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State of the industry and timepiece market.
I've recently been having discussions with various second hand dealers here in Brazil about the current market trends (here at least). There seems to be a collective interest in switching "professions". One of them has decided to liquidate all of his stock and go into the car-parking business. Since I have somewhat of an intimate relationship with a few of them, they were kind enough to share numbers and a good perspective of what's going on. Essentially, in the Brazilian market, good timepieces have disappeared, orders and demand for new timepieces has slowed significantly, and the vintage market is stagnant as well, filled with sub-par merchandise.
It used to be that if you had a Day Date Rolex or a modern Patek in stock, you wouldn't take long to sell it, and now there are re-sellers practically trying to give them away at rock bottom prices.
I've noticed that on US watch markets (auction sites and sales forums) the supply has increased significantly on many different watches, and that sale prices have fallen considerably. It used to be that you had a difficult time finding a Rolex Daytona at a reasonable price, and now they are fetching up to 20% (a quick estimate) lower than they did just one year ago.
I've read somewhere that top end manufacturers like Patek are setting up to lower their production levels over the next few months.
Now these are just some speculations and opinions specific to the Brazilian market with a few opinions on the "world" market. Everything mentioned here may be complete gibberish. I know our timepieces will not turn into "dust" but perhaps there is also a watch market bubble?
What do you think will happen to the overall market? Entry level brands, mid level, and top tier?
Are you worried about a possible decline in resale value? (I know most of us buy not as investments but because we like watches, but this is an element that to me at least helps when weighing a new purchase)
Are you noticing these same trends?
Kind regards,
Fred Bonatto
This message has been edited by Bonatto on 2008-12-08 19:21:26
State of the industry and timepiece market.
The market has changed significantly even in just the last month or so.
AD inventories are way up . . . and they are dealing . . .
