Comments:
Independents ... bubbles ... and some critical thoughts
Seeing this new Ming selling for close to 60.000 euro taxes included .... Have to say I have serious reservations about the terms independent and bubble anyway.
For me this is 100% the opposite of an independent.
They are DEPENDING 100% on third party suppliers.
Imo ( but really IMO) cause most call everything independent that does not belong to LVMH, Kering, Swatch, Richemont, ...) and independent should be able to make a watch on his own without somebody delivering him ALL the necessary parts.
I coud do the same. Contact a designer, a case maker, a movement maker, dial and hands and finally look for someone who puts everything together. Maybe I would like the result but I would not have the arrogance nor the guts to call myself an independent watchmaker.
If you make your own case ( already VERY rare ) if you make your own dial, hands, crown ... If you reword a existing movement or you finish it to a superior level or you really start from scratch ( except hairspring, jewels, ... ) THAT makes you an independent
People scream all the time the Nautulis, Daytona, Royal oak and so are overhyped and we should look more at independents. I agree but only to a degree cause nowadays we're imo in an independent bubble. Or at least when we're talking about brands like ... well I don't need to name them you can easily name enough of them yourself.
Also, but that's another discussion .... The top independents are unfortunately also a way overpriced and overhyped story today. Most will agree the top 3 are Rexhep, Dufour and Smith.
Look, as much as I like these ... They are insane overhyped today.
I'm already long in this watch collecting thing and believe me, I've met all 3 of them more than once ... and more important Dufour and Smith about 20 years ago and Rexhep 12 years ago.
Back then a Dufour was about 40-50 K, Smith also around 45K. If only I had the money 
... and by the way all you needed was the money, there were NO waiting lists or you didn't have to be a wealthy watch collector with already a bag full of expensive special watches.
... and by the way all you needed was the money, there were NO waiting lists or you didn't have to be a wealthy watch collector with already a bag full of expensive special watches.When Rexhep started Akrivia I spoke him more than once during the first 2 years. Believe me these were VERY hard times for him... nobody bought them.
Yes, these 3 are also in my top 3 dream list ... But seeing Dufour and Smith selling for around 1 million ... that's just nuts
That causes a lot of horofatique, I must say. There is a new concept, the horo milked cows... And I don't want to belong to that category. There are so many interesting watches which are still under the radar...
The independent watch market has been my home for about 5-6 years. I have moved on last year/this year (with one exception).
I have less of a problem with the prices and more of a problem with the experiences. Buying independent watches was as much about the experience of buying „your“ watch and being in direct contact with the watchmakers as it was about the watches themselves to me. Nowadays it‘s the same as with other mainstream brands. Only the top 1% customers now get the treatment every customer got a few years ago. As a „normal“ customer you often even have to buy it, without being able to try it on before.
I'm happy about how much easier it is to start a brand and succeed
But I like brands with a big history that I can dive into and study, and that have proven their staying power over the years. Plus I don't have the budget to buy high end independents.
Agreed the horology market has changed. It has done so in an *expected* manner and at a drastic / alarming pace.
Great profits in horological endeavors were reaped due to 'easy currency central banking schemes' to keep their system afloat in recent years. As we all know, this has greatly benefitted the luxury goods market (in general), with too much 'cheap currency' chasing too few things of intrinsic value and services. Sadly, there's the afterMATH 'hangover' on the other side of MMT. Prices doubling-ish over the past three or so years make sense when you look at the currency creation on steroids / devaluation factor globally. The challenge now becomes this: How to 'service' this debt without going 'bankrupt' (which some Central banks are right now with honest accounting) or continuing very high currency devaluation.
Yes, what was at one time years ago a more seasoned hobby and love of the craft, today the world is well-aware of mechanical timepieces and so it will NEVER be the same as it was a decade ago. Those days are now within the rearview mirror, never to come back during our lifetimes. Maybe in three or four human generations, after the great decline, it'll be close to as it once was.
One thought for all this newfound publicity and sales is that this is great, FINALLY, the world is aware of the art, science, math, and 'culture' of mechanical timepieces we've loved for decades. Welcome aboard everyone, we're glad you've joined us. Here, have a nice drink and relax in the warm sun.
On the other hand, profiteering, theft, and ways to reap the most financial gain during sales / auctions / etc have also become a fact of life. Maybe you can get this 'rare' timepiece from your AD / independent, maybe not since you can buy it (like artwork, rare cars, etc) and immediately flip it for profit. It doesn't matter if you even care about horology (or art, cars, etc), there's currency and profits to be made here !!!
In a sense, we're living through one big global Modern Monetary Theory experiment... and now comes the mathematics 'hangover' that leads to..... One thing is for certain, we live in interesting times. It will be educational in how their newfound accounting practices and currency creation schemes in 2024 and beyond hope to 'solve' (bailout) the 'equation'. (hint: they can't without either more of the same increases / devaluation, or a 'major' change in their system provided they can also create CONfidence of their change).
Well, am sure during the 1990s Asia crisis the horology sector wanted more positive publicity and increased sales. Now that the industry has the publicity and sales....
Smart horology companies know it is best to 'control' the flow of their goods in both directions, including within the secondary market, as a plethora of used pieces may be coming back into the market. Of course this is nothing new, yet the quantity may increase quite drastically.
We all know certain brands have been overbidding on their products at auctions for decades to keep their brand's value-perception illusion going. Their strength lies in keeping the status quo.
All the above jmho as am more a mathematics type. It is all too obvious CBs are SOL without MMT's very liberal and creative financing at this point and into the future. Even regular people now realize cash is trash (there are pop songs about it), and when CONfidence is lost within their currency system it will be interesting to see how they choose to 'pivot'. Only then may we see who truly loves timepieces, and who only got into it for the profits. It'll be interesting to see what happens within the luxury timepiece industry.
We do indeed live in interesting times. And yes, i miss the days of casually walking around / riding the subway in England, Germany, USA, etc wearing a very fine timepiece (and having no worries about my safety). Now that is possible in only a few locations within the world.
Be careful what you wished for back in the 1990s, you may get it. Is today's 'progress' something we lovers of horology truly desire? We now hide our wrists in public, and only whisper of what we're wearing when the time / place is 'right'.
Wholeheartedly agree that “independents” are past the point of overhyped. All of them.
It’s been a crazy several years which of course has encouraged many new entrants (watchmakers, brand makers and CEOs) to the “my first indie watch will be $50-80k” market. But entry price points aside I don’t know if these new entrants are bad for collecting, the opposite in fact as we now have more choice and more ideas.
I don’t include Ming in that “my first indie watch will be $50-80k” cohort as obviously they have spent several years building the brand, the operations, suppliers etc. While I get that many have been a little surprised by their newest release, it’s only 20 watches and they have put in some groundwork to get to this point. Their most recent release prior to this one was (is) pretty intriguing. Although still at a price point which for me, for Ming, I can’t justify.
What we can’t deny is that there is a significant market for non watchmaker founded indies. The outsourcing model. MB&F were ahead of their time on that. And whether one likes it or not buyers are focused on the quality of suppliers, the quality of the components, the quality of finishing and whether there is an actual named watchmaker behind this doesn’t matter. I mean that same model works for Rolex, Patek etc, so why not for smaller production.
I think nothing more to them as a new vehicle for the auction houses and secondhand dealers to milk the masses who are dying to “be different”.
Great post, Bruno
I, too, don’t see Ming and others similar to them as an Independent, more of a high end micro brand… which by the way there is nothing wrong with whatsoever and we as collectors are allowed to place our money however we wish.
Fortunately there are still some really compelling true Indies out there with reasonable price points so not all is lost.
Fortunately there are still some really compelling true Indies out there with reasonable price points so not all is lost.
Fantastic point Brandon
I can imagine some of the names on that list: Kudoke, Habring, Dornbluth & Sohn, Benzinger. But who else might you include on it?
You nailed it
I might add Sinn to that list even though I don't personally think of them as an Independent. Oil filled watches, watches with the AR-dehumidifying technology, Tegiment hardening, Captive bezels, etc. shows me they do not take making sport watches lightly.
I mostly agree with you on that 👍🏻
I do tend to focus more on real indies nowadays where watches are for the most part made by there creators and not by a designer although some are really beautiful watches tbh .
Very much agree, this has been bugging me for a while now. Ultimately I think more options are good but hype and crazy prices make it treacherous for buyers, people really need to know what they are buying for the $ and be 1000% comfortable with it.
$60k for a gold Ming? $150k for a new watch school graduates first project? $500k for assembly of the best outsourced parts money can buy? I love Ming's designs, I'm happy talented and motivated youths can make their own way without toiling in the mines of a luxury group brand, and its great that the best suppliers are recognized for their excellent work. But, imho, designing/outsourcing is not watch making, new entrants are charging premium prices when their longevity of brand and product are unproven and they are backed by little life and industry experience, and any premium for rarity/exclusivity of limited production is a game if the whole watch has been outsourced. I think we'll see a reshuffling as the hype changes but many indies will lag the market drop since they have order books they can eat from for a while, it'll probably be another year or two before we see which indies really will survive when the hype is gone. In the meantime, I'm totally out of the market until things get less crazy.
Good article thank you
but I think there are two different definitions of an independent watchmaker - one that does not belong to a large group which means Patek Philippe can also be classed as an independent watchmaker and one that makes his watches entirely in house which is terribly rare since there will be some element of outsourcing required for every watch. My definition of an independent watchmaker is one that is not part of a large group irrespective of how the components of his watches are sourced from. They are independent in the decision making process of making their watches and if they so decide to outsource all the watch components to come up with a great watch, so be it. We as the customer will only benefit from this as we have a choice between buying an independent like Ming and Kurono for example or expend our money further on the higher end independents.
Never has there been more independent brands in the market and we are spoiled for choice. The old guards like Smith and Dufour have taken advantage of the rise of the auction and second hand prices of their watches by increasing the prices and reducing the availability of their new watches hence requiring one to be ultra well healed and connected to be able to afford one. And when looking at any watch, I always ask myself what is its opportunity cost. Is a three handed watch from a top tier independent worth more to me than say a Patek minute repeater? Probably not if one makes an objective decision which would be wise when one is talking about hundreds and thousands of dollars.
But the choice is ours and for some a top tier independent will always appear the more attractive option as one equates their work to a work of art unlike a watch from a large company, irrespectively of how well the watch has been made. And in addition, many of use crave for rare items so there will always be a market for independent brands that produce few watches. The demand for any watch by Christian Klings is a perfect example of this.
I am glad at the recognition that independents are now finally receiving which to me has been long overdue. Many make their watches with such passion missing from the large brands. We get to meet these affable watchmakers and form a bond with them when placing our orders. We buy not just the watch, but the person behind the brand. This is watch collecting at its best.
Extremely well said, especially the point on opportunity cost
Even an entry-level independent three hander - think Moser Pioneer or Ferrier Classic Origin - competes on pricing with a Jaeger-LeCoultre Duometre.
Exactly!
And the Duometre is a quality product by a proven brand with a long history. It has a spectacular movement too, though a little large fand thick for some wrists.