No-Reserve Watch Auction Dynamics — WatchProSite Forum Digest

bernard cheong · 2013-01-28T17:08:02Z

Bernard Cheong explores the concept of anonymous, no-reserve watch auctions without end dates, analyzing market behavior and collector psychology.

bernard cheong

WPS member · Horological Meandering forum

20 replies2310 views1 photos

Bernard Cheong initiates a thought-provoking discussion on the feasibility of anonymous, no-reserve auctions without fixed end dates for exclusive watches. He proposes this as a social and behavioral experiment, aiming to understand market dynamics and collector responses rather than for commercial gain.

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I am NOT going to SELL any of these 8 watches.

No intent.

BUT..after walking away from the last few auctions, both live and online of Sotheby's and Chris and Antiquo...I need and want to hear if it is a workable idea to hold anonymous auctions.

No reserves.

No end date or expiry time.

What would happen, what response would be like, if I or anyone, would simply place ONE watch, or a few watches...say this is an example:

Of this watch...if someone places it up...no reserves, any offers, even if payment is later than a year..iddylic setting.

If the price is right...the seller agrees...he lets it go.

I am wanting to know if it will work.

Say for an Opus 10.

Any offers, just email..even if it is $10,000 usd.

Will a system like this work?

Will it work on say my website or any one elses?

Or even here...after all, they maybe many who have 20 to 100 watches, and may sell if a good price is offered.

Moderators can remove this post, if it is against policy.

I am just mooting a platform which you can also use.

The item (it is imaginary, I have no Opus X), will remain up until sold.

Key Points from the Discussion

The premise of a private, no-reserve auction for exclusive watches can be analyzed through a Prisoner's Dilemma, considering seller motivations like avoiding logistical hassles and buyer motivations related to exclusivity and 'buzz'.
Watches, especially ultra-exclusive mechanical pieces, often behave as Veblen goods, where increased price can heighten desirability, a principle central to how auctions function.
For high-value pieces like an Opus X, the lack of open competition in an anonymous, no-reserve system might lead to lowball offers, as buyers would fear overpaying. This system might work better for less expensive items with established market prices.
If the seller is not solely motivated by maximizing profit, a win-win scenario with a buyer could emerge, especially for ultra-exclusive pieces, though this might not be a sustainable business model.
Auctions typically provide price estimates, and a no-reserve system could lead to unexpectedly high bids, benefiting the seller. This could also make pricing fairer by reducing competition from buyers willing to pay any cost.
The proposed system could be more interesting with a curated selection of multiple watches, perhaps ten, rather than just one, to appeal to a broader audience.
Some collectors, not in immediate need of cash, are open to selling if an appropriate offer is made, suggesting a willingness to engage in such informal transactions.
Selling is not always about profit; some collectors prioritize finding a buyer who will truly treasure the piece, even if it means selling for less.

The Discussion

Ed. W

Jan 28, 2013

That's an interesting concept Bernard

but I think one of the keys to getting the maximum price at auction is the open (or anonymous) competitiveness in getting that piece you and someone else also wants. There is also comfort in knowing that it has almost as much value to someone else as it does to you. For expensive pieces (such as this Opus X example), I think the problem would be that no one wants to have overpaid and would simply continue with lowballish offers. For cheaper pieces (let's just say under 10,000), there is usually

bernard cheong

Jan 29, 2013

GREAT. This is what I want to hear.

The longer a watch is placed up...the more people will talk about it...until it is sold..after an incredible amount of arguments. It will not be a good business model..just a social study.

bernard cheong

Feb 4, 2013

It makes me think.

Thanks for reading and the advice too.

Bruce Banner

Jan 28, 2013

Has it been done before?

Are you describing a "for sale, best offer" sale?

bernard cheong

Jan 29, 2013

For one watch..no.

I was thinking more of a social/behavioral experiment...using only ONE watch, say a swatch or opus...and leaving it until it is sold. It may reveal how the market behaves, and will open discussions over that watch...pros, cons, etc etc... Not for business, Academic.

Ed. W

Jan 29, 2013

Funny thing is it's not allowed in pretty much any market I know of. [nt]

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