One of the things I like to do when I can't figure things out is throw out everything and start over.
What do we know?
We have some "givens":
- APs new CEO is not a watch industry insider
- Swatch is a conglomerate that knows how to make money
I'll tack on some US perspective based on non-watch "environmentals".
- I live in the DC metro area
- Mass layoffs, DOGE + tech downsizing (and no, not all AI related)
- lots of "early retirements" (including yours truly)
- trend towards increasing college debt, even for people with "good" college majors
The typical young engineer I encountered at work, if they had something on their wrist it was an Apple Watch or Android equivalent, or a Garmin at best. The vast majority were more worried about college loans or figuring out how to add a gym membership to their monthly budget.
If they had disposable income, the younger generation is thinking more in terms of "experience" vs. "goods".
Watches, as a whole, simply do not have mindshare. Swatch, and AP by extension, aren't doing this for "us", and we don't even factor into the equation. Either we've bought already, or already can't afford to buy. This is a long term play to capture that mindshare to prevent the next crisis of the 2030s/2040s when the current generation(s) are no longer purchasing.
Heavily US centric, I know, but after having some discussions with younger and impacted engineers lately, some of their random thoughts and concerns about life issues are echoing in my mind.