LuxeConsult & Morgan Stanley Swiss Watch Industry Report 2024

Key Points from the Discussion

• The overall unit volume for the Swiss watch industry experienced a significant decline, dropping from 15.9 million units in 2023 to 13.4 million units in 2024.
• Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, and Richard Mille collectively command a substantial 47% aggregate market share, highlighting their dominance in the luxury segment.
• Longines showed a notable decline, possibly due to heavy investment in the Chinese market, which has seen significant sales drops for many brands.
• Breguet, Glashütte Original (GO), and Harry Winston experienced drastic year-over-year production decreases of over 50%, which is considered an alarming rate for these brands.
• Bell & Ross and Greubel Forsey (GF) fell off the list entirely, with the latter's absence potentially linked to changes in leadership despite reported increases in production.
• Some of the estimated figures, particularly Patek Philippe's average retail price of 43,620 CHF, were questioned, suggesting that a large volume of entry-level ladies' models might skew the average.
• Cartier's strong performance was a surprise to some, indicating a high volume of sales, while Glashütte Original and Girard-Perregaux, despite being at the bottom of the list, are recognized by enthusiasts for their 'secret treasures'.
• Seiko's financial results for 9M FY24 (April-December 2024) showed positive growth, with net sales up 13.1% year-over-year and operating profit up 47.1%, contrasting with some Swiss brands.
• The estimated 12-month sales for Seiko are around 1,810 million CHF, with an operating profit of 121 million CHF, demonstrating a different market position compared to the luxury Swiss brands.
• Patek Philippe's secondary market prices are reportedly down by 60%, which has made some customers happy, suggesting a potential need for the brand to expand its jewelry sales.
• MB&F, despite being rated last in production volume, is highlighted as potentially one of the best brands, emphasizing that small independents can offer exceptional quality.
• Swatch produces a massive volume of watches, estimated at 5,800,000 units at an average price of 141 CHF each, representing a significant amount of work for a lower-margin product.
• H. Moser & Cie. is noted for doing well, indicating positive performance for a smaller, independent brand within the luxury segment.
• Rolex maintains its position as number one in production, with Omega ranking fourth and Patek Philippe fifth, while Girard-Perregaux has minimal production.
• The spending power of women in the watch market should not be underestimated, as many prioritize jewelry appeal over horological technicalities.