I think that the Daytona decline has to do with a lot of factors. I have owned 3 (modern) in my life, the first 2 were sold because I was offered crazy money for them. I was only fortunate enough to purchase the 3rd because I also had purchased a number of other watches from this perticular AD. I honestly think that Rolex has upped the list price too much. At $10,000, the list is just too high for the watch. Just because you can charge that much doesnt mean that is the best for the piece in the long run.
Even the vintage market has lost its share of fans, including myself. I love the "Paul Newman" Daytona, I think that it is a great looking watch with a fantastic line of history. But the chances of getting a Fake model are just too high. I was once in the market for one, but I am now so scared of paying for a fake that I just cant bring myself to make that kind of investment in it.
Its a great watch, and my favorite every day watch, but it seems that Rolex has gotten too greedy about the price at the wrong time.
and that is the "market" price for the 116520 has already been lowered to about the same level as its MSRP.
supply of the 116520 has never been scarce on the market; it was just difficult to get at MSRP from ADs.
the price of the 116520 will continue to go down is how i see it. its price was always inflated due to ADs holding on to them to generate sales of their less popular pieces. now that the price advantage has eroded, it is only natural for them to start releasing them to even their non VIP customers.
i will not be surprised to see ADs to start offering discounts on the 116520s soon, if they are not already offering discounts to their VIP customers.
First the Daytona was never a limited production item. It was merely as other have said hard to get at list price. The new list price has frightened off would be flippers/speculators. So the demand has dropped off a bit. The early 116520s were only $6,000. That was well under the market value. What else could you buy with an in house movement for $6,000 that also is highly coveted and recognized in many countries ,especially Asia. The basic RO Chrono was more than twice the price, the VC Overseas chrono was in excess of $11,000, and neither had in house movements. Don't get me wrong, I am sure the finish on the movements is significantly finer in the RO or Overseas, but those are also watches that are only recognized and maybe shopped for by WISs.
Also the 116520 has been in production for nearly 9 years. I myself have owned two 116520, two 16520, a 16519, a 16523, and a 16528. Now I'm down to a black dial 116520, 16520, and 16528. But now I am not as interested in Daytonas. Maybe one can reach a point when you are "Daytona'd out." Although, I still like the new rose gold Daytona and would consider one some day, but at 30,700 there are other watches I'd probably consider first.
I'm not sure the Daytonas will be selling at a discount, but maybe ADs will be less likely to hord them for super customers, or make people buy them with a few other watches. Its still a great watch, just not a watch that people can easily flip, and its still about half the price of a RO.
Best regards,
Dino