FabR[Senior Patek Moderator]
26166
Agree, I think this is a good point --- competition is definitely not exclusive to watches or hobbies (think of virtually anything in life!), but I agree it's getting harder to enter this world, even for people with passion, knowledge, funds, etc..
Aug 18, 2022,10:30 AM
Equally concerning or at least worth mentioning, the better brands might also lose existing collectors who can no longer keep up or stay at the very top ;-)
An example that I sometimes make and I find significant, especially now that Patek is becoming a tad better known among the general public, is the following: imagine that only *one million* among today's wealthy people (and there's many, many more! ;-) decided that they suddenly need a Patek Philippe watch in their life....then the TOTAL production in the ENTIRE 183-year history of the Brand would barely suffice to satisfy the demand! Make it *two million*, and you've also allocated ALL the watches Patek will produce in the next 15 years!!
Not sure if this is good or bad (or both), but we are certainly living a VERY interesting and competitive world my friend!
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How long is a wait for a watch acceptable?!
By: sham1 : August 17th, 2022-16:04
Of late, the wait list for many of the sought after watches have lengthened considerably. Some wouid be happy to place their orders and leave their deposits and wait for at least five years or more for a coveted timepiece. Others may find waiting anything...
For a first watch not a long time… For a 10th watch considerably longer.
By: myles721 : August 17th, 2022-16:11
It’s not hard to acquire a watch if you don’t have one… Plenty to pick from and then after that I guess it’s just a matter of supply and demand there’s really not much you can do about a waitlist except take your name off it, or be pleasantly surprised if...
Thanks Myles!
By: sham1 : August 17th, 2022-16:26
Hope that yacht comes your way one day soon! But willing to wait two years for a watch is not bad.
Neither am I Mike
By: sham1 : August 18th, 2022-02:31
unless someone invents a longetivity drug.
Absolutely!
By: sham1 : August 18th, 2022-02:05
I am now 59 so a ten year wait for anything would seem a bit too long.
🙌
By: Pun : August 18th, 2022-04:43
LOL!
By: amanico : August 18th, 2022-05:45
I would differentiate
By: penfriend : August 17th, 2022-16:56
sought after pieces from larger manufacturers: 2 years two or three-hand pieces from small independent brands: 1 year grand complications which are made on demand: 3 years in general I believe that life is too short for a waitlist of more than 1 year
Thanks for the breakdown!
By: sham1 : August 18th, 2022-02:18
Very objectively done. Although it might appear that a two or three handed watch might be quicker to make, sometimes the amount of work that goes into the movement and case finishing makes the entire process longer. I find it most intriguing for example t...
Agreed that finishing takes a lot of time, independent of the complication
By: penfriend : August 18th, 2022-10:05
However, I waited for my Minerva grand complication 1.5 years. The workshop in Villeret comprises only 12 employees and every single technical part including the hairspring is done solely there. They only source the case and enamel parts. So this would be...
You have a lovely Minerva!
By: sham1 : August 18th, 2022-12:54
And the finishing on these watches are always first class. I don't think any of the independents I have mentioned have any more than 2 to 6 people working on the watches. 12 would be unthinkable for many a small independent. Minerva of course has always b...
In the case of me "really wanting it"... As long as it takes, frankly.
By: BigFatPauli : August 17th, 2022-17:03
Here's the thing, with watches like the ones you are talking about, there is a very fixed, very limited supply of people with the skill needed to create them so production really can't be scaled. The wait times are a result of demand, something also out o...
Thank you Paui for elaborating
By: sham1 : August 18th, 2022-02:23
and it is collectors like you who end up with all the nicest things in life as many a time life is a test of one's patience. Or as they say, good things come to those who wait!
Take it from me
By: sham1 : August 18th, 2022-02:26
Six years is a long time even if we keep ourselves busy doing other things. Three to four years is doable for most.
Life is too short and unpredictable
By: sham1 : August 18th, 2022-07:55
so although we might be willing to wait for certain things to come our way, it is always best to live life to its fullest while we can and there is so much out there to enjoy. We are quite blessed in life and might aspire to fulfil even greater dreams and...
The good thing I guess is that
By: sham1 : August 18th, 2022-12:59
should we ever not want these sought after watches with long waiting lists, when they do finally arrive, we can part with them without losing any money. That is a consolation just in case our preferences have changed over time.
It depends on your bankroll...
By: mdg : August 17th, 2022-17:44
...if you can afford all of the watches you want, just get on the various lists and go about with your life. You never know when there will be a bubble correction and you will get them sooner than you think...
You are an optimist!
By: sham1 : August 18th, 2022-02:30
A correction? Unless independents start expanding and hiring more staff, the wait lists are unlikely to shorten. There also seems to be an increasing number of wealthy people craving for status symbol watches like the Royal Oak, Nautilus, Richard Mille an...
True
By: sham1 : August 18th, 2022-16:39
but I am not sure if this is a pendulum. It is more like a rocket!
The question for me is what makes it so unique that it's worth the wait
By: Dchang81 : August 17th, 2022-17:58
Can't really pony up the money to wait several years but I imagine that the watch would have to be so different than what I have to justify waiting half a decade. Something personalized or unique architecture or I already have everything else. Too many ch...
I do salute Frodsham in this matter
By: sham1 : August 18th, 2022-02:35
because they offer a refundable deposit which is very fair since 8 years is a long wait and anything might happen during that period. Saying that, apparently, only one customer has ever requested for a refund from Frodsham. Even I took 3 years before deci...
Hmmm….interesting situation…
By: Clueless_Collector : August 17th, 2022-18:20
What if, unfortunately, something happened (god forbidden) and someone put full deposit and the person or the watch brand is gone for good? Who will follow up with the $$$. I guess there has to be some visibility within the family or brand to honor and re...
Yes I think it is vital
By: sham1 : August 18th, 2022-02:39
that any deposit or amount paid in advance will be refunded if either the watch company or the client perishes. Saying that when I did meet Roger Smith in November 2016 before placing my order, I was forward enough to ask him what would happen if somethin...
Probably yes!
By: sham1 : August 18th, 2022-03:39
You see my Smith is being made by his team and I cannot imagine Roger himself making my watch. So should Roger not be around, the same process will be adopted with the same results. The Daniels anniversary for example was not made by George and completed ...
Great Question!!
By: Spencer Karrington : August 17th, 2022-18:59
For me depends! I think you make an excellent point above about how wait time will be naturally longer for small boutique makers BUT for Kikuchi Nakagawa i would expect at most a year but for bexei a couple of years (especially if it is customized for me)...
Thanks Spencer!
By: sham1 : August 18th, 2022-02:43
One really has to examine a Kikuchi Nakagawa to appreciate the amount of labour intensive black polishing that has gone into the case and hands. Although many of the parts including the movement are outsourced, these two gentlemen have arguably over done ...
To me it depends on how much you love it
By: andrea~ : August 17th, 2022-20:26
5 years for a Frodsham is acceptable to me, just like 6 for a Roger Smith, but anything over 3 years for a mass produced watch is probably too much. What bothers me the most though is the fact that with some brands you are not even guaranteed to ever rece...
I fully agree with you Andrea
By: sham1 : August 18th, 2022-02:46
I like to know how long I have to wait for a timepiece. Not being told to me is quite unprofessional for any brand but perhaps it is their way of telling us that we should not expect to receive one!
The waiting is the hardest part....
By: enjoythemusic : August 17th, 2022-20:38
So how long the wait, obviously a Rolex, Patek, FP Journe, or most typical brands are easy to get one way or another. For those who desire true art and craftmanship, rare talent realized... wait time is less a concern than receiving the most elegant expre...
I believe
By: sham1 : August 18th, 2022-02:52
people these days are a lot more impatient than they were in 1715 - many want things quick and are not prepared to wait resulting in the growth of the used market. I myself would never pay above list for anything but I fear that I am in a minority here. W...
Wait times
By: pmh6000 : August 17th, 2022-20:47
For me there are too many variables to wait 1, 2, 5 or more years. I seem to be able to find timepieces that I love and appreciate without worrying and waiting about things I cannot control. That’s just me.
Good for you!
By: sham1 : August 18th, 2022-03:18
I am glad what is readily available has satisfied your craving. It always a joy being able to buy something immediately. There is always a danger that while waiting, the passion for the object diminishes!
Interesting…..I feel that up to 2 years is bearable and more predictable.
By: S F : August 18th, 2022-00:27
3 mths wait time used to seem long but nowadays anything from 6-12 mths seems normal. For the brand itself, does it make sense to even take orders going into 5, 10 years esp for small independents with significant “key man” risk. Did they also acquire suf...
Fair comment!
By: sham1 : August 18th, 2022-03:24
Three years is a healthy waiting period. Some brands like Smith and Gronefeld (for the Principa) have closed their order books which seems logical although this has resulted in higher prices for their used models. Others like Frodsham and Kikuchi Nakagawa...
This is a. Great topic.
By: Bounce781 : August 18th, 2022-00:53
For myself, anything longer than 18 months is too long. No disrespect to the maker, but for me, the wait to acquire a piece diminishes the joy of ownership with every passing month. I also feel more affinity to the less established makers than the guys/gi...
We are spoiled for choice more than ever!
By: sham1 : August 18th, 2022-03:30
There are many brilliant independent watchmakers emerging practically on a monthly basis and although Dufour, Smith and Voutilainen are legends, the newer independents have also demonstrated a high level of craft. Of course one might feel apprehensive to ...
Waiting's not my thing.
By: Steve E : August 18th, 2022-01:10
Times change. Tastes and preferences change. What looks compelling today... years from now... maybe not so much. Something I find truly bizarre is buyers placing unsecured interest free deposits for a future delivery opportunity. In the interest of full d...
Waiting is not everyone's cup of tea Steve
By: sham1 : August 18th, 2022-03:33
In fact, I am pretty sure that you are not in a minority/. At the end of the day, it all bores down to how much we desire a certain object versus our patience. I am known to be an impatient person for most things but am happy to wait for something I feel ...
It is always a matter of priorities
By: sham1 : August 18th, 2022-05:10
Some would prioritise a home over a car, a car over a watch. Others might prefer a yacht to a sought after watch. If we want something badly enough, we will wait for it.
Fabrizio, your formula is unique! :-)
By: sham1 : August 18th, 2022-03:36
I am pretty sure no one else has ever thought of such a formula or will ever think of it! And I sure hope that you do not have to wait 183 years for your next Patek even if you are happy to do so
I am less sure Fabrizio!
By: sham1 : August 18th, 2022-05:08
58 years plus for a Rolex will only result in the prices of second hand Rolex watches increasing in value to Patek minute repeater prices!
;-))
By: FabR : August 18th, 2022-05:21
That is for sure!
By: sham1 : August 18th, 2022-05:12
I am not sure about everyone else on here but my watches will end up as a large part of my estate when I perish one day, definitely exceeding the value of my cars.
I do feel sorry for new collectors
By: sham1 : August 18th, 2022-07:48
who want to start collecting these sought after brands. They have the money, they have the passion but they may not be allocated the pieces as they do not have a purchase history. It is almost like an exclusive gentlemen's club where entry is impossible.
Agreed Fabrizio!
By: sham1 : August 18th, 2022-12:56
I am just happy to own one Patek at present and my target is three Pateks which will be about 30% of my entire collection!
🤞👍👍❤️
By: FabR : August 18th, 2022-15:11
My dealer in the UK did tell me
By: sham1 : August 22nd, 2022-02:37
that almost every Patek is now an allocation piece! Such is the demand for our favourite brand
Thanks Fabrizio for your invaluable input!
By: sham1 : August 22nd, 2022-16:32
My only concern is whether or not my AD considers me a 'top' Patek collector. Firstly, how long before they allocate me a 5226G. And arguably more importantly, will I be allocated a 5231G?! Watch this space!
What shirt?!! :-)
By: sham1 : August 22nd, 2022-20:59
That is an amazing watch!! Thanks for sharing.
😂🙏🙏🥂
By: FabR : August 23rd, 2022-01:41
Many of us are in love with the rare handicrafts produced by Patek
By: sham1 : August 23rd, 2022-12:35
But it is actually good to see someone we know obtaining them! Apart from Gordon, I know not of anyone else who has amassed such a large collection of enamel dial watches. Well deserved to a staunch supporter of the brand - no wonder you are the Senior Mo...
I think waiting isn’t worth it
By: cazalea : August 18th, 2022-03:58
I waited a year for a car that never came - indeed the dealer said “we never promised it”. I waited 20 months for my 2021 Corvette and when it came I was disappointed and after 90 days passed it on to someone else. I’ve been on a list for a Cybertruck sin...
Well I have waited 20 months for a F8 Tributo
By: sham1 : August 18th, 2022-04:13
which should arrive in two months time and I sure hope it does not disappoint me. And if it does then I can always sell it at a premium since the order books are closed. The wait for the car has been most pleasant and that I attribute to the dealer who ha...
Fair enough!
By: sham1 : August 18th, 2022-13:05
The Kikuchi is obviously at a lower price point too while the others you have mentioned are high horology pieces. I have two perfect watches currently in my collection. When I say perfect, I mean in every sense including lugs, crown, strap, weight, height...
They make good watches!
By: sham1 : August 18th, 2022-12:57
I am sure they will happily take your deposit and get a watch to you faster than five years.
So many variables here.
By: nafetS : August 18th, 2022-11:22
In general I‘d say if I‘m just on a waitlist, without down payment and without binding order I might still take a watch after 5 years when offered to me. If it‘s a binding order with down payment I‘d go 3 years max and that‘s only for a really special wat...
Thank you for your thorough feedback!
By: sham1 : August 18th, 2022-13:08
You make a lot of sense actually. The perfect watch is very subjective - for some it might be a Voutilainen or a Dufour. For others it might be a high end complicated timepiece. But I think if we desired a watch enough, we would make an any excuse to buy ...
Patience is a great virtue... so do not mind waiting years
By: ambel : August 20th, 2022-15:05
Already waited +3 to 5 years for some independants delivered or in the making (Coyon, Bexei, RW Smith,...) up to 7 years (same as you for Frodsham). As still young (from '78) would absolutely have no problem waiting for over a decade. The only thing is: w...
I could not agree more!
By: sham1 : August 20th, 2022-15:14
Dealing with independents has indeed been a pleasure especially when one is dealing directly with them and not through an authorised dealer. This is especially important if one is ordering a bespoke piece so as to avoid any misunderstanding as to the fina...
Thanks for your feedback!
By: sham1 : August 21st, 2022-01:55
Five to seven years waiting is indeed a demonstration of patience for one's passion! Unfortunately, that is the average these days to wait for a special timepiece.
Overnight.
By: TheMadDruid : August 21st, 2022-17:57
JK! I waited 9 months for my RQ-which seemed like an eternity. Now the wait is 7 years, I’ve heard. At my age there’s little point in ordering something that will take years to arrive. I waited 2 months for a Tudor recently. That’s long enough.
Time is of the essence!
By: sham1 : August 22nd, 2022-02:25
How long we are willing to wait for a watch is dependent and justified by our own circumstances.
By: ztirual : August 21st, 2022-21:11
Great question. The issue, and I am sure you have experienced that just as I have with independant watchmakers, is that the EDT, the expected delivery time, as informed by the watchmaker at the outset is often just a shot in the dark, a wish, a hope, at b...