I find that prices have risen way too much. Opus One used to be sub $200 a bottle. Now, it's around double that. A typical California Napa Cab that has seen 70% new French Oak barrels used to cost $30 a bottle several years ago, now they're $60-75. This rising tide has lifted almost all boats. A lot of the initial price increases are due to Chinese demand. But a lot of it is also due to more expensive farming, technology, etc. in Napa and Sonoma. Winery owners have gotten accustomed to the high prices, which caused many to make major infrastructure investments, these big capital expenditures are based on these high prices continuing.
But when apples get expensive, I'll eat less apples and more pears. Simple economics. Same with wine, when Californian wines get this expensive, I'll drink cheaper French wines. I'm learning I like Albarinos from Spain now; if I'm okay with drinking grapefruit juice, I'll drink New Zealand Sauvignon Blanc. Apparently some have gone to hard ciders and other things you've listed.
But with the past two years; with big fires, big grape gluts, and big prices; I wonder how can the industry adapt... It's like the Middle East, the Middle Eastern countries are accustomed to oil costing around $60 a barrel to support their tax free policies for citizens, their beautiful skyscrapers, free college education for their citizens, the best museums built by famous architects and stocked with meaningful art, and so on. They built all the high-end infrastructure that now requires high oil prices to fund and maintain. But the world is changing. Can the Middle East change? Can the Callifornian wine industry change?