patrick_y[PuristSPro Moderator]
28446
I analyze business cases like this all the time... It's still too much like public transportation...
Nov 21, 2017,13:35 PM
I analyze business cases like this all the time.
Unless you live/work really close to their locations, then it's not going to work. Furthermore, the costs are exorbitant. It makes sense as an airport shuttle. But as a daily, expense, the pricing of $60-$140 round trip is exorbitant even among the top 5% of Californians. Assuming a user would use one seat three days a week, at an average of $49 per trip (not peak, peak traffic is around $79 a trip) you're looking at an average of $98 round trip, $300 a week, $1200 a month, close to $15,000 a year! It's cheap to have a driver at $15,000 a year for a wealthy person, but for a normal, upper-middle-class employee, then that's still quite steep!
I'd use it for airport transfers. And I can sometimes fly from SFO to San Diego for not much more than $79 each way if I book the tickets far enough in advance.
Other worries: cost of vehicle, reliability of the vehicle...
The last question here is... Did they choose the correct vehicle? If they chose a less expensive vehicle like a Toyota Sienna minivan, which is more reliable but has a much higher $0.15 per mile fuel cost. Assuming that each vehicle does around 500 miles a day, or $75 in fuel. The Tesla is somewhere around half that in fueling cost. So, is that $30 delta worth the lease extra costs of having "spare Tesla Model X" vehicles in your fleet? The vehicle reliability alone can jeapordize the entire business plan. A single car going down strands 4 passengers. If any passenger gets stranded twice, no matter the compensation provided by the Tesloop corporation, they will not return. Maybe they should've chosen a larger vehicle (a 10-15 passenger van)? So they can carry more fares. There's very little advantage of having a vehicle of this size other than saving gasoline, the gasoline you save does cover the increase in the lease payment, but at the expense of capacity is a problem.
Are there government subsidies? Does the state and counties pay Tesloop to reduce the traffic on Interstate 5?
Lastly, what are the kinds of people using the service? Are they all "chatty" people like the ones on Jet Smarter and the other jet-ride-shares who are trying to network and socialize with the strangers on the plane? Flying normal commercial has a nice etiquette, everyone is quiet, and doesn't talk to each other, and watches TV to pass the time (unless you're on a discount airline like Iceland's WOW carrier that doesn't have food nor TV and then the passengers - many of whom are young millennials without an appreciation of etiquette - socialize on the plane and sleepy passengers can't sleep). So is everyone quiet? Can I get work done? Or are two people going to be chatting and ruining it for everyone?
It's an aggressive and risky project. Let's see how well it works!