Jay (Eire)
9153
Great conversation Nick, thanks for starting it.
Nov 16, 2019,20:03 PM
As has already been pointed out the Roger Smiths and Gronefelds of this world are likely somewhat immune. For these special craftspeople and watchmakers there will likely always be a consumer.
On the bigger, broader picture, I think much of this outcome will hinge ultimately on how well mass market luxury can continue to be sold. Rolex, Patek, Omega/Swatch and Cartier/Richemont will continue to invest vast sums of money to keep luxury alive.
A positive for this is that there are hundreds of millions of people for whom the aspiration to own a Rolex (or perhaps it’s an Omega) is only just become, or not even yet become a, thing.
One personal observation from my (limited) participation in offline watch groups and events is that I see a lot of younger people (20’s, early 30’s is what I’m classifying as young these days). I think more than I recall from AD or brand events 10 years ago. And those younger people I see, they all appear to spending far greater amounts of money on watches than I was at their age (yes, retail prices are obviously higher by a lot even in the last 10 years but it still appears to be a bigger spend relative to income).
All said, I don’t have a conclusion.