Bill
29268
This is really market forces - supply and demand equation and supply will still be short.
Mar 03, 2020,07:36 AM
With buyer of high-end luxury these items (5- 10- 50k+) are not a necessity. You could even compare this to buying a starbuck coffee. You decide to postpone this month or for a few months then simply go back to starbuck or in the case of the watch go back to buying. And again supply and demand will set the rate or for starbuck recover the lost revenue. The short supply of new Nautilus may also be constrained if demand slows and the short supply of new will support the second market.
So the bottom line is "Bubble" is not the best way to describe this situation but rather a possible new entry point for those who have been hoping for a little softness to jump in. A bubble would if Patek flooded the market and new was being sold at 50% discount not what is being described as only a 50-70% markup.
So many collectors can rejoice. And the speculators well too bad for now. A little reprise for those on the sidelines
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Coronavirus and Nautilus bubble
By: ID1972Sr : March 3rd, 2020-03:45
A quick consideration about our beloved brand and current global situation. One side effect of the new coronavirus spreading all around the world would probably be the burst of the Nautilus bubble. Demand from Far Eastern countries is going to drop (at le...
Not entirely sure that will happen...
By: tokyo_watch_guy : March 3rd, 2020-04:00
Typically in a crisis or "technical recession" people fly to safety. Personally I think watches like the Nautilus, Daytona will remain strong, perhaps a small hit. The peripheral brands, ie the Richemont, Swatch will take a much larger hit.
Look at gold
By: ID1972Sr : March 3rd, 2020-06:04
It is the safe Harbour by definition, but it fell over the last few days (after 7 years of growth)
Gold is often misunderstood. Up 3.2% today, 4.06% this month, and 8% over 52 weeks. The price of gold moves in relation to inflation, yields, break-evens, and currency crosses, USD, JPY and CHF, most notably. Also, volatility. Rate and Equity vol.
By: U3O8 : March 3rd, 2020-08:56
As for the "bubble", I have long held the belief, and opinion (my own), and not empirically, statistically or factually backed-up, that the political situation in Hong Kong would cause a temporary dislocation in the availability of the Rolex watches most ...
Another perspective..
By: Fjan : March 3rd, 2020-04:26
A fellow collector friend in Shanghai told me during the last month of “shut down” due to coronavirus, he discovered special bonding with his large collection of timepieces. Mostly are safe queens which he had no time to appreciate them during his normal ...