You won't buy a watch only because it is rare.
Do you see yourself buynig a rare watch even if it is ...Ugly, just because it is rare?
Don't think so.
What I wanted to enhance was that watches are not investments, but, I think, and this is my personal point of view, because of the pleasure they will bring to me, which is priceless.
Therefore, Rarity is a relative concept, and may obey to the rule of the offer and the demand:
If 10 000 000 Pepole want a watch produced at 10 000 pieces, it is rarer than a watch produced at 1 000 pieces, but desired by only 5 000 people.
So , how can you know how many people want the same watch, except reading the Future?
We have so many example of this:
Look at the Story of the Vintage Rolex Daytonas: Quite nobody wanted them till a recent time.
But going on a watch because you're madly in love with, with any other consideration, may be considered as a more secure way to choose your watch, don't you think?
Best,
Nicolas