The Patek ref. 1518: Incredible variations in price, but why?

Today (April 10th 2013) Antiquorum auctioned off two Patek Philippe perpetual calendar chronographs of the same reference: 1518. It's interesting to note that in the past 3 years Antiquorum has auctioned off at least four Patek Philippe ref. 1518 out of a total 281 ever made (4 of which were in stainless steel).

According to antiquorum the 1518 were produced in four series as such:

- First series: with applied gold Arabic numerals from 1941 to 1954.
- Second series: presented at the Basel Fair in 1942 with enameled hour indexes, the 12 in applied gold Arabic numerals.
- Third series: with applied gold indexes, the 12 in applied gold Arabic numerals.
- Fourth series: with applied gold baton indexes.

On June 10th 2010, a yellow gold example was sold for 282,000 USD

On May 16th 2011, Christies offered a pink gold example with a rare pink dial, which sold for 1,143,000 CHF (1,285,180 USD at the time)

On November 13th 2011, Sotheby's offered a unique yellow gold Clarin Mustad 1518, with a pink dial and an original 18k brick bracelet, which sold for unknown final value (estimate 890,000-1,330,000 USD)

On November 11th 2012, another yellow gold example was sold for 266,500 CHF (~286,500 USD)

Today (April 10th 2013, antiquorum offered two examples. The first in yellow gold with its original 18k yellow gold bracelet, which sold for 197,500 USD (substantially lower than one would expect).

At the same auction, a rose 1518 with its bracelet was sold for substantially more at 794,500 USD

So why the variation in price?

It seems to be just the whim of the market, and if a similarly rare or unique piece is considered valuable. One can draw a parallel with art, where no real benchmark is set and the price can be as wildly high or mildly low as demand wills it.

However, I know that there are those far more knowledgable about the world of auctions than myself and am more than open to any suggestions or speculations.

It's just like real estate . . .

By: autowind : April 10th, 2013-18:17

Condition, condition, condition . . .

That is why one of our forum rules is to avoid value discussions.

By: amanico : April 10th, 2013-21:40

You brilliantly demonstrated that value discussions are vain. Except for the buyer who paid top dollars for them. BUT he must not be that poor, as he bought a superb watch, and must be happy to wear it. Best, Nicolas

Well...The condition and uniqueness

By: little501 : April 10th, 2013-21:42

are always the determining factor. Please note that the first one sold at US$197500 is partially reprinted in the dial (as stated in the Antiquorum catalogue). So it could auctioned at that price is not suprising me. If you refer to the 2nd one whereas th...

Ed, you already got some explanations ...

By: small-luxury-world : April 11th, 2013-01:08

but as Nicolas already mentioned we have the intention not do discuss any prices. Please see here: amp;fi= As much as I like the style of your post, we have to take care of our rules. Thanks, for your understanding! Oliver

Wasn't the intent, but feel free to delete. [nt]

By: Ed. W : April 11th, 2013-07:50

Ed, thanks for your cooperation ...

By: small-luxury-world : April 11th, 2013-08:07

and I will keep it. Depending on further replies I will close it. Let´s see! Oliver

In that environment, I suspect there are some who

By: whit : April 11th, 2013-07:27

just took an extra gulp of kool-aid.

LOL! Well said. Unless they bought it for the good reason, their pleasure.

By: amanico : April 11th, 2013-07:29

Thanks for the info Ed!

By: bulliondesk : April 11th, 2013-08:15

197,500 is a great price for that 1518!

Didn't see this before..

By: bulliondesk : April 11th, 2013-08:17

*Please note that the first one sold at US$197500 is partially reprinted in the dial (as stated in the Antiquorum catalogue). That makes more sense as to why it sold for 197,500.

Language of dial?

By: ZJ : April 11th, 2013-08:15

I wonder if the language used on the dial may have something to do with it too. I would think English dials are generally attractive to a wider auditence than a dial with the dates in German or Spanish.

Condition and Rarity perhaps

By: Hamster07 : April 11th, 2013-09:18

I have little knowledge about this model but I guess, if the hammered prices really reflect how much each of them is sought after, condition and rarity might explain the phenomenon, as are the cases of other 3940 as an example, can anybody explain why th...

RG vs YG

By: ID1972 : April 11th, 2013-09:51

I'd consider also RG vs YG, with collectors paying more for the first one given its rarity...

I'm buying this argument.

By: dr.kol : April 11th, 2013-11:02

Now when YG is not fashionable, both RG and WG versions seem to be more wanted. This is a cultural issue. In the country east of my home land, gold has always been more red that in Finland - also during the Soviet times. I believe that this is the reason ...

Bingo!

By: Ken Lo : April 15th, 2013-02:20

Bingo! The majority of 1518's and 2499's were produced in yellow gold, so when you get a rose gold coming out on an auction, it is very rare and will fetch an unbelievable price. Check out the Christies' Geneva auction coming up in mid May, there are seve...