Coronavirus and Nautilus bubble

Mar 03, 2020,03:45 AM
 

A quick consideration about our beloved brand and current global situation.

One side effect of the new coronavirus spreading all around the world would probably be the burst of the Nautilus bubble.

Demand from Far Eastern countries is going to drop (at least in 2020) and balance between supply and demand will probabily drive to more "normal" prices.

Bubble would have probably exploded even without the virus (when I sold my 5712 I was fearing it), but virus will probably accelerate the process. 

If you look at steel 5712 and 5980 prices on a popular online marketplace,the first is now under the 60k euro mark, while the latter under 90k...

Have a great week

I


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Not entirely sure that will happen...

 
 By: J.N : March 3rd, 2020-04:00
Typically in a crisis or "technical recession" people fly to safety. Personally I think watches like the Nautilus, Daytona will remain strong, perhaps a small hit. The peripheral brands, ie the Richemont, Swatch will take a much larger hit.

Agree (regarding the peripheral brands)

 
 By: Lankysudanese : March 3rd, 2020-04:09
No message body

Look at gold

 
 By: ID1972Sr : March 3rd, 2020-06:04
It is the safe Harbour by definition, but it fell over the last few days (after 7 years of growth)

Gold is often misunderstood. Up 3.2% today, 4.06% this month, and 8% over 52 weeks. The price of gold moves in relation to inflation, yields, break-evens, and currency crosses, USD, JPY and CHF, most notably. Also, volatility. Rate and Equity vol.

 
 By: U3O8 : March 3rd, 2020-08:56
As for the "bubble", I have long held the belief, and opinion (my own), and not empirically, statistically or factually backed-up, that the political situation in Hong Kong would cause a temporary dislocation in the availability of the Rolex watches most ... 

Looking forward to this

 
 By: Rei : March 3rd, 2020-04:20
So far still expensive though already off highs

Another perspective..

 
 By: janef : March 3rd, 2020-04:26
A fellow collector friend in Shanghai told me during the last month of “shut down” due to coronavirus, he discovered special bonding with his large collection of timepieces. Mostly are safe queens which he had no time to appreciate them during his normal ... 

This is really market forces - supply and demand equation and supply will still be short.

 
 By: Bill : March 3rd, 2020-07:36
With buyer of high-end luxury these items (5- 10- 50k+) are not a necessity. You could even compare this to buying a starbuck coffee. You decide to postpone this month or for a few months then simply go back to starbuck or in the case of the watch go back... 

I know this is a watch forum and this is a post about watches...

 
 By: blau : March 3rd, 2020-07:56
but I can't help it: secondary market prices for Patek Philippes should be *really* low on our list of concerns in the case of a pandemic spread of a deadly virus.