Vintage Rolex Auction: Prices Down, Quality Up
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Vintage Rolex Auction: Prices Down, Quality Up

By Baron - Mr Red · Nov 11, 2014 · 20 replies
Baron - Mr Red
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Baron - Mr Red offers a critical analysis of a recent vintage Rolex auction in Geneva, challenging the prevailing narrative of ever-increasing prices. He delves into the nuances of market performance, highlighting instances where expectations were unmet and quality played a decisive role. This post provides valuable insights for collectors navigating the dynamic vintage Rolex market.

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Lot XXX - Not for Sale



PuristS has a policy of not talking about the price of watches. For example, its not forum policy to discuss the attraction (or not) of a watch that is about to be auctioned. On the other hand, discussing an auction after the event seems fair game to me. 

For the last several years, we have seen auction after auction where prices generally grinded (often shooting) higher. Big crowns, Paul Newmans, GMTs.....it hasn't happened across all references, but quite a few of the vintage Rolex spectrum have seen nothing short of spectacular increases. Many, on this forum, have declared vintage Rolex to have assumed the role of "King", succeeding Patek. I remain a sceptic there.

Well, yesterday's auction in Geneva proved to be a fairly big disappointment. Moonphases seemed to be more in vogue, though not overwhelmingly. There were a number of Paul Newmans and to be honest, the quality of the range varied from 60% up to 90%+. Prices varied accordingly. I thought the days of picking up a Paul Newman for $70k had long gone. Seemingly not. Yet, on the other hand, another Paul Newman that came with an enormous degree of controversy scored a hammer price of $400k. Having said that, this was well shy of expectations that saw some anticipating the $1m mark being broken. Big crowns frequently failed to reach reserve prices and failed to sell. Good quality Comex or Comex with some twist generally beat estimates, but only the generally low estimates by Christies.....results were soft in comparison with recent auctions. A 1675 GMT was a stand-out winner...coming in at 6-times the estimate.......a cool $200k. But then I guess it helps when the watch in question has a blue bezel and was made specifically for his Highness Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, carrying the crest of the UAE Ministry of Defence. Another GMT 1675 for his Highness scored $90k compared with estimates of $30k. 

Yes, there were some winners. Some clear losers and a large amount that came within very conservative estimates that were way down on previous auctions.

What do I make of it?

Well, if I am honest, and I do recognise that one person's view is (especially in vintage Rolex world) NOT an authority......but my general impression is that the overall quality of the watches was on the low side. In the Geneva auction earlier in the year, there were some true killer watches for sale....some really big stars. I am not sure that can be said for November's auction. Yes, of course, there were some star watches, but to really get a buzz, I think you need 10 or so "buzz" watches. This auction failed to deliver on that score. So many collectors were not playing at this auction. Dealers are constantly looking for quality stock to sell and basically are having trouble finding enough. The result is that the auctions start to dredge, and the auction results reflect that.

Yes, yesterday's auction was a disappointment for most. It failed to provide the excitement or indeed the novelty of recent auctions. $1/2m Daytonas with Omani dials were not evident yesterday. Ironically, the star of the show was a GMT 1675...I think that says it all.

Has Rolex lost the vintage shine? 

No, because the reason for yesterday's humdrum results was primarily a lack of quality vintage pieces for sale. A lack of supply is rarely a sign of a bubbled market. I think yesterday's poor auction is a harbinger of what will likely be another surge in prices. Basically, collectors who have quality vintage Rolex are just not being enticed into selling at current market prices. To entice, prices seemingly need to rise more. 

For me, it is a lose:lose scenario. I did not even bid in yesterday's auction as could see nothing I wanted for my collection. The highlight of my day was winning a betting pool guessing the price of the controversial Paul Newman. I guessed CHF 390k hammer. It came in at CHF 380k. I win 5 Nato Straps....yeah, that actually got me excited! When quality of stock drops, I lose as I don't get a chance to pick up watches I would like to own. Yet, I also lose insofar as if prices need to rise to entice interesting watches into the market, I have to pay a lot more. Lose.

Yep.....collecting vintage Rolex is a painful game for sure. 



This message has been edited by Baron on 2014-11-11 06:10:37 This message has been edited by Baron on 2014-11-11 06:14:32 This message has been edited by Baron on 2014-11-12 06:13:27

About the Rolex GMT Ref. 1675

The GMT-Master reference 1675 is a significant model in the brand's history, representing an evolution from earlier GMT-Master references. It was produced for an extended period, allowing for numerous dial, bezel, and hand variations throughout its production run. This reference is notable for its introduction of crown guards, enhancing the watch's robustness and contributing to its distinct profile. It solidified the GMT-Master's design language, which would influence subsequent generations.

This reference features a 40mm case, available in stainless steel, yellow gold, or a two-tone combination of steel and yellow gold. It is powered by the automatic Caliber 1575, a chronometer-certified movement known for its reliability and a power reserve of approximately 42 hours. The watch is fitted with an acrylic crystal and offers a water resistance of 50 meters, suitable for everyday wear. The bidirectional rotating bezel, typically with an aluminum insert, displays a 24-hour scale.

For collectors, the 1675 is highly sought after due to its long production period and the resulting variety of configurations, including different dial types (gilt, matte), hand styles, and bezel colors (Pepsi, all-red, all-black). Its four-digit reference number and acrylic crystal are key characteristics that define it as a vintage Rolex. The reference appeals to those interested in the historical development of the GMT-Master line and the nuances of vintage watch collecting.

Specifications

Caliber
Cal. 1575
Case
Yellow Gold
Diameter
40mm
Dial
Black
Water Resist.
50m
Crystal
Acrylic

Key Points from the Discussion

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The Discussion
NI
nikolaj
Nov 11, 2014
Thanks for sharing your opinion Baron

I had been wondering about the seemingly conservative estimates and followed some of the auction from the side line. I am in no way qualified to judge the quality of the lots solely from the "mug shots" provided in the catalogue, and the condition reports often leave a lot to desire, so I have been waiting for expert opinions like yours (even if you are stating as an individual, yours is always an expert opinion to me!). Your views are interesting. I am intrigued if there is such a thing as a cr

BA
Baron - Mr Red
Nov 11, 2014
Hey Nikolaj....i take a different slant

I think the price for quality vintage is extremely strong, but the price for lower quality is not being driven by the same demand. Look at yesterday's auction....for many lots, there were NO telephone bidders at all. Demand for mediocre pieces was very low. My view on vintage is that regardless of the rarity of a reference, always try to get the highest quality of that reference as possible. My 16660 is not a rare reference at all. But it took me 2 years to find the right one....so I guess what

HS
hs111
Nov 12, 2014
J.. Very educative thoughts.. and a pretty sharp analysis.. Food fir thoughts, as well

.. increasingly , although it's a still on a quite modest & humble level, I started to develop a deeper understanding of your, Nico's advice & some others' positions & opinions. - To be honest, my 1675 GMT Vintage/gilt took me more than 2 years and it's even more so with my happy recent acquisition of " my Explorer " ! So, in the end, it appears, quality will prevail more even over rarety ( whatever that is quantitatively); when both are in sync, I gyess, that's the point, where items climb & cl

AM
amanico
Nov 11, 2014
I am not that surprised to see prices calming down...

High or down, that doesn't mean a lot.... It dรฉpends on many factors... Bidders, quality of the watches, history sometimes, well.... If you see a DRSD MK II PP Brown dial for 10 K Euros, I am in! :) :) :) All the best, my friend. Nicolas

BA
Baron - Mr Red
Nov 11, 2014
Prices on the MK2 tropic PP have indeed collapsed....

......from 30 quadrillion down to just 100 billion.....

AM
amanico
Nov 11, 2014
LOL! There is some hope, then. ;) [nt]

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