Patek Philippe

whit
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Questions about collecting and market trends.

I read the two posts which were locked regarding collectible pieces and I thought I would give some of my observations on a very touchy subject.  I hope that this will be considered an acceptable post.

I have had the opportunity to see Patek and their level of business develop over the past 28 years.  Early on, it was a very lean level of business across the board (simple to complicated pieces) and in fact, a 3450 was not a difficult item to obtain at all.  Jumbo Nautiluses, skeletons, etc. were all very available to reasonably available as well.  Couldn't tell you about repeaters because the only pieces with repeaters were pocket watches.  Supposedly production numbers were 8-10,000 per year.

 The first rather dramatic change occurred in '88-'89 with the 150th anniversary celebration along with Patek's purchase of the Packard watch which received quite a bit of national (maybe even international) press coverage.  The  Calibre '89, jump hour, campaign watch, minute repeater, and the perpetual calendar  minute repeater were introduced and within months of their introduction, prices started moving up dramatically.  Also, it seemed that at the same time the auction market for complicated and unusual pieces (top hat's, hour glass, triple dates) started bringing some pretty stunning figures.  The race seemed to be on and running.

From then, things started moving pretty quickly. The awareness of Patek Philippe became far more visible than ever before and folks began to want to know more about PP and what is it with this pocket watch that sold for a zillion dollars. The Pagoda, 10 day, other limited pieces were produced along with the Annual Calendar with an eager and hungry  market  waiting.  Amazingly though, when the 5070 in yellow was introduced, it did not experience the crazy "feeding frenzy" that we have all seen with the 5970 or the 5070P, it was quite mild.

Three years ago, things were quite different. Production was at a level never experienced before by Patek attempting to quench the thirst of watch collectors, first time buyers, folks in the secondary/gray markets and there were more vintage pieces available, not to mention that some very crazy money was flying around. Not that the market was flooded, but clearly watch collecting became a serious pastime for a great number of folks who were not around 25 years ago.  It seemed that folks wanted the "Special Pieces"  that were hard to get and obviously command more money, with little regard for the basic line.  So much so, that if you wanted a "Special Piece" some dealers were making folks buy additional basic piece(s).

Today, things are a little different and the market is reacting accordingly.  With money being tight, there is a correction developing where values are now finding new levels.  I don't know how long this will last and it would total speculation by almost anyone to venture a guess, even a SWAG as to when things would get back to pre-Sept 2008 conditions.  And I feel the same way about the watch market, I only know that it will continue at whatever pace the market dictates and Patek will produce some more incredible pieces in the very near future.  Prices will go up and down and there will forever folks only wanting to buy pieces that will experience the greatest appreciation and to those folks I would only offer one thought that was passed on to me "you want to know how to make a small fortune in watches? Start out with a big one."

But all in all, I love it and it's been a great ride, only hope that I've got some strong shock absorbers!

PS. This is a subject that we could all type many pages about, I tried to be brief because I just can't type worth a flip and it takes me forever.