Horological Meandering

This time in horological evolution could well be the most important period which "makes or breaks" the traditional and respected dominance by European manufacturers of high end watch making.

The Internet has been a carriage of support in recent years for both the eager buyers of exclusive watches, and their makers, and this combined with reduced computer aided manufacturing costs, have given high end makers unprecedented profits.

Defunct, but old and previously respected makers names have been bought for tens of thousands and after a rejuvenation over a short period been sold for tens of millions.

A short while ago, there was a time where almost every post on any watch forum was a positive acclamation of a new model, or recently arrived new acquisition from a high end, or recognized, maker.

However recent posts on most watch forums at any site, see an increase in promotional reviews about makers products, a decrease in excited accolades from new watch buyers, and an increase in complaints about a variety of disappointments ranging from excessively expensive repairs, to poor duration of satisfactory performance, to downright slow service.

Everything was so positive but now a different mood is obvious to any alert watcher.

Positively and to their credit and our future as consumers, some watch makers are benefiting from this publicity through excellent after sales service..... negatively, some other brands are feeling the pain of the other side of the Internet's Public Awareness Sword.

The frightening fact for the industry as a whole is that there are more disappointments now than ever before.

It is about 2 years now since the boom in luxury watches peaked, and many watches sold in the good times are just now coming out of warranty, and as such, the present economic conditions will offer clarification of the "Actual or Real" quality of the watch model.... and the quality of service of many high end watch makers.

This is a good time for potential buyers to discover which companies will go the extra mile to maintain good public relations with their consumers... and also..... a good time to discover which makers won't bother to support long term consumer based PR.

A continued exhibition of internet posts on sites exposing very publicly aired disappointment at high repair bills, slow repair service, or refused warranty for watches just out of warranty, could in fact do more damage to traditional watch sales.... than the recent global recession.

With sales down by anything from 30% to 70%, the makers need to be aware of this. This is a time for makers to tune their operation on all facets including production, distribution and after-sales service.

For it is times like this that buyers pay more attention to research before parting with their tightly held dollars.

And yet, in many cases, this circumstance of potential damage through slow, expensive or unfriendly consumer service, would not be presently realized, understood, or appreciated by many of the conglomerate high end makers sitting far away in their European enclaves.

Many corporations have high paid, high spin marketing / promotional gurus, but few have the experienced executive staff to foresee real market trends like consumer's perceived opinions.... certainly not until these opinions unfold and result in a lack of brand confidence, resulting in a lack of sales.

'Boom Times' make every corporate executive, from the CEO to the far flung regional marketing manager, a hero.

But,..... 'Bust Times' confuse large corporations, because there is a reluctance by management on all levels to see, or distinguish, the fine line between a lack of sales due to recessionary conditions... and a lack of sales due to their poorly managed corporate inefficiencies.

On the other hand.... Few people buying an expensive Swiss / European watch, expect it to break down in a couple of years.

Even fewer people are aware of the very high repair charges to fix these expensive watches when repairs fall out of warranty.

As well, most people can not understand or accept the reasons, that it may take half a year to get a repair done.

When any of the above three things happen.... the consumers scream loud and often. And they use the Internet to vent their anguish.

But in the long run, for the true purist, times like these can only be good for the continued improvement of the industry in relation to a product quality, consumer service and product accessibility...... but this is only useful if the watch works.... and only if the maker stands behind the product in a professional manner.

Not so good for those buyers that have had to learn the hard way... but good, in that the genuine long term stayers in the manufacturing sector, will be on guard to make sure that the "Ohhhsss and Ahharrrs" of yesteryear previously associated with their brand ... are not replaced by sad tales of strict warranty cut off times, slow repair service, or high repair bills.

Watch makers will also now need to be diligent in reference to their distributor's attitudes and practices... for it is an old trick, in many industries to say that 'the parts will be replaced for free ... but you will have to pay for the labour'.... and then result in an AD sending out an outrageous, but self serving adjusted, account.

Also, many makers do need to get better logistical agreements into contract with their distributors, because expensive watches generate unique problems within the industry in relation to costs of freight and insurance.

it is a fact that because a watch may only weigh 120 Grams... in many cases..... it is just as expensive to insure and freight one watch as it is to freight 20 watches in the same shipment.

A Distributor or an AD waiting until a shipping consignment has 20 watches could save $2,000 plus..... but result in frustrating delays for the consumer, and bad publicity for the maker.

It is often the practice all the way along the chain, that when a consumer returns a watch to his AD, for repair or service, that the AD will wait until he has a sufficient quantity of watches to send, before sending that particular watch to his head office in a group consignment.

This may mean that a consumer's watch may sit with his AD for a week or three weeks before being sent on.

With only a few distributors handling a large number of brands and where certain distributor chains have several brands under their portfolio, the head office of that country may also wait for a sufficient quantity of watches of a particular brand ... before sending that shipment to their Regional Head Office.... another week or three.

Again the regional office might wait until sufficient watches of XYZ brand are accumulated before sending a consignment to that brand's makers Regional Agent for assessment to decide if the watch needs to be sent back to the factory for repair... or can be fixed in that region.

All of this when added together.... the outgoing and incoming freight can add many months to a simple repair.

So, in the watch industry, logistics are a mess between many makers and their distributors .... resulting in very poor service for the consumer.... and equally poor PR for a particular brand.

Makers have to address this.

Finally there is the Internet, watch forums, and the public's access to information.

While the Internet allowed the Pendulum to swing in favor of the makers in the boom times.... and Watch Forums at many sites were the carriage to conduit this favor...... The Internet could well allow a swing against the whole industry in these present times, because these same Forums have now a community voice that is vocal and expressive.

High end watches have generally been accepted and perceived by the public to be a product of the Swiss watch industry.... and to the learned this may not be quiet true... but for the sake of simplicity, let us assume that it is true .... and so it is up to the 'Swiss' watch industry.... and all the makers that live off her apron strings, to come out and support both the products they have sold, and the committed community this industry has cultivated in the last few years

If these makers who have so benefitted in recent times do not all put their best foot forward the tradition and heritage of European horology could well slump back into the depression of Quartz age.

Jack.

This message has been edited by mkt33 on 2009-11-16 09:11:59 This message has been edited by mkt33 on 2009-11-16 18:21:28 This message has been edited by mkt33 on 2009-11-16 18:21:59

Jack,

First I completely empathize with your situation(s).  I've been at the point of utter frustration, felt cheated and dumped on as a customer in this "luxury" hobby of ours.  That is why personally, in my moderating role, I've let your previous posts stand.  I think our community deserves to hear both sides of every story...the absolute truth is always somewhere in between.

But enough is enough.

What new substantive point is to be made with this 1400+ word essay that has not been covered by your previous posts?  Quite honestly, I'd prefer not to read your prophetic tirade but alas that is my job as a moderator.

When I start off my long work week and flip to PuristSPro for a moment of solace I'd much prefer to read about the completion of OPUS 3  or my good friend Art's posts about GO's new offerings. Even better, I long to wake up and see another Purist spontaneously post and share my enthusiasm for Montblanc Villeret and the Rieussec!

"While the Internet allowed the Pendulum to swing in favor of the makers in the boom times.... and Watch Forums at many sites were the carriage to conduit this favor...... The Internet could well allow a swing against the whole industry in these present times, because these same Forums have now a community voice that is vocal and expressive"

Yes but a "community voice that is vocal and expressive" doesnot need to be the same as yours!   Constantly repeating the same message gets offensive and boring.  Doing this on PuristSPro, without new and substantive points, achieves nothing.  You have expressed your "Passion, Opinion, and Information", the community has responded. 

Remember I've always considered PuristSPro ( and ThePuristS ) to be a cocktail party.  You're invited because we all share a common passion.  We can agree to disagree, we can respect differing opinions, afterall this is what makes our "virtual" conversation interesting.   If I greet you at the door and you respond with a negative comment about my house I'll still let you in because everyone can have a bad day.  If on multiple occassions I'm greeted with the same negativity ...let me just ask you, what would you do if you were the host?

 

Respectfully,

Mike

PS- Feel free to PM me.  I will be locking this thread as it rehashes the arguments you've made previously.

 

This message has been edited by mkt33 on 2009-11-16 09:13:18

Hi, Jack,

Like any industry, there are "good guys" and there are "bad buys" in the watch industry - companies and executives that have integrity, vision, ability. Character, willingness, and means.

Companies and executives that are mostly driven by the profit motive, how to separate the maximum amount of money from potential consumers, and move that money to their own pockets and coffers, through any means possible, including broken promises, lying, cheating, and downright fraud.

The majority of companies and executives tend to fall somewhere in between.

What is so difficult for "communities" such as ours, which have any aspirations of integrity and fairness, of "significance," is the constant battle to find balance between the micro and the macro; between isolated instances and broader systemic problems.

These dynamics apply to both the industry, but also the consumer community, and especially where the two intersect, where the potential for shills and false prophets to take the stage and grab the "mike" is greatest.

I agree that the recent "bubble,"  a result of many factors, allowed as much crap to flourish and as much carelessness to slip through as that which is "good and worthy."  Rising tides floats all boats, even those that deserve to sink.

Contrary to most observers, though, that the current "correction" (which implies a "return to a more natural state of affairs") is akin to a bubble bursting (which implies that it may get broken, never to be "fixed") I have a different take, based on observations and feedback traveling around the world meeting with collectors, enthusiasts, aficionados, and the laymen alike; but also with industry insiders, global and regional executives, and company owners to whom I have privileged access to.  I temper these observations and feedbacks with my own experience of "watching" the industry as both customer, observer, and advisor, over a period of over 30 plus years - hopefully my bullshit filter is properly calibrated.

My take on this "turning point" -

It is more a toilet flush than a coming apocalypse.

The field of high horology has reached "critical mass" and will not likely follow the rarified field of high end buggy whips, which became moribund when the motorcar came along and replaced the horse or ox drawn buggy.

Considering the psycho-dynamics of the potential overall class of "collectors" and enthusiasts, there is now enough of a population who have transcended the mere pigeon holing of timepieces as either

a. timekeeping device

b. social and material status signaling device

c. a narco-substitute for brand fan boys who worship anything with a particular brand on it (Rolex; Patek; Ferrari; Louis Vuitton, et al)

that I have very little concern that the population of enthusiasts will ever die out completely, or even significantly.  In this case I am thinking of abacus or slide rule enthusiasts; of typewriter aficionados. 

There are enough whose eyes light up, whose faces betray a certain epiphany, when they see the beauty of a finely finished movement, or of a beautifully designed movement, for the first time, that indicates an appeal that transcends a tool or mere "product;" an appreciation that indicates fine watchmaking approaches "art," that I feel confident the field will survive business shortcomings, passing momentary "trends" and "fashion."

High horology is more akin to haute couture (which has been with us since mankind first put on some sort of covering besides the skin we are born with) than the latest baggy pants fad that shows crack or low rise jeans that frame some wisps of pubic hear above the waistband.

The danger of a quartz era devastation a la the 1970's is, to me, akin to the Black Plague in Europe - many died, certain populations were greatly thinned (for awhile) but the human race continues to thrive.  Recently we have faced AIDS, SARS, and today we still are threatened by H1N1 (and yes, SARS and AIDS are still terrible threats, as are starvation) - they are very real dangers, but I don't see them as Extinction Level threats.

Oops, sorry, the other side of the world calls. I'll try to come back to this...

In brief -

I agree there are service issues in this industry (as there are in every industry)

I agree some players are more egregious in their lapses than others (as there are in every industry)

I agree much of the industry is still operating in a logistical "stone age" - distribution, communications, production management (projections, parts control, WIP controls);  SAV and failure analysis and reportage, etc etc etc

I disagree self reported public "outings" are as useful, or even as "accurate" as they might appear to be to the laymen.

I disagree the high horology industry is facing an Extinction Level threat, for whatever reason.

Cheers,

TM