Comments:
I do not think so, but shortsighted car makers (and U.S. government) are conceding the field to their competitors.
I have a plug-in hybrid. The driving experience when running on electricity is vastly better than the experience when running on gas. I cannot imagine at any time in the future buying a car with a gas tank.
The U.S. government has done what it can to poison the field for EVs, and various automobile executives are watching their bonuses for the current year rather than the futures of their companies.
In a few years, if we're lucky, we will all be driving EVs made by companies that are currently American microbrands and maybe some Korean companies. If not, we'll be driving Chinese EVs.
The U.S. government has done what it can to poison the field for EVs, and various automobile executives are watching their bonuses for the current year rather than the futures of their companies.
In a few years, if we're lucky, we will all be driving EVs made by companies that are currently American microbrands and maybe some Korean companies. If not, we'll be driving Chinese EVs.
I’ve had pure electric Fiat500 and hybrids Chevy Volt & Honda Insight
Total driving between the three of about 200,000 miles. The plug-in hybrid Volt is the best option (for us) by far - gas for distance, electric for town with seamless switching. But too complex and expensive to build even for GM, so they are not building a 3rd generation.
The Fiat 500 from back in the day was hardly the last word on electrics…
Would be a little bit like using a Hyundai i10 as the champion of internal combustion engine powered cars 😁
They have made huge strides in the interim and I am pretty sure you might like the new ones. The likes of Ionic 5N are genuinely impressive (although that particular one still had a range even shorter than my 80 liter E63S had, which likewise did a lot less than the majority of electrics nowadays 😉).
They have made huge strides in the interim and I am pretty sure you might like the new ones. The likes of Ionic 5N are genuinely impressive (although that particular one still had a range even shorter than my 80 liter E63S had, which likewise did a lot less than the majority of electrics nowadays 😉).
True. GM, Ford, and Chrysler gave up on globally competitive products.
All three stopped any effort to be globally competitive. The Fiat merger and Peugeot/Citroen merger helped Chrysler maintain an overseas presence of sorts, but even those are on a longterm downward trend. Ford and GM are seeing Chinese market shares under serious pressure, and their only reliable profit centers are ICE pickup trucks and SUVs in the US. That's an awfully narrow competitive window if fuel prices stay high long term or people just flat-out stop buying $70,000 pickups on 84-month loans. As for the EVs, used ones are cheap all day long, and the vast majority of US car buyers are used car buyers, not new.
Best,
Tim
Best,
Tim
I don't understand why...but my perspective is that EVs are perfect for a second vehicle...
...which means maybe best for people with means. As around town, shopping, church, etc. cars they are hard to beat. Almost no maintenance other than wipers and tires. In CA it's far cheaper than gas, especially these days.
On my fourth ev. Never going back
An emotional subject for sure
I am now driving a BMW i5 edrive 40 Touring after having owned (leased) three Mercedes EQBs, all 350 4Matic.
After overcoming the initial stress related to range anxiety and a new process around charging on the go, I can wholeheartedly say that I will not go back to internal combustion engines if I can help it.
For many reasons, the top ones being
- Ride comfort - so quiet (for motor-sound enthusiasts, this is a clear draw-back…)
- Great power/torque, always on tap
- Next-level drive systems make long motorway/highway trips more relaxing
- The above combined with realizing that sticking to speed-limits will conserve battery and get you where you are going in more or less the same time but much more relaxed
- Not having to visit gas station due to home charging (for normal, day-to-day driving)
- Significantly cheaper to ‘fill up’
Of course, it needs to be said that I am living in Denmark, so most distances travelled are inside range AND - not least - really really good charging infrastructure. Things would not be the same without these two factors.
And, I lease. Would never buy an EV due to the pretty wild price decreases on EVs.
And…I still have a good old-fashioned combustion engine on the side…
Claus
Perfect combo my friend =)
An absolutely crucial component of EV ownership is being able to charge at home. For a lot of people who live in apartments, regardless of continental geography, this is a difficult challenge to overcome........
If Chinese EV's & EV technology were allowed in the USA I think there would be a paradigm shift.
Even Americans would figure out quickly there is a world of EV's they have never even seen, and they would flee from the fossil fuel backwater the USA seems to be headed to.
Since 2019…
The numbers of new ICE powered cars has been steadily dropping, and the growth comes from BEVs - and that globally. The trajectory of the transition is still open but the final destination is clear in spite of the odd hiccup (and the examples given are quite old and technologically no longer up to speed vehicles) 😊🤷🏻♂️
Ah, the pink fluffy unicorn of the automotive world 🦄
Based on the assumption that we will reduce driven km by about 95% and that customers are willing to pay 10-15 €/liter without any government taxes added on, it’s a fun theoretical idea that could keep some vintage cars and possibly some exotic machinery running for some years to come. But it’s not a practicable or cost effective solution for the rest.
We will wait and see ... .
But I already have a feeling now that we will have to wait for quite a long time lol 
If you are waiting for the breakthrough of E-Fuels…
You will wait for a long, long time 🤪😂
What many of us knew from the beginning ....
How did I know from the beginning it was going to be a dead end ?
EV's sold particularly well over here in BE and Europe, well the tax deductible ones at least .
I'm a sensible electro mechanical engineer so I know the 'yes we can' doesn't work for the EV-hype either ... the math simply doesn't work out.
... the math simply doesn't work out.Ev cars are amazing and will hopefully always have their place in the market, thinking EV was thé solution and would replace ICE as a whole was plain stupid and political (well that's the same anyway LOL).
.But the real problem comes after 4 years ... all the CEO's here are driving 100 to 200K EV nowadays (for the moment due to a change in the system I see more new M5 hybrids than 1-series) and they want a new car every 3 to 5 years.
So for example this Taycan Turbo S was 235.000 € brand-new , the owner wanted a new Porsche after driving this one for 3,5 years and 40.000 km.
So the Porsche dealer made him an offer he couldn't refuse ... 60.000 €, I would honestly be s*****g my pants :-(.
So the owner decides to keep the taycan, although there have been many problems with it during those 3,5 years. I think it sat at the dealer for a full year in total.
The good part is that this example has ceramic brakes so they never have to be replaced according to Porsche (or the dealer for that matter).
Except, not for this car it seems. After 3,5 years and 40.000 km they need replacing ... sigh ... 20.000 € .... .
Moral of the story ? Don't buy a new EV Porsche, don't buy a secondhand EV Porsche ... and more people (I already know quite few) will 'never' buy a Porsche 'tout court'.
They're in trouble as I heard on THE news and I fear their trouble could last for a long time coming unfortunately.
Do I still believe in EV ? ABSOLUTELY !
Will I ever buy a EV ? I would say it's 50/50 as a second (or 3rd/4th/5th/6th car).
Will it be an expensive EV ? Definitely NOT ... Renault has the 30K R5 and now they have this super funky 20K Twingo with a 250 km range.
... Renault has the 30K R5 and now they have this super funky 20K Twingo with a 250 km range.Okay, gonna go to sleep now, early day tomorrow installing my newly acquired solar panels on the BIM-barn ;-)
Bim
PS.
PS.
Same price when new ... 100.000 km and still worth more than double of that Taycan.
Just because some German premium manufacturers did anything but a swell job strategically…
Doesn’t mean that electric mobility (even amongst expensive cars) is a dead end. The lacking reliability, massively delayed product launches and horrendous resale values are all factors but none of them are a feature of EVs as such, just of managing the situation of introducing new technology.
BMW has done the best job of the German players and if Neue Klasse succeeds, the remaining ICE powered vehicles will be quickly phased out.
Coming back to Porsche - let’s not forget that a large chunk of their profitability over years was due to the fact that their almost fully curtailed R&D in the ICE spectrum led to much better returns, then further accelerated during the chip shortage (where they could more or less choose which cars to build).
It could have gone well if the Electric Macan came to market in 2022 as originally planned and not 2,5 years too late. And the areas it does not perform on (f.i. ADAS) have nothing to do with electric propulsion, either 🤷🏻♂️
What many are doing now is the epitome of moronicity - they are now developing from scratch new ICE powered platforms that will enter the market just at the moment the customer sentiment will have accepted electric as the better solution.
And you are bringing a key aspect into the discussion - as long as the offering was of super expensive executive models only, the resale value problem was acute and the spread less. With the appropriate range of vehicles (the R5 s a great example), and in 2-3 years a good number of used cars in the very usable spectrum (R5, the new CLA and some others), you will have an ecosystem that’s self reinforcing.
As for whose fault it is - often the finger points at politicians but largely I would see the responsibility in the car manufacturers themselves. Let’s not forget that part of the fervor for BEVs also came as a mea culpa reaction to the diesel cheating scandal. And let’s likewise not forget the enormous successes of manufacturers that have taken electric mobility seriously 😉
BMW has done the best job of the German players and if Neue Klasse succeeds, the remaining ICE powered vehicles will be quickly phased out.
Coming back to Porsche - let’s not forget that a large chunk of their profitability over years was due to the fact that their almost fully curtailed R&D in the ICE spectrum led to much better returns, then further accelerated during the chip shortage (where they could more or less choose which cars to build).
It could have gone well if the Electric Macan came to market in 2022 as originally planned and not 2,5 years too late. And the areas it does not perform on (f.i. ADAS) have nothing to do with electric propulsion, either 🤷🏻♂️
What many are doing now is the epitome of moronicity - they are now developing from scratch new ICE powered platforms that will enter the market just at the moment the customer sentiment will have accepted electric as the better solution.
And you are bringing a key aspect into the discussion - as long as the offering was of super expensive executive models only, the resale value problem was acute and the spread less. With the appropriate range of vehicles (the R5 s a great example), and in 2-3 years a good number of used cars in the very usable spectrum (R5, the new CLA and some others), you will have an ecosystem that’s self reinforcing.
As for whose fault it is - often the finger points at politicians but largely I would see the responsibility in the car manufacturers themselves. Let’s not forget that part of the fervor for BEVs also came as a mea culpa reaction to the diesel cheating scandal. And let’s likewise not forget the enormous successes of manufacturers that have taken electric mobility seriously 😉
True !
I do disagree on the politicians part
The transition to EV had to happen way too fast, I do understand that you have to push anyway or nothing much will happen, remember the Renault Fluence and Zoë ?
Renault and Nissan (Leaf) were pioneers but they decided to make their EV's ugly as hell and politicians weren't the least interested in ECO stuff.
Coming back to Porsche ... why the heck would you want to make your first EV as complicated as the Taycan ? Well, because Porsche can't afford to make a simple base model obviously, who would want to buy that ? Maybe they should have created a new sub-brand ... but then who am I to advise Porsche or anyone else, I'm a lousy business guy LOL.
So we come back to the politicians setting the bar high enough, too high to be specific. By 2030 every newly produced car should be electric .... okay ... .
The transition to EV had to happen way too fast, I do understand that you have to push anyway or nothing much will happen, remember the Renault Fluence and Zoë ?
Renault and Nissan (Leaf) were pioneers but they decided to make their EV's ugly as hell and politicians weren't the least interested in ECO stuff.
Coming back to Porsche ... why the heck would you want to make your first EV as complicated as the Taycan ? Well, because Porsche can't afford to make a simple base model obviously, who would want to buy that ? Maybe they should have created a new sub-brand ... but then who am I to advise Porsche or anyone else, I'm a lousy business guy LOL.
So we come back to the politicians setting the bar high enough, too high to be specific. By 2030 every newly produced car should be electric .... okay ... .
Let’s recap a little bit…
When it comes to things like policy there is always a huge influence of various parties, let’s call them lobbyists, to stay polite 😊
After 2015 two things happened in parallel. First of all, the diesel scandal. And while apart from VW no one paid significant amounts in fines the European car manufacturers saw the writing on the wall for their key - if flawed - technology.
And the electric revolution started happening. Tesla - back then still Model S only - was scaring the classical manufacturers into action and the first serious grumbling of moving to electric were noticeable from China.
Now the management of European car manufacturers knew full well that they were poorly equipped to develop several technologies in parallel. VW could have done it at a stretch and Toyota but apart from that no one had the necessary financial muscle or in fact the engineering capacity to do all at once and well.
So the lobbying efforts fully focused on what back then was called technological clarity - there were countless calls to ensure that regulation was clear enough to allow them to focus on one technology without fear that someone else could overtake them in parallel with something else. The politicians didn’t come up with electric on their own and if you read the actual legislation, there was always the possibility of all types of technologies, as long as there were no CO2 emissions of newly sold cars from 2035 onwards.
As soon as the frame was set there was a race started by various manufacturers claiming how they would get there sooner. And to top it all off, many would insource the software development as well, like Tesla.
This combination of introducing a fully new propulsion technology and insourcing software development at the same time was a massive fail for pretty much everyone. VWs Cariad malaise is well publicized, Toyota’s similar story less so.
So the vehicles did not get developed in time, were more buggy than one expected of the brands (Tesla was always judged differently during those early years) and many brands frankly also botched the design, scaring off their traditional customers while attracting too few new ones.
And unlike a player like Tesla they could not afford a decade or so of deep losses, as their stock market story was one of steady dividends, not of a hypothetical moonshot.
So at some point they figured out that the story they were peddling didn’t fully fly and started backtracking on their own communication, lobbying and strategies to ensure that they generated the returns in the short run.
As for Porsche, let’s not forget that the Taycan was initially a huge success and that it propelled Oliver Blume to the VW CEO posting. It was the first European EV that could outperform Tesla on their own communication boasting front and could do that for as many runs as you pleased without melting down. The packaging was poor (but then it’s a Porsche 🤷🏻♂️), though, which cost it sales in the Asian markets I suppose and that’s where it suffers still. The ADAS functionality was mid-tier at best, which likewise didn’t help. But these are all issues afflicting the whole company, not just the EV lines.
Interesting to read this.
So difficult to predict the coming 10 years ...
What will the big companies do (VAG/Toyota/Tesla/Stellantis and Renault) compare to the massive upcoming Chinese brands ?
Yet, i still want that EV Twingo in a couple of years when i retire and decide to live a very humble life, my solar panels will guarantee that I can drive around free of cost ... errr wait a minute ... by that time 'politicians' will have to find a way to make me pay for this ;-)
I'll better keep the Clio as well ;-)
You could get the A290 for a bit more fun than the Twingo 😉
And still free mobility 😉
As for what will happen, the big question is to what extent the classical brands manage to stomach the size and profitability of their China business disappearing. That’s probably much more material than any moves the Chinese can do in Europe (they are largely kept out of the US market).
But be that as it may, the future is electric at any rate, at least everywhere outside the US.
EVs are "rich people cars"
...or at least upper middle class vehicles. Maybe a controversial statement, but let me explain. (And if you know the US housing market it makes a LOT more sense)
Until you can *satisfactorily* solve for multi-dweller units (MDUs) like apartment builds, condos, etc where the vast majority of people live, adoption has a natural ceiling. Sure, battery technology is evolving, but that is being solved as the generations move forward incrementally. Long haul driving is still painful and you add hours to anything far enough away. Every six months I measure my family's two main road trips: In-laws in Indiana and our Florida vacation spot. Both using Tesla's route planner and both come out 3+ hours longer and both are lacking chargers at the destinations.
But, back to my main point. MDUs. MDUs are key. The average condo complex tries to figure out how to do the power chargeback coupled with convenience factor.
- Do you make the chargers "free" and bake it into condo/HOA fees? Now you have some percentage of non EV owners complaining
- You put in X% chargers, but even with idle penalties some people will refuse to come out and move after they are charged leading to complaints of never having enough chargers
In other words, it's a no-win situation.
Elon's master plan for EVs was never about terrestrial usage anyways, if you look at his long term goals everything was based on Mars and all his technology road maps were factored this way. Buying a Tesla is just crowdsourcing his Mars rover project and kudos to him for figuring out how to get people to buy in to that vision.
The last major engineering report I read from BMW, which was several years ago granted, was that hydrogen or some variant was likely the way forward to minimize the challenges around electrical infrastructure and that EV/Hybrid was the transition phase.
Until you can *satisfactorily* solve for multi-dweller units (MDUs) like apartment builds, condos, etc where the vast majority of people live, adoption has a natural ceiling. Sure, battery technology is evolving, but that is being solved as the generations move forward incrementally. Long haul driving is still painful and you add hours to anything far enough away. Every six months I measure my family's two main road trips: In-laws in Indiana and our Florida vacation spot. Both using Tesla's route planner and both come out 3+ hours longer and both are lacking chargers at the destinations.
But, back to my main point. MDUs. MDUs are key. The average condo complex tries to figure out how to do the power chargeback coupled with convenience factor.
- Do you make the chargers "free" and bake it into condo/HOA fees? Now you have some percentage of non EV owners complaining
- You put in X% chargers, but even with idle penalties some people will refuse to come out and move after they are charged leading to complaints of never having enough chargers
In other words, it's a no-win situation.
Elon's master plan for EVs was never about terrestrial usage anyways, if you look at his long term goals everything was based on Mars and all his technology road maps were factored this way. Buying a Tesla is just crowdsourcing his Mars rover project and kudos to him for figuring out how to get people to buy in to that vision.
The last major engineering report I read from BMW, which was several years ago granted, was that hydrogen or some variant was likely the way forward to minimize the challenges around electrical infrastructure and that EV/Hybrid was the transition phase.
I agree, no amount of cool cars entering the market would quickly change the un-availability of chargers, and the price of electricity
Here's our special electrical rate for EV in the San Diego area. Unless you charge in the middle of the night between midnight and 6 am, the cost is roughly 50-75 cents per kWh. Plus a daily charge of another 75 cents.
With a Tesla battery (most common size) 75 or 100 kWh the electricity cost to charge ranges from $37.50 to $75 which doesn't include any markup by a charging station, cost of real estate, etc.
Yes, you can reduce this cost by having solar but that introduces a whole lot of other issues, including more costs of storage batteries, solar cells, racks and maintenance, etc etc
Solar is far from free. Talking with solar providers in my area (SunRun) -- they would charge me a minimum of $220 a month to barely cover the cost of our home use, not including a car.
That's about the same as I pay for electricity today, including my hybrid car (battery only 14 kWh).
That's about the same as I pay for electricity today, including my hybrid car (battery only 14 kWh).