC for example, I can understand why PP 5070 is priced way higher than Le historique chrono. Some say Patek made the alternation, bla...bla...bla... I think 2 things: a. Patek is THE brand to have; you own a Patek, you're ok; b. The size is 42 mm (?) compared to Vacheron's 37mm. Big watches are in now (again, the hype is there), small watches are for granpa's...so I was told.

Thomas, excuse me for rambling. As always, with this kind of post I always write that these are "my personal opinions". 
MANY will disagree with me, of course...

Thank you for a wonderful forum.

in an auction to be held 28 Mar. i think 37mm is a very fair size for a dressy chrono. in fact watches of this size fares pretty well in the secondary market.

in my opinion, the 5070 is market-priced. the reason being it as a rather faithful re-edition of an old chrono and more importantly because of Patek's sticking to its principle of not making anything of this size or bigger.  the premium is for its relative rarity of size and demand, and a possibility of a discontinuation.

but i have to add, as with stock analysis, human behaviour are the most irrational toward a hot sector /hot item. and it will remain a talking point that enhances attractiveness of the particular stock/ piece.

Thanks for kicking off this probe-worthy thread, Thomas.
There are numerous underappreciated/undervalued gems out there - Lange Datograph, early complicated Roger Dubuis (particularly in the Sympathie case with matching curved cystals), pink gold LE Reversos with high complications made in the 90's, complicated VCs, and the best complicated pocket watches...

As for undervalued watches, I like Steve's picks a lot.  The GP 3 bridge tourb has got to be the all time undervalued watch. All VCs are no brainers. Of all Blancpains, I think the Perpetual Chrono is the best buy.
I would also like to add the UN Freak, AP's ROO Polaris and Alinghi Dual-time.  How about the GO PanoRetroGraph?

G'day,


picture courtesy of Antiquorum

one aspect which might be recommendable to keep in mind is the age of a specific piece.
In the 1990´s, the list price of a GP Three Bridges was in the neighbourhood of 40K US-$; that´s what pieces of that age seem to go for in the auctions today (sometimes a bit higher).
Since 1990´s, a variety of price lists seem to reflect changes in distribution and, particularly, discounting; traditionally US prices used to be a LOT higher than european prices before, which changed when discounting became a legal practice over here.

In real life, age and prior ownership seems to make a difference; most customers of the 3 Bridges seem to prefer a new and unworn watch and can afford to keep it (in previous conversations, an owner noted in his own, rather dramatical way not to "buy pre-owned shoes or underwear , so why buy an old watch"). 

Among the more appreciated pieces seem to be a number of Rolex models (such as ref. 1665 with cal. 1570) and IWC´s (Porsche Titanium chronograph, Deep One, Portugieser ref. 5441, 2006 "ceramic doppel" ref. 3768).
Not to speak of a Daytona

Cheers,

Peter

Especially on the 3 Bridges Tourb.   Did you mean that discounting used to be illegal in Europe?

i think the lange datograph is a "known gem" as many have mentioned, but prices in secondary market doesnt reflect it , reasons being good brand, beautiful finishing, innovative movement and my dream watch ( not vested yet) but i have a gut feeling it isn't going to be so soon, but being intuitive after it gets so many mention here.

so are breguet dress watches - "unknown gems", for its inspiration for many brands mentioning tourbillon, breguet hands.....in their description column (vested )

VCs are gaining recognition though, they aren't perfoming too badly in auction nowadays (vested).

of course , all in my humble opinion.

 

Lange Dato, Journe Original Tourbillon ( the one where you can see the remontoir in action), Lange 1815 Chronograph,
Journe original Resonance are way undervalued. Also, most VC vingtage chronos are under appreciated too.
I can't find any single Patek that is fairly valued though

As for Vianney, I think his Classic is a fair price but the Antiqua at the current price is too steep.
Meanwhile, Dufour Simplicity was a Great Value if you compare to Roger Smith Series 2 or vintage Calatrava, considering it is done by a Master and
only 200 pieces.

Personally, I think Dato and Journe Tourbillon are the best value in the market right now
Don't think it will be the same by next year.
Lovesss*CL

short for the 'available'.  Prices in the secondary market as a spot price merely reflect an individuals propensity to queue (or jump the queue).

I never have figured out the prices for the following:

1. MJLC Rose Gold Reverso series.  Iconic case, finishing was good, all original designed and manfactured movements and cases.  A common theme to the series and some horological innovations as well (think of the repeater and the chrono).  I just do not get it.  Compared to present offerings from the same company, this series (to me) represents the best horological bargains on the market today.  Why are they not sought after?  Who knows - my guess is that they are not /were not limited enough, perhaps too discrete and unassuming in presentation, no marketing connected with it. 

2. Some FPJournes - particularly the Resonnance have at times gone for less than I thought they would.  Perhaps too idiosyncratic in design?

3. AP RO OS Alinghi, RO Perpetual are also a ponder on why.

4. Roger Dubuis does not seem to do so well in the secondary market as well.

As to why others have prices spiralling upwards?  I can only surmise that there is too much money chasing particular models (for whatever reason).  Partially due to particular models having cache, but outside of that, it would be fun to think of a way of finding out beyond individual speculation and introspection.

Andrew H

Is the market for high end watches unique?  I suspect that the current demand for watches is similar to the demand for fine art, wine and other luxury goods.  Some factors: 

Growing market: The marketing power of the manufacturers and retailers and sites like this are growing the interest in high end watches. I suspect the same for other luxury goods.    

Secondary Markets:  The growth of the secondary market for the trading of luxury goods is creating additional liquidity that did not exist several years ago.  

New Wealth : The demand for all classes of luxury goods has increased dramatically with the increase in newly wealthy markets in Asia, Russia, India and elsewhere.  The demographic seems (anecdotal) younger, better informed with a strong aspiration to attain luxury goods and services.  

It would be interesting to index a bundle of luxury goods from several exclusive areas:  Wine, Contemporary Art and Watches for example, and measure price and volume over a period of time. I suspect that the markets would move in a similar pattern. 

Best,

Fathom V

How much of the apparent anomalies are due to the influence of websites such as this one and the specialist magazines?  Either negative OR positive influence (eg this is wonderful/lousy), or lack of comments not creating demand.

nick

Chuckles. In a strange way, it will keep the family heirlooms IN THE FAMILY and not be sold off to buy something else...like a sportscar or a ring for a girlfriend.

The temptation would be removed.

It's like having a clause in a will stating that the house can't be sold.

Should I worry that I seem to own many of the "undervalued" pieces?

-- Two PSMs (bought new)
-- A Reverso Repetition Minutes (previously owned by a contributor to this thread!)
-- A VC -- and what's worse, a simple Malte Squelette at that.  One coming up at auction for a fraction of what I paid new.

One watch that I didn't see mentioned was the AP EOT -- for once, I got a fantastic deal on a pre-owned piece -- but I have to say that the low price offered did surprise me a bit!

Also, I'm guessing if I ever went to sell any of the Parmigianis, I'd be more or less out of luck.  Nice in a way -- no temptation to sell pieces that I really love.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, I sold my 5015 just as it was on the verge of becoming a cult item.  Guess I should hold on to that Aquanaut! 

Best,

Gary G