Baron - Mr Red offers a critical analysis of a recent vintage Rolex auction in Geneva, challenging the prevailing narrative of ever-increasing prices. He delves into the nuances of market performance, highlighting instances where expectations were unmet and quality played a decisive role. This post provides valuable insights for collectors navigating the dynamic vintage Rolex market.
PuristS has a policy of not talking about the price of watches. For example, its not forum policy to discuss the attraction (or not) of a watch that is about to be auctioned. On the other hand, discussing an auction after the event seems fair game to me.
For the last several years, we have seen auction after auction where prices generally grinded (often shooting) higher. Big crowns, Paul Newmans, GMTs.....it hasn't happened across all references, but quite a few of the vintage Rolex spectrum have seen nothing short of spectacular increases. Many, on this forum, have declared vintage Rolex to have assumed the role of "King", succeeding Patek. I remain a sceptic there.
Well, yesterday's auction in Geneva proved to be a fairly big disappointment. Moonphases seemed to be more in vogue, though not overwhelmingly. There were a number of Paul Newmans and to be honest, the quality of the range varied from 60% up to 90%+. Prices varied accordingly. I thought the days of picking up a Paul Newman for $70k had long gone. Seemingly not. Yet, on the other hand, another Paul Newman that came with an enormous degree of controversy scored a hammer price of $400k. Having said that, this was well shy of expectations that saw some anticipating the $1m mark being broken. Big crowns frequently failed to reach reserve prices and failed to sell. Good quality Comex or Comex with some twist generally beat estimates, but only the generally low estimates by Christies.....results were soft in comparison with recent auctions. A 1675 GMT was a stand-out winner...coming in at 6-times the estimate.......a cool $200k. But then I guess it helps when the watch in question has a blue bezel and was made specifically for his Highness Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, carrying the crest of the UAE Ministry of Defence. Another GMT 1675 for his Highness scored $90k compared with estimates of $30k.
Yes, there were some winners. Some clear losers and a large amount that came within very conservative estimates that were way down on previous auctions.
What do I make of it?
Well, if I am honest, and I do recognise that one person's view is (especially in vintage Rolex world) NOT an authority......but my general impression is that the overall quality of the watches was on the low side. In the Geneva auction earlier in the year, there were some true killer watches for sale....some really big stars. I am not sure that can be said for November's auction. Yes, of course, there were some star watches, but to really get a buzz, I think you need 10 or so "buzz" watches. This auction failed to deliver on that score. So many collectors were not playing at this auction. Dealers are constantly looking for quality stock to sell and basically are having trouble finding enough. The result is that the auctions start to dredge, and the auction results reflect that.
Yes, yesterday's auction was a disappointment for most. It failed to provide the excitement or indeed the novelty of recent auctions. $1/2m Daytonas with Omani dials were not evident yesterday. Ironically, the star of the show was a GMT 1675...I think that says it all.
Has Rolex lost the vintage shine?
No, because the reason for yesterday's humdrum results was primarily a lack of quality vintage pieces for sale. A lack of supply is rarely a sign of a bubbled market. I think yesterday's poor auction is a harbinger of what will likely be another surge in prices. Basically, collectors who have quality vintage Rolex are just not being enticed into selling at current market prices. To entice, prices seemingly need to rise more.
For me, it is a lose:lose scenario. I did not even bid in yesterday's auction as could see nothing I wanted for my collection. The highlight of my day was winning a betting pool guessing the price of the controversial Paul Newman. I guessed CHF 390k hammer. It came in at CHF 380k. I win 5 Nato Straps....yeah, that actually got me excited! When quality of stock drops, I lose as I don't get a chance to pick up watches I would like to own. Yet, I also lose insofar as if prices need to rise to entice interesting watches into the market, I have to pay a lot more. Lose.
Yep.....collecting vintage Rolex is a painful game for sure.
This message has been edited by Baron on 2014-11-11 06:10:37 This message has been edited by Baron on 2014-11-11 06:14:32 This message has been edited by Baron on 2014-11-12 06:13:27
About the Rolex GMT Ref. 1675
The GMT-Master reference 1675 is a significant model in the brand's history, representing an evolution from earlier GMT-Master references. It was produced for an extended period, allowing for numerous dial, bezel, and hand variations throughout its production run. This reference is notable for its introduction of crown guards, enhancing the watch's robustness and contributing to its distinct profile. It solidified the GMT-Master's design language, which would influence subsequent generations.
This reference features a 40mm case, available in stainless steel, yellow gold, or a two-tone combination of steel and yellow gold. It is powered by the automatic Caliber 1575, a chronometer-certified movement known for its reliability and a power reserve of approximately 42 hours. The watch is fitted with an acrylic crystal and offers a water resistance of 50 meters, suitable for everyday wear. The bidirectional rotating bezel, typically with an aluminum insert, displays a 24-hour scale.
For collectors, the 1675 is highly sought after due to its long production period and the resulting variety of configurations, including different dial types (gilt, matte), hand styles, and bezel colors (Pepsi, all-red, all-black). Its four-digit reference number and acrylic crystal are key characteristics that define it as a vintage Rolex. The reference appeals to those interested in the historical development of the GMT-Master line and the nuances of vintage watch collecting.
Specifications
Caliber
Cal. 1575
Case
Yellow Gold
Diameter
40mm
Dial
Black
Water Resist.
50m
Crystal
Acrylic
About the Rolex Rolex Submariner Date Ref. 1680
The Rolex Submariner reference 1680 is notable as the first Submariner model to feature a date complication, marking a significant evolution for the line. Introduced in the late 1960s, it bridged the gap between the earlier no-date Submariners and later iterations, offering enhanced functionality while retaining the robust characteristics of the professional tool watch. This reference is distinguished by its single cyclops date magnifier on the crystal, a feature that would become a hallmark of many subsequent Rolex models.
This reference typically features a 40mm steel case, housing the self-winding Caliber 1575 movement. The movement provides a power reserve of approximately 48 hours. The crystal is acrylic, commonly referred to as Plexiglas, contributing to its vintage aesthetic. Water resistance for the 1680 is rated at 200 meters, consistent with its design as a reliable underwater instrument.
For collectors, the reference 1680 is highly sought after, particularly early examples with "Red Submariner" dials where the word "Submariner" is printed in red. These variants represent a distinct period in Rolex's production history and are prized for their rarity and aesthetic appeal. The 1680 appeals to those who appreciate the blend of historical significance, functional design, and the tangible qualities of vintage Rolex manufacturing.
Specifications
Caliber
Cal.1575
Case
steel
Diameter
40mm
Dial
black
Water Resist.
200m
Crystal
Acrylic (Plexiglas)
About the Rolex Submariner Ref. 5513
The Rolex Submariner reference 5513 is a specific iteration within the Submariner model line. This reference is recognized by collectors for its particular configuration and production period.
The case and movement details for this specific reference are not provided in the input facts. Therefore, no description of the case material, crystal type, or movement architecture can be offered.
This reference appeals to collectors interested in the Submariner line. Its position within the broader Rolex catalog is defined by its reference number and the characteristics associated with that specific production.
Specifications
Caliber
Rolex Caliber 1520 / 1530
Case
Stainless Steel
Diameter
40mm
Dial
Black (Gilt or Matte)
Water Resist.
200m
Crystal
Acrylic
About the Rolex Ref. 5514
The Rolex Submariner reference 5514 is a specialized variant of the Submariner line, produced exclusively for COMEX (Compagnie Maritime d'Expertises), a French industrial deep-sea diving company. This reference is distinguished by its unique helium escape valve, integrated into the left side of the case, a feature not found on standard Submariner models of its era. It represents a purpose-built tool watch designed for professional saturation divers, setting it apart from other Submariner references intended for broader commercial release. Its limited production and specific client make it a notable piece within the brand's history of professional watches.
The case of the reference 5514 is crafted from stainless steel, typically measuring 40mm in diameter. It houses an automatic movement, likely the Rolex Caliber 1520 or 1530, known for its robustness and reliability. The watch is fitted with a Plexiglas crystal, consistent with Rolex sports models from the mid-20th century, providing durability and ease of maintenance in demanding environments. The helium escape valve is a key technical modification, allowing accumulated helium to escape during decompression without damaging the watch crystal.
This reference appeals to collectors interested in specialized Rolex tool watches and those with a focus on professional diving equipment. Its association with COMEX and the presence of the helium escape valve make it a distinct and highly sought-after model. Variants often include dials with the COMEX logo, further emphasizing its unique provenance. The 5514 occupies a specific niche, representing a period when Rolex collaborated directly with professional organizations to develop watches tailored for extreme conditions.
Specifications
Caliber
1520/1530
Case
Stainless Steel
Diameter
40mm
Dial
Black
Water Resist.
200m
Crystal
Plexiglass
About the Rolex Date Ref. 16610
The Rolex Submariner reference 16610 is a robust and functional diver's watch, representing a key evolution within the Submariner lineage. It succeeded the reference 168000 and introduced incremental updates while maintaining the core design principles of the professional tool watch. This reference is distinguished by its use of 904L stainless steel and a sapphire crystal, enhancing its durability and water resistance for demanding use. It remained a cornerstone of the brand's sports watch offerings for many years.
This reference features a 40mm case crafted from 904L stainless steel, housing the automatic Caliber 3135 movement. This self-winding mechanical movement is known for its reliability and precision, offering a power reserve of approximately 48 hours. The watch is fitted with a scratch-resistant sapphire crystal and is water-resistant to 300 meters (1,000 feet), secured by a Triplock winding crown. The unidirectional rotating bezel is equipped with an aluminum insert.
The 16610 appeals to collectors seeking a modern classic Submariner that bridges the gap between vintage and contemporary iterations. It represents the last generation of Submariners with an aluminum bezel insert before the introduction of ceramic bezels. Variants primarily involve minor dial changes over its production run, such as lug hole cases versus no lug hole cases, and the transition from tritium to Luminova luminescence. Its long production period makes it a widely recognized and accessible reference.
Specifications
Caliber
Cal. 3135
Case
Stainless Steel
Diameter
40 mm
Dial
Black
Water Resist.
300m
Crystal
Sapphire crystal
Key Points from the Discussion
The auction's disappointing results were attributed to a lack of overall quality in the lots and a perceived void in Rolex leadership at Christie's after Aurel Bacs' departure, impacting the curation of top-tier watches.
There might be a 'critical mass' effect where a sufficient number of top lots in an auction can drive prices upwards for other pieces, and conversely, a lack thereof can lead to softer results.
Quality will ultimately prevail over rarity in the vintage market; when both quality and rarity align, watches tend to achieve higher values and bring greater satisfaction to collectors.
The market for quality vintage pieces remains strong, but demand for lower-quality items is significantly weaker, with many lots failing to attract telephone bidders.
The final value of a vintage watch depends not only on quality but also on originality, with examples of fake dials appearing in auctions and selling for much lower prices.
The demand for vintage watches is always present when the 'ingredients' of supply and quality are right, and external factors like dealer tweets can also influence buyer sentiment.
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The Discussion
NI
nikolaj
Nov 11, 2014
Thanks for sharing your opinion Baron
I had been wondering about the seemingly conservative estimates and followed some of the auction from the side line. I am in no way qualified to judge the quality of the lots solely from the "mug shots" provided in the catalogue, and the condition reports often leave a lot to desire, so I have been waiting for expert opinions like yours (even if you are stating as an individual, yours is always an expert opinion to me!). Your views are interesting. I am intrigued if there is such a thing as a cr
BA
Baron - Mr Red
Nov 11, 2014
Hey Nikolaj....i take a different slant
I think the price for quality vintage is extremely strong, but the price for lower quality is not being driven by the same demand. Look at yesterday's auction....for many lots, there were NO telephone bidders at all. Demand for mediocre pieces was very low. My view on vintage is that regardless of the rarity of a reference, always try to get the highest quality of that reference as possible. My 16660 is not a rare reference at all. But it took me 2 years to find the right one....so I guess what
HS
hs111
Nov 12, 2014
J.. Very educative thoughts.. and a pretty sharp analysis.. Food fir thoughts, as well
.. increasingly , although it's a still on a quite modest & humble level, I started to develop a deeper understanding of your, Nico's advice & some others' positions & opinions. - To be honest, my 1675 GMT Vintage/gilt took me more than 2 years and it's even more so with my happy recent acquisition of " my Explorer " ! So, in the end, it appears, quality will prevail more even over rarety ( whatever that is quantitatively); when both are in sync, I gyess, that's the point, where items climb & cl
AM
amanico
Nov 11, 2014
I am not that surprised to see prices calming down...
High or down, that doesn't mean a lot.... It dรฉpends on many factors... Bidders, quality of the watches, history sometimes, well.... If you see a DRSD MK II PP Brown dial for 10 K Euros, I am in! :) :) :) All the best, my friend. Nicolas
BA
Baron - Mr Red
Nov 11, 2014
Prices on the MK2 tropic PP have indeed collapsed....
......from 30 quadrillion down to just 100 billion.....
AM
amanico
Nov 11, 2014
LOL! There is some hope, then. ;) [nt]
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