Horological Meandering

Ornatus-Mundi
[Zenith]
7136

• Show profile
• Show other posts

The State of the Watch Industry: Swiss Franc, Asian economic slowdown & the Apple Watch!

Since about a year, Watch World is not what it used to be: the industry has been experiencing some unprecedented external challenges. After a long period of continuous record sales, year upon year, a severe and sizeable slowdown and regression of its international sales was noted. Compared to last year, the exports plummeted by almost 14% (in terms of units shipped) or more than 10% (in value). Smart watches have more sales than the entire Swiss watch industry. The consequences are dropping profits, brands ceasing operation, and workforce lay-offs. In this article I will investigate the factors and provide an outlook on how the watch industry could react.

In recent years, the Swiss watch industry has seem a fantastic growth outpacing most other economic developments and seemingly being largely unaffected by crises (at least recovery was fast). However, during the last 12 months the situtation changed dramatically: Swiss watch exports shrunk, significantly so (it should be noted though, that as a benchmark, 2015 was the industry's thrid best year in history).

Several economic and technology drivers can be held responsible, including the rise of the Swiss franc (quite suddenly because the SNB unexpectedly lifted the peg to the Euro in January 2015), the economic slowdown in Asia - and the emergence of smart watches (particularly the Apple Watch which is considered a game-changer).

Says the Swiss Watch Industry association (Fédération de l'Industrie Horlogère Suisse (FHS)):

"January 2016 - Start of the year sees steep decline : Swiss watch exports have stayed in line with the trend apparent in the fourth quarter of 2015. In January 2016, their value totalled 1.5 billion francs, a fall of 7.9% compared to a year ago. An unfavourable environment continues to hold back results in the sector." [FHS, monthly export statistics for January 2016]

The development is mainly attributed to the two leading markets: Hong Kong -33.1% and USA -13.7%. Interestingly enough, Japan as well as Europe continue to be the saviours with a consecutive significant growth.

The graphs and tables tell a perturbing story: The downturn is measured across the entire price range of Swiss watches. While the industry representatives have largely (at least) tried to dismiss the severeness of the impacts, now, with more or less one year (depending on which factor you consider) having past, the first authoritative data points are in.

The reactions so far tell an alarming story. Here are a few anecdotal data points to illustrate an industry-wide reality:

• Richemont indicates a reduction of worksforce by 350 people
• Swatch Group profits slump by 19 %
• Severe difficulties in selling the brand Maurice Lacroix (which given its vertical integration and in-house capabilites would be considerd blue chip quality only 2 years ago!)

Industry-wide, the sentiment is rather bleak. In a survey consulting firm Deloitte conducted amongst 51 CEOs on the industry, only 14% could offer an optimistic outlook into the future - 41% expect it getting worse. 34% attribute the worsening to increasing problematic sales in Asia. On the other hand, industry leaders are gaining trust in the USA, the European as well as in the Latin American markets: 91%, 62% and 59%, respectively, are confident that these markets will yield positive results in the years to come. The economic problems, exchange rates as well as smart watches are cited as reasons.

Thus, the signs are clear to read. In the following I would like to discuss them and provide an outlook on how the watch industry might react - I am sure that next week in Basel we'll see a number of reactions already!

Contributing Factors:

1.) Currency exchange rates: 

The following graphs represent the exchange rate development for the last 5 years for the CHF against the Euro, GPB, USD and the Renminbi, respectively:

What you clearly see is that the Euro dropped considerably (by more than 34% compared to March 2011), to a smaller extend also the CNY (by more than 45%), the USD (by nearly 42%) and finally the GBP (by almost 32%). Note that in every case the largest drop coincides strongly with the drop of the Euro.

Also, with the Euro you clearly see the start of the crisis in 2012, followed by a period where the SNB enforced a minimum exchange rate to the CHF, and finally the deep dive when the SNB lifted the peg in January 2015. It was the when over night Swiss products' prices rose 15% because of the exchange rate issue!

One has to keep in mind that the Swiss economy is highly expert-oriented, with the EU as it main trade partner. 55% of all exports go into the EU. The Swiss dependence on EU trade is illustrated by the fact that trade volume with the southern German 'Bundesland' Baden-Würtemberg alone exceeds that of the trade with the entire USA! The effect of the exchange rate changes must be sever, as particularly the EUR never really recovered from the Hanuary 2015 shock (compare with the other three currencies!).

Thus, those exchange rates are of prime importance to the Swiss economy - a matter of life and death for export industries! 

So does the Renminbi 'save' the Swiss watch industry? That's doubtful. Sales in Chinese mainland historically lagged behind - high rents & wages combined with low sales efficiency - compared to other main shopping locations. But there are other factors: import and luxury taxes. While Switzerland sealed a free trade agreement with China a year ago (which more than halved import taxes) there is still the issue of the 20% luxury tax levied on timepieces exceeding CNY 10,000 (roughly CHF 1500).

Thus, it is no wonder that the average price of a Swiss watch sold in China is CHF 616 compared to a global average of CHF 2,143. Now, consider which price is closer to the Apple Watch average price?

On August 11, a second time on August 12, and a third time on August 13, the People’s Bank of China cut its daily reference rate by 1.9 %, 1.6 % and 1.1%, respectively, triggering the yuan’s biggest one-day drop since China ended a dual-currency system in January 1994 and furthermore the biggest drop of the exchange rate in the last 20 years. 

This will furthermore harm watch imports to mainland China and create uncertainty amongst Chinese watch buyers - remember, many Chinese customers buy their high end watches abroad!

2.) Economic slowdown in Asia:

Officially, the Chinese economy is said to grow at the (communist party predicted) 7% rate, but analysts's doubt (i) this figure and (ii) its sustainability for the coming months. 

As reported by Reuters in early August this year Chinese exports fell by almost 9%, and producers faced deflation now for more than 40 months in a row (meaning - they hold back crucially needed investments). Exports however are hampered by an official strong Yuan policy. Combined with a dwindling housing market and weak investments you have some core ingredients for a severe economic cooling, and this is reflected at the stock market which took a significant 30% hit this quarter:

As a result, firms are starting to reduce costs, which in China mainly means - layoffs. In fact, they have been doing so in sizeable numbers since more than 1.5 years. 

Unemployment does not help watch sales - for sure! In particular, it does not help expand the emergence of a middle class needed to sustain a vibrant watch trade. The sales of automobiles in China dropped by more than 7% in July.

Consequently, watch sales declined in China since two years, with sales down by 12.5% and 3.1% in 2013 and 2014, respectively. The large decline in 2013 is almost exclusively attributable to the anti-corruption campaign enacted after the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China held in November 2012. Precious watches were used as bribes and gifts to high-level officials, provincial leaders and petty civil servants alike.

According to watch industry insider and horological globetrotter Gisbert L. Brunner, watch retailers in Hongkong as well as in neighbouring Macau are sitting on an unhealthy number of unsold watches. This does induce a 'war on discount', thus lowering prices, channelling them through a network of grey market dealers and - very importantly - binds capital needed to place new orders with the manufacturers. A vicious circle (which also explains why the tremendous effects are seen only now with some delay)!

Asian, Chinese investors see the problems of the Swiss luxury watch industry unfold in front of their house door - see Maurice Lacroix. The brand was in 2011 bought by 'market expansion service provider' DKSH which has its focus set on Asia. DKSH intended to capitalise on Maurice Lacroix' strong presence in Asia as an entry point for luxury distribution services in the area. Bad timing! According to Bloomberg, the brand was particularly badly hit by the economic woes, with eventually seeing discounts of up to 66% offered on their watches. Maurice Lacroix is a vertically integrated brand and true manufacturer. Just 5 years ago the combniation of its capabilities and deep expertise was considered blue chip quality - nowadays, DKSH is facing immense difficulties finding a buyer. The competition has stepped up, the brand identity of Maurice Lacrioux not strong enough (compared to TAG Heuer, Omega or Rolex) and the market prospects are too fragile for many potential buyers to justify the expense.

3.) Smart watches, particularly the Apple Watch:

It might sound crazy but swart watches are actually quite 'vintage': already 20 years ago the first such specimens entered the market (and even before that, we have wrist calculators. A car mechanic had such a Casio one but never used it. As a pupil I could not understand why he left such a futuristic device untouched. His comment to me: 'I need my work actually getting done'...    Here are a few milestones:

• [left] In 1994, the famous Timex Datalink, a so-called wristwatch, already realised a wireless data transfer mode to communicate with a PC. Appointments and contacts created with Microsoft Schedule+, the predecessor of MS Outlook, could be easily transmitted to the watch via a screen blinking light protocol.
• [middle] In June 2000, IBM displayed a prototype for a wristwatch that ran Linux. The device was later upgraded with an accelerometer, vibrating mechanism, and fingerprint sensor.
• [right] In 2003, American-based watch company Fossil, Inc. released its Fossil Wrist PDA running Palm OS.

This day in April will most likely be remembered well. It was an inclination point. Not because the Apple Watch sold like the proverbial hot cakes (it apparently did very well), but somewhere between its announcement and its release to the market the perception of such a device within the traditional watch industry changed fundamentally: From ridicule and outright refusal to interest and finally even to some own attempts:

• "The Apple watch is an interesting toy, but not a revolution," Nick Hayek, Tageanzeiger 21 August 2015
• "On the future of smartwatches: We are handicapped by how thick these watches need to be, but every year it will become possible to make them thinner. But, although every new connected watch will quickly become obsolete, I believe the low-end of the Swiss watch industry will be badly affected by them. At the same time, I also believe the connected watch will actually promote the art of traditional watches, because people will appreciate even more that haute horlogerie is designed to survive for generations, not to be replaced every few months." Jean-Claude Biver, Financial Times 19 March 2015

However, the smart watches have proven they are here to stay. Moreover, they did it massively so. Let's revisit the shipment breakdown into categories and add - for comparison - the data from September 2015. Four months later, we'll find an interesting fact: watches costing more than 500 francs (export price) set the trend in value terms. Less expensive timepieces had the greater effect on volumes. Particularly the latter is a new readout which was not seem (to this extent) only four months ago.


This points to the assumption that of the three factors mentioned in the introductory paragraph particularly the exchange rate changes (affects price sensitive customers) as well as the smart watches gaining influence. The latter is accelerating its influence at a rapid pace: In the 2015 Deloitte survey I mentioned in the introductory chapter, 25% of the watch industry CEOs cite the intelligent newcomes as a threat - compared to the 11% in 2014 this is more than 100% gain! Particularly Asian, but also French and Italian consumers are more and more interested in acquiring a smart watch.

Indeed, the watch industry has all reason to be concerned. If one considers the data from IT industry consultancy Strategy Analytics, smart watches as a category shipped in the 4th quarter of 2015 at a volume of 8.1 mio pieces, which is 200'000 pieces more than the entire Swiss watch industry. 63% of these shipments, or 5.1 mio pieces, are attributed singularly to the Apple Watch. This is impressive for a total newcomer in the watch market. Compare Apple's 63% share of the smart watch market with the 1% share of Swiss companies - and this includes already TAG Heuer's Connected watch.

What are the reasons for this? EuropaStar described it frankly: Apple challenged the luxury watch industry in three of their key competitive advantage disciplines: 

1) Timekeeping: One of the Apple Watch features is the device's precise timekeeping, which Apple says is within 50 milliseconds of the global time standard. The Apple Watch is so accurate that the hands of two Apple Watches placed next to one another will move in perfect unison. This is achieved in a way only connected devices can: Apple's 15 Network Time Protocol (NTP) servers around the world, kept inside of buildings with GPS antennas that connect to GPS satellites, broadcast time data from the U.S. Naval Observatory in Washington, D.C. The NTP serves communicate the time to iPhones across the world, and the iPhone in turn syncs with the Apple Watch via Bluetooth to provide the exact time. The watch corrects delays by software, taking its own environmental conditions into account. Thus, the Apple Watch is more accurate than the iPhone! On New Year's Eve - just listen to the Apple watch owners!

2) Branding: According to a study exectued by analytics firm NetBase (based on social media data), Apple managed to beat the archetypical iconic luxury watch firm Rolex in a 'luxury sentiment ranking' ('archetypical' because of its recognition in the general public). In contrast to its competitors, Apple understood the lifestyle and luxury allure of the watch industry and designed and marketed the connected device accordingly: Not only its technical aspects, its apps, but moreover also the fashion aspect: colours, materials, straps, bracelets, watch faces. While the watch industry heavily promotes its traditional values and history, Apple injects the young, the new and the fresh as a selling point squarely into the heart of this industry. Angela Ahrends has not been hired by Apple  without reason, and it is not just beacuse of her negotiation skills that her payment statement is 2.5x that of Apple's CEO...

3) Detail & Design - and functionality: A fundamental answer why Apple is so unexpectedly successful has partly been addressed in point 2 above. Its in the details which the company so well masters. This is not a simply well designed IT product. Just look at the image above with the details I highlighted. This has beauty, refinement and aesthetic appeal (even if not compatible with one's own tastes) - and has nothing to do with a smartwatch: this is excellent watchmaking, basically! Details conceived with love! And consider the additional benefits to users in today's connected world: music, boarding passes, calendars, one's private fitness trainer, all aspects which makes life a lot simpler in an increasingly connected world. Combine this with the stylishness, the freshness and the youth. Thus, there is a substantial risk that an Apple Watch (or, in a few months, once others learn and catch up) will substitute the wristwatch. Probably not on the same wrists that previously sported mechanical watches, but on other wrists, younger ones perhaps, likely different ones. That's a danger on its own account. I would not necessarily bet on the notion that smart watch owners will mature towards a 'real' watch (did the pocket watch ever resurface after the wristwatch took over?)!

• Price reduction: The Richemont brands have reduced prices in Asia, and Jean-Claude Biver ordered TAG Heuer to slash the prices already in February 2015 – with some tanglible success. Zenith will do the same this year at BaselWorld (we will see...!). The crux with price reductions in general is similar to a deflation: people might hold purchase to see whether further reductions surface, or how competing brands behave. Furthermore, it is not a very good measure to foster brand loyalty, as one has to expect such reductions in the future which will put pressure on the resell (=second hand) prices. Less a problem for affordable brands like TAG, but that might be different for Zenith.
• More offerings in steel: Essentially, if you look at the SIHH novelties one could see a trend here: Brands like Vacheron Constantin have lowered the entry prices by offering their novelties in steel. H. Moser & Cie. just announed to offer their proprietary Endeavour perpetual calendar in steel. In essence, for horologically-affine customers certainly a very attractive proposition which has the benefit of not watering-down your brand image.
• Entry-level innovation: A third strategy is to create compelling horogolical creations geared towards more affordable market segments. Montblanc launched a price-crusher with the Héritage collection, offering a full perpetual calendar below € 10.000. Cartier even has created an entire new lines (Clé and Drive) which are intended to seduce budget oriented Cartier customers, with different personalities. The Drive particularly is intended to have a mass-appeal. These two collections are remarkable because they fish in waters Cartier had negelected, actively, in the decade before. For BaselWorld, Glashütte Original will present a new movement full of impressive technical and aesthetic refinement, complemented with superb watchmaking details that will make this new movement a role model. Again, it is time-only and comes, in steel, in an attractive (significantly) below 10.000€ price range. But also on a very entry level brands like Tissot, Rado or even Meistersinger and Oris increasingly try to differentiate themselves with technically unique propositions (ETA's 80h PowerMatic movement, just to name an example). I think this is a very much appreciated (& needed!) addition to the entry level.
• Get the details right: If there is one lesson from the Apple Watch, then it is the one about the details. Look at them (see above!), and then consider the price of the piece. A close view on an Apple bracelet could tell Swiss watch product designers legion. Enough said!
  

3.) Join the Smart Bandwagon:
Obviously, the watch industry will answer 'directly' to the threat posed by the smart or connected devices. After an inital dismissive reaction, some players were very quick to embrace the new competition. Below are a few examples - TAG Heuer (Connected), Breitling (B55 Connected) and Montblanc (e-Strap):



The examples above represent different apporaches all under a common theme: the watch manufacturers want to do it themselves. I am not enirely sure that is will be the way to go. Essentially, judging from my conversations with several industry CEOs recently, I do not have the impresssion that they sufficiently understand what all these smart and connected devices are all about. The TAG Heuer Connected basically is a quickly designed watch offering little unique selling points (except that it looks like a TAG Heuer mechanical watch, which already says a lot...). It has no biometric sensors and offers only limited interoperability with Apple's iOS ecosystem (being Android powered). That is a significant limitation if one considers the demographics of the Android vs. the iOS customer base. Oh yes, it has brand ambassador design unique faces... Jean-Claude Biver made sure his usual marketing tricks are extended to the brand's smart watch as well. But where is the compelling argument for this piece rooted in its 'smartness'? TAG Heuer seems not to be too confident as well, offering the Connected essentially as a 'voucher' for a real one (with a nice 'upgrade' price attached to it) hoping that the customer eventually 'matures' into connaisseur. But, as the EuropaStar magazine correctly objects: did pocket watches ever recover after the wristwatches came?

As for the Breitling B55 Connected, I really like what I am seeing here. Its based and improves upon an already existing aviation-themed tool watch, fully electronic ab originem. But Breitling has other options to pursue... Just look at this images (taken from the web) and the UTC module integrated into the bracelet:




Montblanc's e-Strap actually points into a similar direction as an accessory which enhances your mechancial watch, to be used/attached/mounted whenever needed. The e-Strap itself needs to mature as well, being of low techncial specification and with rather cumbersome ergonomics. However, I think this is a promising direction which warrants further investments (techology, usability, integration with the main watch lines etc.). The entry mid-level brand Victorinox for example partnered with computing giant Acer to create this 'convertible' attachment which I think is much more matured in about every aspect:

In this case, both partners really brought their respective core competencies into play. And again, the result (or the relatively little modifications needed) is just another manifestiation of how well Apple mastered the luxury and lifestyle aspects already when creating the Apple Watch...

Particularly at the lower priced segment I would expect some connected watches this year, Rado, Tissot, Frederique Constant, I am looking at you  

Certainly, I guess the watch industry must clearly understand the allure of a smart device, contrast this with the reason why people buy classical, mechanical watches and then try to entangle the connecting points. The one question needs to be answered: what unique value would a watch-brand created smart watch add that the existing ones could not? Just ot be part of it does not ssem to be enough to create a true differentiator. The idea of a 'plug-in' smart module really gets attractive here. It could measuring when your watch is off beat, indicating you changed timezone, telling you when NOT to set your perpetual calendar, asking you to set your strap one loop lose because you are in a humid tropical region now, alerting you what to prepare for a trip, gauging this info from the air tickets stored in your e-wallet ...

4.) Upgrade the Buying Experience:
Principally this means: invest in sales experience: Invest in training and education (conveying the message and fascination of a mechanical watch will be more important than ever!), involve your target audience, and, depending on your brand's market position, embrace e-commerce! Again, LVMH's Mr Biver will be the forerunner here.


5.) Consider New Streams of Revenue: Service!

This message has been edited by Ornatus-Mundi on 2016-03-10 06:01:53

Site Info.