Horological Meandering

ThomasM
[PuristS]
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Agree on most points, disagree on some.

Hi, Jack,

Like any industry, there are "good guys" and there are "bad buys" in the watch industry - companies and executives that have integrity, vision, ability. Character, willingness, and means.

Companies and executives that are mostly driven by the profit motive, how to separate the maximum amount of money from potential consumers, and move that money to their own pockets and coffers, through any means possible, including broken promises, lying, cheating, and downright fraud.

The majority of companies and executives tend to fall somewhere in between.

What is so difficult for "communities" such as ours, which have any aspirations of integrity and fairness, of "significance," is the constant battle to find balance between the micro and the macro; between isolated instances and broader systemic problems.

These dynamics apply to both the industry, but also the consumer community, and especially where the two intersect, where the potential for shills and false prophets to take the stage and grab the "mike" is greatest.

I agree that the recent "bubble,"  a result of many factors, allowed as much crap to flourish and as much carelessness to slip through as that which is "good and worthy."  Rising tides floats all boats, even those that deserve to sink.

Contrary to most observers, though, that the current "correction" (which implies a "return to a more natural state of affairs") is akin to a bubble bursting (which implies that it may get broken, never to be "fixed") I have a different take, based on observations and feedback traveling around the world meeting with collectors, enthusiasts, aficionados, and the laymen alike; but also with industry insiders, global and regional executives, and company owners to whom I have privileged access to.  I temper these observations and feedbacks with my own experience of "watching" the industry as both customer, observer, and advisor, over a period of over 30 plus years - hopefully my bullshit filter is properly calibrated.

My take on this "turning point" -

It is more a toilet flush than a coming apocalypse.

The field of high horology has reached "critical mass" and will not likely follow the rarified field of high end buggy whips, which became moribund when the motorcar came along and replaced the horse or ox drawn buggy.

Considering the psycho-dynamics of the potential overall class of "collectors" and enthusiasts, there is now enough of a population who have transcended the mere pigeon holing of timepieces as either

a. timekeeping device

b. social and material status signaling device

c. a narco-substitute for brand fan boys who worship anything with a particular brand on it (Rolex; Patek; Ferrari; Louis Vuitton, et al)

that I have very little concern that the population of enthusiasts will ever die out completely, or even significantly.  In this case I am thinking of abacus or slide rule enthusiasts; of typewriter aficionados. 

There are enough whose eyes light up, whose faces betray a certain epiphany, when they see the beauty of a finely finished movement, or of a beautifully designed movement, for the first time, that indicates an appeal that transcends a tool or mere "product;" an appreciation that indicates fine watchmaking approaches "art," that I feel confident the field will survive business shortcomings, passing momentary "trends" and "fashion."

High horology is more akin to haute couture (which has been with us since mankind first put on some sort of covering besides the skin we are born with) than the latest baggy pants fad that shows crack or low rise jeans that frame some wisps of pubic hear above the waistband.

The danger of a quartz era devastation a la the 1970's is, to me, akin to the Black Plague in Europe - many died, certain populations were greatly thinned (for awhile) but the human race continues to thrive.  Recently we have faced AIDS, SARS, and today we still are threatened by H1N1 (and yes, SARS and AIDS are still terrible threats, as are starvation) - they are very real dangers, but I don't see them as Extinction Level threats.

Oops, sorry, the other side of the world calls. I'll try to come back to this...

In brief -

I agree there are service issues in this industry (as there are in every industry)

I agree some players are more egregious in their lapses than others (as there are in every industry)

I agree much of the industry is still operating in a logistical "stone age" - distribution, communications, production management (projections, parts control, WIP controls);  SAV and failure analysis and reportage, etc etc etc

I disagree self reported public "outings" are as useful, or even as "accurate" as they might appear to be to the laymen.

I disagree the high horology industry is facing an Extinction Level threat, for whatever reason.

Cheers,

TM