Horological Meandering

I frequently receive emails from friends and strangers alike asking about "what xyz is worth."

I am also frequently privy to transaction discussions because I am either a friend of the buyer, seller, or both.

Some frequently heard comments, questions, and cajolings -

"What's a fair price for this watch?" (can exchange watch for car, camera, house, shoes, whatever)

Well, my sincere but ultimately frustrating answer (because it doesn't give a PRACTICAL answer) is, "Whatever a willing buyer and willing seller can agree on."

Market price on an AP End of Days might be $30,000, but if you had $30,000, you might not find one; and if you had one to sell, you might not know anyone with BOTH the money to buy it, or the interest to do so (and vice versa)

So, such questions really are two part -

1. What is a fair MARKET RANGE for this item?
2. Is there someone offering it for a price in that range, or is there someone willing and able to buy it within that range?

"well, I paid aaaaa.zz for that watch; I couldn't sell it for less than that."

Why not? If it was such a steal at the price you paid, do you think it would have been there for you to buy it?

Again, willing buyer and willing seller, AT THE TIME BUYER IS LOOKING TO BUY, AND SELLER IS LOOKING TO SELL.

"This piece is so undervalued, it is a great value."

Just what, exactly, does such a statement mean?  Is it like saying, "my time is worth $1000 an hour, so by talking to you for 30 minutes, you are getting a deal if I don't send you a bill for $500?"

A piece's value is what "the market" is pricing it at; if it were worth more, the market would value it more. If it is worth less, it would be priced less.  That's why they call it "market price" - the price that would "clear the market."

But wait, this is not all nonsense and saying something for nothing.  Actually, there is some merit to the original statement.  The underlying concept is assymetrical valuation and assymetrical information.

For example, if one were to consider most/all factors that a watch addict would say gives a watch value (which see ThePuristS' Calculus) EXCEPT monetary "price," then pieces with the greatest delta or deviation between "intrinsic value" and market pricing would represent the greatest "value."

One example - the GP Three Golden Bridges Tourbillon.

It is comparably expensive to similar complications when new: low - $100's and up.

Yet it is almost shamefully low in the secondary, pre-owned markets (basic models can often be found in the mid-$30's and even lower)

So, many newbies write it off as a low value, over-priced piece, with "low resale value."  This point of view applies to new pieces, but of course it has a trickle down effect on pre-owned pieces as well.

BUT...wait, to connoisseurs, and those who value pride of ownership and enjoyment, who receive their "returns" not in what a watch will sell for when they want to liquidate, but rather in the wearing and appreciation of the beauty, history, design, craftsmanship; to these, the GP Three Golden Bridges Tourbillon, bought used, is a GREAT bargain and one that should be aggressively sought after and scooped up at every opportunity.

Half full, or half empty?

One could focus on the anomoly of why the model line depreciates so much from new, or one could smile to oneself and know that clean pre-owned ones with good provenance are a screaming deal, and snatch them up before the general market comes to its senses.

Just some random musings from an old fart long timer in this gentle madness we call watch collecting...

TM

I agree with your view on value as a collector and the example used with GP as the brand.  Unfortunately, even at a great bargain.... the Three Golden Bridges is beyond my reach.  But, the quality and historical significance of this brand are a couple of reasons for my recent entry level new Vintage 45 acquisition.  Not to purchase a piece because of the price, but knowing the intrinsic value and quality come at a good price compared to other brands enhances ownership for me!

appeal to me.

Cheers,

TM

What an enlightenment to see in print, what I darn well should be aware of, but forget, I love this forum Thank You!

.

I could not have said it better myself.

Finding that delta is one of the more fun parts of the watch hobby for me.  The 3 bridges tourbillon is perhaps the best example I have come across yet.  While mine was not priced quite as low as you speak of, it certainly FEELS like a bargain to me.  Was it a true bargain?  I think I got a very good deal, but if I were to sell it I would be looking at +- a couple grand of what I paid.  So yes, I basically paid market price.  Put this watch next to others with similar market prices though and I think anyone would be shocked that it is not more expensive.

I have a feeling that paragraph did not come out well and I should have stuck with "could not have said it better myself" ;-)

-Steve

Looking forward to meeting up again soon...

And yes, we're working on some follow up to your last passing comment to me...

;-)

TM

The value of a fine watch should not be judged by the dollars, but the experience of it. I always believe that the life is between breathings and a person should not live a life by the dollar value. Of course the financial security is important, but not all of it. Also, what we so call  "value" is a relevant term and a creation of mankind. A "value" is embodied to either an artifact and/or an period of time (experience) in order to have meanings and to create a guideline for people to reference to. For example that everyone hears the saying "If a tree falls in the forest, does it make a sound?" It is the same principle for "value," does a diamond worth a fortune if it exists in a place of no mankind.

I am working as a sales, hence I heard the question, what's fair price or what's the best price, all the time. Just like Thomas said, a fair price is an agreement between seller and buyer. Do some research and purchase a watch at a price that you think is fair and, most important, enjoy the every moment of it.

Just my 2 cents...

Cheers,

ak

.

I read a series of novels about an antique dealer with a special talent for recognizing real from fake. Whenever, he would talk about the price of an object, he would compare it to something real world tangible like a cottage or a vacation in a specific place etc. It was always facinating  because it was non specific and  value related to the object as well as the perception of the reader.

I'd like to read them and I suspect others would too. Thanks.

is the author. Author is an MD whose real name is John Grant. His series of books is about Lovejoy, the antique dealer.

s

Hi, Thomas --

Enjoyed your thoughts on this, although before reading your post it never occured to me that perhaps I should feel bad about the great price I got on my AP EOT!

As you have noted many times, the EOT is a great example of a watch for which there is a very particular buyer (especially because of the city-specific bezel and cams).  The good news is that I got a watch that, after a routine service, was (to me) absolutely as good as a new example, precisely the item I lusted after, all at a fraction of the original list price!  All happiness on this end -- the "market" did indeed work as far as I'm concerned. 

The great thing is that we can choose to buy new, used, or not at all, as long as items are brought to market by willing sellers -- last time I looked, no one was pointing a gun at me!

Best,

Gary G

of someone who appreciates it!

Hope to meet up again soon!

TM

nt

d

perhaps it goes also with your article in IW on watch companies providing value/services to back up their prices.
Watches of nonlimited supply will be eventually priced correctly by the market.Its the limited supply ones that are whats its take to acquire-value to the owner.

I happen to like GP and still couldnt understand its pricing policies.

Hi, Min,

The "fun in the chase" comes from seeing what others don't (or don't YET)

So, the key (at least in this aspect) is to have a feel for what the market will price things, once it "catches up"

This is true of non-limited as well as limited editions.

Think about how well non-limited Porsches have held up in secondary market values, vs the extremely limited Lamborghinis...

GP's new price pricing policies are actually pretty fair, they are just the victims of a very complex market dynamic in the secondary market (some of their own making, some not)

I consider myself an ambassador to Panerai; the 203, while beautiful and highly sought after by the masses, does not move me.  I knew it would be "worth" much more in the secondary market.  I could have got it and flipped it, and the profit alone would have covered the cost of the UN.  But doing so would have denied another collector who hopefully feels about it the way I do my 160A.

Ulysse Nardin as a whole seems to retain a lower level of its original retail than other brands, especially Panerai in this case.  Perhaps I could not even re-sell my beloved 160A for what I paid.  But you know what?  In 5 years or so of watch collecting, and having tried numerous different pieces, I finally found the "one" that I had been looking for.  You can't put a monetary value on that. 

My post devaites from the original discussion.  I offer it as an idea that watch collecting is much more enjoyable when "monetary" value is not a primary concern. 

I was probably among the earliest of Panerai people, but not a paneristi, that group came years later.

Panerai does not even know I exist, well at least then.

But companies that are like UN for example, also treat you as a customer. If you know what I mean.

And keeping in mind, the small size of Panaerai compared to UN.

Bravo!

Bernard, I'm waiting to read your thoughts on this topic...

;-)

of thoughts and experiences some of us have experienced.  My basic response is," It is worth what the market will bare".  Supply and demand ect...

I can e-mail this link to those few individuals who ask the same question when purchasing a mechanical timepiece for the first time.

Thanks again Thomas,

Best Regards,

Kevin

.

Interesting that you go so far, but then add this qualification (emphasis below). I do get what you are saying, though, and it's a point I try to hammer home in all walks of life. All value is subjective because, by definition, value requires and implies a being who values. Lots of philosophical implications there... 

>>BUT...wait, to connoisseurs, and those who value pride of ownership and enjoyment, who receive their "returns" not in what a watch will sell for when they want to liquidate, but rather in the wearing and appreciation of the beauty, history, design, craftsmanship; to these, the GP Three Golden Bridges Tourbillon, bought used , is a GREAT bargain and one that should be aggressively sought after and scooped up at every opportunity.

Interesting that you go so far, but then add this qualification (emphasis below). I do get what you are saying, though, and it's a point I try to hammer home in all walks of life. All value is subjective because, by definition, value requires and implies a being who values. Lots of philosophical implications there... 

BUT...wait, to connoisseurs, and those who value pride of ownership and enjoyment, who receive their "returns" not in what a watch will sell for when they want to liquidate, but rather in the wearing and appreciation of the beauty, history, design, craftsmanship; to these, the GP Three Golden Bridges Tourbillon, bought used, is a GREAT bargain and one that should be aggressively sought after and scooped up at every opportunity.

In any event, I think your analysis immediately above also gets to the foundation of many of the questions seeking clarity regarding value. We look to understand value from multiple perspectives. Perhaps I'm in fact willing to pay $Y for a watch, but if its not a good deal (i.e., it can generally--or with some waiting--be found for $Y-X), then maybe I'd pass and wait for a less expensive offer to come along. Nothing wrong with that. A stock can be a good value at $25, but if you think you can purchase shares within a month for $20, then what you probably won't be doing is buying shares for $25 even though it otherwise meets your value criteria. Another value perspective is whether the value of a piece is comparable to other available pieces in the market. The perceived value of the used GP tourbillon is in large part due to its comparables. Our subjective value of one piece often increases or decreases as the cost of other pieces rises and falls.

So in my mind the question of value is perhaps more nuanced than your giving it credit for; but in truth, I'm not privy to the communications to which you refer, so perhaps that's simply not the case. Oh, and I'll definitely agree on one important point:  there is way too much attention on cost and money and not enough attention placed on the timepieces themselves. But the curious thing about that is...the people who emphasize cost and money derive value from viewing their timepieces as denominated in dollars (or yen, pounds sterling, etc.) to the partial exclusion of viewing them as pieces of art. Yet another testament to subjective value...

Cheers,
John

and hopefully, discovery is made on every revisiting.

Hi,

Thanks for your comments, and hopefully, despite your "though"  you found my words were able to strike some chord or resonance.

About the bought used qualifier, that was in the specific context of that intersection between "value" and "market price"

I am not immune, and except for some heads of state or overnight tycoon, I don't think many others are, either, to the siren call of value-denominated-in-currency.  Even the purest purist, those who can FEEL intrinsic value, occasionally suffer lapses of venality.  Social indoctrination (nurture) is just too powerful...

That said, I feel the GP Three Bridge Tourbillon is also a very high intrinsic value piece NEW (I've purchased most of mine new, and only one pre-owned.)

Cheers,

TM

to this wonderful thread.

Whilst I write this answer I am listening to the 6th Symphony (the Pastorale) of Beethoven, which
contains one of the most beautiful music I have ever heard in my life, particularly the last one after the thunderstorm.

Great to have you as a friend and warm regards

Lord Arran

I am honored to call you friend, and look forward to again share a great bottle of wine with some passionately prepared cuisine.

My best to Lady Arran.

TM

Hello Thomas...
I miss the Longines...if you ever want to sell it, I will buy it...even if it still has that hair sticking out of the case.   

Value and Price are simple for me.  The Price is what the buyer and seller agree on in dollars (or euros or whatever).  The Value is the emotion in the heart...the flush of excitment at the moment of new ownership...the pang of regret as and old friend slips from you fingers.

Climbing a great mountain is simple, but rarely if ever is it easy.  Falling in love is easy, but rarely if ever is it simple.  

I hope you life is happy.

John