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Great topic
So many good points have been made already. The watch industry reminds me of the Las Vegas tourism industry, where the Strip is converging on a strategy of fewer tourists, but much higher transaction prices.
I think the key is that most of the customers Rolex is selling to are not seeing their net income and wealth increase at 2.2% or even 5.5% per year. There are people growing into the cohort that purchases luxury watches, and the Swiss watch industry has been honest. If you're selling fewer watches, at a much higher transaction price, that means your product is becoming increasingly unaffordable - by design.
Those who are in their peak earning years now, may be on a fixed retirement income in 2040. That means fewer watch purchases per year. Otherwise, we cannot say, as the current trajectory of the Swiss watch industry will change, if the industrial base begins to really suffer due to underutilized capacity.
The long-term price divergence of the rolex submariner date (1995–2040): inflation vs market value growth ( and watches in general)
This chart shows the price evolution of a steel Rolex Submariner Date since 1995. I chose 1995 because that’s when I bought my first 16610. I still remember the price very well, it was €2200 at the time. Of course, that is converted into euros, because in...
can't agree more to every point you've mentioned !
unfortunately today the prices has gone ridiculous. Best, mahesh.,
and BTW ... Its only luxury watches
When I was younger (let's say late 1980's) my dream watch was an Omega Speedmaster. I was more or less 1100 euro back then, today it's close to 8000 euro A Plastic Swatch was 40 euro .... Today a similar Swatch is between 60 and 100 euro Omega: +627% Swat...
Darn UNstable Currency is the problem.
Home cost, car prices, food is expensive..... It's just basic mathematics. If a currency loses (realistically nowadays) 6% of it's buying power (Value) annually, after only 10 years how much Value has it lost? Blame prices all you want, tho also account f...
+1
Also, the transmission of newly "printed" money through the economy flows preferentially to the already well-off and wealthy, who obviously are disproportionately high consumers of fine watches, wine, cars, etc.
Will there be 2040???
Are we not following geopolitics? On another note… Collecting anything, watches, cars, stamps, homes, was always a privilege of the rich. Breguet, Michelangelo, and all other artists created for the rich, commissioned by the rich… Where I’m getting here i...
Great topic
So many good points have been made already. The watch industry reminds me of the Las Vegas tourism industry, where the Strip is converging on a strategy of fewer tourists, but much higher transaction prices. I think the key is that most of the customers R...