Once the ball is rolling

Jun 05, 2020,22:59 PM
 

I consider myself a serious octane blooded German, having worked in automotive for many years. Please let me offer my opinion.

Germans most often are not the first to adopt, but once critical mass is reached, things are hard to stop.

Just think of the taycan - of course not quick to the market, but who would call that a half hearted attempt?

EV adoption will be the same thing and the tipping point is coming pretty soon I think.

In terms of layout on micro and macro level, Germany is very different from the US:
- only 5% live in a million people city
- smaller cities have a full infrastructure and are not rural in the sense
- disrance between gas stations is close - much closer than in France for example
- most profitable business for gas statiins already today is 7/11 type business, not gas - many look more like a combination of a mart and a caffee
- most stations that closed were the really small ones, so current ones typically will have spots to park
- In Germany, people walk the sidewalk, from a gas station you can most often walk to something else meaningful like a caffee or shop

I think it us a helpfull idea:
Will not solve range issues by itself, but will help get to the tipping point quicker
If gas demand goes down, gas station owners will welcome the chance to attract people for 45 min

Let’s see how it plays out, but would not be surprised if German EV density ranks top 5 relatively soon.

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What's wrong with this picture?

 
 By: cazalea : June 5th, 2020-07:04
FRANKFURT – The German government said it will require gasoline stations to offer electric car charging to help ease buyers’ concerns about range and support demand for EVs as part of its 130 billion-euro ($146 billion) economic recovery plan. Diego Biasi...  

It may not be enough

 
 By: Uncle Chico : June 5th, 2020-08:26
Unless the rest of Europe has a similar program, driving electric vehicles outside of Germany will still be problematic. Germany led the rest of Europe in the change over to lead free gas. If other countries expected German tourists they had to follow Ger... 

I think it is inEVitable...

 
 By: myles721 : June 6th, 2020-01:39
As an American and a full time investor I think it will be EV cars powered by consumer side solar energy and corporate / federal nuclear. I know nuclear is currently (I live close to Indian Point) unpopular but the 4th generation fission models are extrem... 

German government and common sense?

 
 By: anaesdoc : June 5th, 2020-09:10
Japan has a vast coast line and earthquakes with tsunamis which caused a nuclear catastrophe in 2011. Germany has none of that, but has among the highest prices for electricity worldwide. Guess how will shut down all nuclear plants?

Some of what's being discussed here is why hybrids will probably always make more sense than EVs. As with many other things there are many feel good nonsensical decisions

 
 By: InDebtButOnTime : June 5th, 2020-10:10
being made (for votes?). A great example here is swapping out all the natural gas powered city buses (SUPER clean and our buses have very low ridership) for very expensive electric buses. Fully electric does not necessarily equate to more eco friendly, ho... 

Germany

 
 By: Weems@8 : June 5th, 2020-13:01
Germany is next to my door. I know people there, and i lived 1 week in Germany. You know, Germany is a car country. Germans are in love with their petrol and diesel cars. Electric cars is a sensitive subject for them i think. Would they give up their Audi...  

This isn't a huge problem

 
 By: Tim_M : June 5th, 2020-16:23
Germany went from local rutted rural roads and few paved road networks to a nation-spanning and highly organized autobahn in a few years. Now they need to a few parking spots to install high-voltage chargers? I think they'll survive. The charging technolo... 

Once the ball is rolling

 
 By: xxcesar : June 5th, 2020-22:59
I consider myself a serious octane blooded German, having worked in automotive for many years. Please let me offer my opinion. Germans most often are not the first to adopt, but once critical mass is reached, things are hard to stop. Just think of the tay... 

Two things I'd like to add. One, I think applies most anywhere with high density. I doubt unique to San Diego. #1 is people (especially retired folks like myself)

 
 By: InDebtButOnTime : June 6th, 2020-12:08
like to take long distance trips in their car. For that group if the EV doesn't have serious range with a very fast recharge it won't work well. #2 that I know applies to SD but I'd guess applies to large cities on both US coasts is this.... There are a l... 

I will only get an EV when the range hit 800km and the charging takes less than 10minutes.

 
 By: iceheller 1945 ✌️ : June 6th, 2020-22:56
Well the other consideration is when the government pulls the plug on combustible engine. Building more stations would not solve much issue but waste of resources as you need more grids to stored and distribute all these power on each extra charging stati...