Patek Philippe

I've been offered about THREE  5970's in the last two weeks, just today a 5970G. New in plastic, etc, etc.

What is the big deal????????

I keep turning them down, because I honestly believe the 5970 is not that hard to find. Yes, it will go up when discontinued like all Pateks, mostly all anyway, but...
Anyway, just doing myservice to the community.... 5970's growing on trees in my neighborhood. Reeeelaaaaaaaaax, and don't believe the hype.

Want a 3970/5970?  I can have 15 of them by Tuesday.  Want a Barichello or JPM Offshore?  Look on the internet and you'll find multiple of each within 5 minutes.

A premium is a result of demand exceeding supply at a given price. In the case of most of these models, it's the demand side that's strong. However, IMO much of that demand is driven from the perceived rarity of these models, drawing in speculators and fad buyers. When you look at the actual market though, there is no real rarity. All of them are produced in fairly high numbers (even a few hundred pieces is a lot for a $50k watch). What happens when the market finally realizes that there really is no rarity here? What happens when the next hot thing comes out and the huge segment of the market that are just fad chasers moves on?

... so many new collectors, speculators and fad chasers will have entered the scene that you won't notice any dip in price.

The only thing that can move mechanical watch prices significantly down is a worldwide recession. Mechanical watches are an utter luxury, nobody really needs them. (No, not even us when push comes to shove!) So when disposable income goes down more people will need money and fewer people will have money left to buy. Prices will head South. Until the next economic upswing, of course, when the party will resume like it never stopped...

Just my two billion's worth
Jos.

Very interesting statement. Could you sugest how to search, and what is a reasonable price for a new original 5970 g?

What difference does it make? No offense, but would you buy it if it was 'hard to find' ?

I thought people would buy $100K watch first of all - because they like it ;-)

....well.....ANY watch for that matter.....

they are not worth the money UNLESS they are rare, and since they are everywhere, they are not worth the money. On the other hand, value can also be viewed through the resale-lens, and seen this way, they are worth the money. But they are priced above list generally, even at certain sleazy AD's, supposedly because they are rare. Now, if I loved the watch for its own sake, sure, I'd buy it.

Shouldn't we Purists try to dispell the lie of  5970 and for that matter, 3970 rarity? If you have the money, you can find them any place practically.

I mean, a platinum 570 with arabic numerals--that's rare.
A white gold 2526--that's rare.
I could go on.

Unfortunately, forum guidelines prohibit mentioning AD's.  But please send an e-mail to [Email address suppressed for privacy] with the names of the AD's who have a 5970 waiting in stock to help me believe these are offered so freely.  I am not in the market for this piece, but will pass the names along to a couple of friends who have been waiting a long time and have not found anything except gray market pieces over retail.

I will then pass along to the fourm the total number of AD's I find out this way have one in stock.  I suspect the number will be very low.

The 5970 is a very low production piece with long waiting lists.  As I understand it, many AD's are lucky to get one per year.  If any watch is intriniscally worth $100K, it is probably this one, no matter the true rarity.

Patek may also release several pieces of a given reference at a time.  So there may be more than the average number available at a given moment, but this does not mean it is not very rare.

my view on the AD-having-a-5970-question. To some, they say they have one. To others, they say they don't. They do as they please to serve themselves first and foremost,  and to most importantly inflate the notion that the watch, and many other Pateks--cannot be had. And cannot be found. I am finding SOME Patek AD's to be highly  dishonorable. And greedy, beyond even the most cynical expectations.

If you would like to know who has these watches, email me.

The marrket for Pateks is virtually non-existent here in Australia. Have only ever seen one 2nd-hand Annual Calendar for sale in Sydney, and offered a new RG 5135 for A$64,000 (i.e. US $96,000 at current exchange rate!!).

No wonder I'm looking on the web, so would appreciate guidance on reliable, reasonable PP dealers. I'm not a collector or dealer, just wanting a premier watch for my retirement and75th year.

regpatek

i don't know how many dealers have 5970G/R in stock for the moment,
as normally they wouldn't put those high-end models in show case.

based on what i have been talking with "powerful" ADs in tokyo,
i think they are receiving 4-5 pieces at most, 5970R/G, per 1 year,
and they have NO prblem to sell them.

i know 5 grey dealers which immediately pay USD7,000 premium on MSRP,
which explains they have good customers who willingly buy ones.

5970s are VERY hard to come by, IMVHO.

HB

It suggests that a very large portion are being bought by speculators in order to flip.  That is a purely artificial market.

Think about this:

  A model that is limited to 10 pieces, is it rare?
  A model that is limited to 100 pieces, is it rare?
  A model that is limited to 1000 pieces, is it rare?

  If you have solid answer (either Rare, or not Rare) for any of the above questions, I believe that you are "biased" (IMHO).

Think about this again:

  A model that is limited to 10 pieces and only 5 people want it, is it rare?  <===let's call the watch model A
  A model  that is limited to 1,000 pieces but over 100,000 people want it, is it rare? <==let's call the watch model B
 
  What do you think now?

Ok, let's think about the following:   

   Assume 95% of the 1,000 pieces of model B were sold out. Then 50 are still available in various ADs.
   Now, there are 99,050 (=100,000 - 950) people out of the 100,000 people who wants to buy model B but did not get it yet.

   Due to various reasons, the ADs may:

     - keep the watch to the safe (and don't want to sell it now)
     - unwilling to show it to walk-in
     - fear to sell it to grey-dealer
     - etc...

   So, effectively, you "see" less than 50 available in the ADs...

    Under such situation, do you think many people out of the 99,050 people would be able to see/buy the watch easily?
   
In short, I believe that "rarity" is a personal feeling...

   if it happens that you are looking for an item for years but no luck in getting one, it is rare for you.  (people in group A)
   if it happens that you (due to various reasons) are able to find an "rare" item easily, it is not rare for you. (people in group B)

If you really want to define "rare" in absolute term, I would think that it depends on how many people are in group A and how many are in group B.

For 5970, I believe that it is "rare" in the "absolute" term (i.e. most people are in group A). There exists people in group B doesn't mean that ALL people are in group B or "5970 is not rare"... IMHO.

For me, I cannot / would not say something is NOT rare just because I can get it easily...

p.s.: All the numbers shown above are NOT the real numbers. It is just for illustration purpose.   

IMO 5970 is 'rare' otherwise you would see them everywhere. Only a couple of persons who see them lying around with no take ups must be the odd ones out or they must have speculative ADs/dealers who specialise in 5970s. But I'm pretty sure once the world knows the where about of those 'unwanted' 5970s they will be gone in a flash.

I personally don't think majority of us fork out $100k to buy a watch just because it is hard to get.
If that's your mentality, I feel sorry for you.
But then I know you are not that kind of collector. You have a beautiful 3940P and it wasn't rare at all.
You still bought it and you still do love it....that says a lot.
Now that it has discontinued and replaced by something 'quite similar', you claim to see the price increase in the secondary market.....
I'm sincerely happy for you
But just imagine ....if a watch which is 'plentiiful' discontinue and have such effect, what will happen if 5970G stops in the next few years ?
Do I care? No...I buy what I like and really do not care if it is that hard to get or not.
I personally have turned down 5960P before at list just becos it is not for me....but is it harder to get than 5970 ? Maybe.
Lovelylovely*CL

I guess I'm being misunderstood by everyone, except Steve.

Thanks for kind words, CL.

The 5970 rarity is, as Steve said, artificially created. Will the watch go up in value? Yes.

Is it rare?????

No, it is not rare.

I can buy one today, tomorrow, everyday this week, a new one. Yes, at a premium, but the premium does not prove rarity. It only proves that the lie of rarity is a successful lie, inflating the market.

I understand that we all have a certain interest in keeping pateks highly valuable, but why do we have to join in and promulgate the lie of rarity?

A rare watch is one that you can not find, no matter how much money you have to spend. A rare watch is one you come across once a year or two years, or less...

A 5970 is always available to anyone with money. That's my point.  I will now return to surfing the internet for a rare watch.

Mind to share with us about  the "rare" watch? Which one is the one in your mind?

(IMHO) As long as it exists, money CAN buy it. It all depends on "how much"....

Is the Sky-Moon Tourbillon (5002) "rare" in your mind? Yes? No?

It is going to be auctioned soon. According to your logic, it should not be "rare" by any sense as you can buy it easily with money.

Just my 2-cents.

One being for sale is not evidence of a lack of rarity.  In fact, just the opposite.  The reason we are all aware of this one that is for sale is because they almost never come up for sale.  The RM008 in the auction is another example of this.

Unfortunately there is no quantifiable definition of rare, but one knows it when he sees it.  That is what makes this an interesting discussion.  IMO, the fact that I can call ANY gray market watch dealer that I know of or simply do an internet search and I can have a 5970 on my wrist in 24 hours means it is not rare.

That is not even to say that rarity should matter.  My GP Tourbillon is very rare, but that rarity certainly does not make it a big winner on the resale market.  So don't take my words at anything other than face value....just presenting my opinion on an interesting subject.

I am 100% agreed with you on the following statement:

"Ufortunately there is no quantifiable definition of rare, but one knows it when he sees it."

As I said before, it all comes to the personal feeling.

Just found out one thing that's interesting....

   it looks like that the people (group X) who feel / believe 5970 is "rare" own the watch; and
   it looks like that the people (group Y) who don't feel / believe 5970 is "rare" do not own the watch.

Are we having:

   Group X people justifying their buy while
   Group Y people justifying their "not-to-buy"

This thread is indeed interesting... 

    To make the things more complicated, I think we can put the "rare" in context... i.e. "rare" from AD and "rare" from the market...

I will tell you one experience of mine. I did call to ask for 5970G in the past....2 gray dealers tell me they have
but none really have. When I want to commit, they ask me to wait for a week after the watch show.
They tried to get it from the show and sell to me. What a joke.
You really believe these 'dealers'?
I think you know better.
As for your GP tourbillion, you seriously think it is rare???? Don't crack me up
It is very very very Beautiful...that's all I can say.
Lovessss*CL

I will have a 5970 for you any day of the week   I have PERSONALLY seen and held at least 20 examples of this watch.  If you want a quantifiable criteria to dispute rarity, that certainly is one right there.

As for the GP, I know for a fact they are quite rare, especially if you are talking in relative terms against a 5970.  I would be surprised if GP produces even 5% as many tourbillons per year as Patek produces perpetual chronos.

It's not a contest though.  As I said, the interesting part of this debate is on the demand side, not the supply side.  Clearly there is much more demand for a 5970 than a GP Tourbillon.

and if you can help me locate one ,you said you didn't know anything about it. Now you are an 'expert' and have touched more than 20 samples.....
you sure pick up things really fast
As for your GP...if you get sick of it, you know who to call ;-)
Did I tell you it is Gorgeous?
Lovesss*CL

They don't interest me at all and I don't see the hype.  If I wanted a perpetual chrono, i would buy the VC Malte without a second thought (or a Datograph Perpetual if I was going to spend 5970 money).  You asked me what I thought about future resale of the watch and I simply had/have no idea.  It's impossible for me to predict because I do not get the whole Patek thing.

That doesn't mean I don't see them and get offered them all the time though.  I'm quite familiar with the watch, just not the psychology behind the market

I thought I was asking you what's a fair value to buy a 5970G from a dealers (since you know so many and have always gotten good price) as I was looking for one and can't find any.
You told me you are not familiar with the watch and hence don't know the price.
I don't think I regard you as a crystal ball to ask you about future value ;-)
You are a good helpful man who knows a lot and I respect that.
Lovesss*CL

Here is the email.  I hope you don't mind me posting it...nothing personal in it:

Hi Steve...I know you are quite an 'expert' in term of great deal and
pricing
I would love your thought on this.
Patek 5970 is currently retailing at $96 300.
If I buy it and change my mind later, how much do you think a pre-own
seller like (XXXXX) or others will value it.
I just want to know how much I will 'lose' when I receive this piece
from my dealer.
I look forward to your thought. Thank you very much.
Cheers...CL

If you look at the email...I ask how much I will 'lose', with open inverted commas.
I was trying to get the watch and try it on my wrist for a while to decide if I like it.
And I'm ok to 'lose' some money should I don't think the watch is right for me.
I buy watches to wear and try, and I'm perfectly ok with the prospect of 'losing' money for the experience.
I was asking you because you deal alot with the gray dealers and probably will know how much I will 'lose'
if I decide I don't like the watch after trying on my wrist.
I'm not asking you how much will I gain if I get this watch or what's the 'future' resale value.
You did misunderstand my question seriously and, as a gentleman myself, I'm very disappointed with you.
*CL

It is interesting that you bring out the comparison with Dato Perpetual...

    Could you share with us why you would pick the Dato Perpetual instead of 5970 if you were going to spend the "5970" money?

    Do you think that:

       1. Dato Perpetual looks better
       2. There is higher intrinstic value in the Dato Perpetual (if yes, which area?)
       3. It is better value (in terms of its selling price)
       4. It is rare
       5. It is Pt
       6. I like Lange no matter what...
       7. I hate 5970 no matter what...
       8. None of the above (please specify)

I think it would be extremly interesting to know why other would pick the Dato Perpetual instead of 5970.

I cannot imagine buying it though.  As I said, if I were to buy a perpetual chrono I would definitely go for the VC.  I like it more and it can be had at less than half the price.

if you are talking about Dato Perpetual vs 5970, I can say that the Lange is asking for around the same amount, if not more (even after taking into consideration that it is Pt).

If anyone see 5970 does not deserve its price, I doubt the Dato Perpetual does neither...

As usual, just my 2-cents.

Just wondering do you know how many Tourbillons are made every year in GP?  A few pieces? A few tens pieces? or A few hundreds pieces. I think you can find a better answer from Peter in the GP forum.

Let's assume that they made 300 pieces a year.

300 / 5%=6000.

If GP's tourbillon production were indeed less than 5% as Patek produces perpetual chronos, then you are effectively saying that Patek is making at least 6000 perpetual chronos in A YEAR!  If they were making that much, I don't think people would be paying any premium in getting one.

Hmm... actually, you may be right... it is a fact that the GP Tourbillon is "rare".... especially amongst  the grey dealers. I can barely see one for sale. If you compare it with 5970 in the grey markets, then there are in fact "many" 5970 in the "market" for sale. I am sure that any grey dealer will tell you that it is much harder to come by a GP Tourbillon than a 5970.

Just wondering if you don't mind (and absolutely no offense), could you share with us whether you get your GP Tourbillon from grey market ? If yes, did the grey dealer tell you that is is much harder to come by a GP Tourbillon than a 5970?

but from everything that I've heard, GP Tourbillon production is much closer to 30 yearly than 300.  I'm quite familiar with most of the gray dealers and have seen less than 5 for sale in the last 2 years.