F.P. Journe

patrick_y
[PuristSPro Moderator]
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You're making me miss my former company car now... A Model S P100D.

Look at LCID stock; here's a quick and very basic analysis... This is an electric car company. Market cap is currently only $30B. It’s primary investor is the Saudi Government. The company is headquartered in Newark, CA near Fremont where Tesla has their factory. 

Lucid is making a high end $100,000 sedan equivalent to the Tesla Model S and Mercedes S Class. The design is interesting. They have excellent technology when it comes to motors (higher power than Tesla, lower weight than Tesla, lower power consumption than Tesla, probably lower cost due to lower weight, but unknown reliability compared to Tesla). Lucid uses an LG cell battery (not pouch) that they do not produce in-house. 

Lucid has a brand new factory built in Arizona and is scheduled to be releasing their new cars in late 2021. It is believed that their Lucid Air 2022 model will have a 520 mile EPA range (using EPA measurement standards), the longest in the industry. 

At a $30B valuation, Lucid is a little low compared to Rivian (which makes pick up trucks and SUVs and is backed by Ford and by Amazon). 

Rivian is currently valued at $70B-80B and it’s not even public yet. Rivian does make an SUV and truck, currently SUVs are faster sellers than sedans, even in the high end market. 

Tesla is currently valued at over $750B. 

From the valuations of Rivian at $70B-80B and Tesla at $750B and climbing, I would say Lucid stock has potential at its current valuation of only $30B. 

Continuing risks:
1. Lucid’s car may not sell well. 
2. Looking at the car’s design, the rear trunk space opening is small and oddly shaped. Critics may not like it. 
3. Mercedes-Benz and BMW are starting to enter the EV space. With products in the pipeline coming in 2022. 
4. Tesla may release a new product to compete with Lucid’s product. 
5. Lucid’s car may be unreliable or have big problems. Fire, crashes, defects, etc. 
6. Lucid doesn’t have the special charging network that Tesla has. Tesla has thousands of Tesla gas stations (chargers). Tesla has said they will open their gas stations to regular EVs too. 7. Lucid's intelligent cruise control with lane centering and matching-the-speed-of-the-car-ahead system may not be as good as Tesla's "Autopilot." 8. As far as full-self-driving goes, it is uncertain if Lucid will ever have a lead or if they will just rely on Waymo or another service provider.  9.  Lucid at $30B is a great takeover target for Apple, but Apple doesn't have the stomach for a hostile takeover and Lucid executives/board/investors would likely be resistant.

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