Baron - Mr Red initiates a compelling series exploring future classic Rolex watches from the 1990-2018 era, beginning with the iconic Submariner 16610LV. This article delves into the criteria that define a 'hidden gem' and a future collectible, offering a thoughtful analysis of what makes certain references stand out in the collector's market. He argues that the 16610LV, with its unique characteristics and historical significance, is a prime candidate for this status.
I was recently chatting with a friend. He was bemoaning the fact that
the current “hot” steel Rolex were just impossible to get from an AD and
were now trading at a substantial premium in the grey market. A steel
Daytona 116500 is now fetching $18,000+. I saw the new GMT Pepsi offered
at over $20,000. To be honest, it is a little crazy that these new
models are at such elevated prices. My reply to my friend was that for
that amount of money, he could find a neo-vintage piece (ie something
from the last 30 years) that would become a future classic. He then
asked me what from the last 30 years I would classify as a future
classic. It got me thinking. This post represents the first in a series
of posts that will look at just this question.
In the preface
to the “Rolex Submariner Story”, Gino Balbi described watches as “having
souls.” To quote him directly, “if the technical part animates them
from a mechanical point of view, charisma on the other hand is the fruit
of purely emotional values such as personality and originality.”
In
my view, one of the main reasons that the Rolex Submariner has become
the most widely recognised watch icon the world has ever seen is
precisely because it has this charisma about it - a sort of soul. Over
the years, various vintage Submariners have become so desired by
collectors that prices have been driven to stratospheric levels at
auctions. The idea of finding a nice ‘Big Crown” or pristine Milsub at a
reasonable price has now passed. Similarly, the gilt dialled Subs of
the 1960-70 era have become gold dust as have the small crowns like the
6536 and 5508. For so long, these watches were obtainable at reasonable
prices yet, over time, collectors became more aware of their rarity and
their collectibility. The rest is history. When these watches were
readily available (and cheap), they were effectively hidden gems. For
the collector who wanted historical watches, in original condition that
were rare and a key part of Rolex history, these watches were hidden
gems. A number of criteria form what it takes to be a hidden gem. In my view, it would roughly comprise the following:
- Of
limited production thereby making it reasonably hard to find. Supply
needs to be of a sufficient number to make the hunt realistic, but hard
enough to make it a test.
- Within a specific reference,
there is usually some distinguishing factor that separates one type of
dial from another. The rarer the dial variant, the more in-demand it
will be.
- Unique appearance. Take for example the Big
Crowns that have clearly recognisable characteristics that make them
easy to identify. Similarly, on Milsubs, the marking on the insert makes
them stand out as does their military features.
- Typically,
a collectible watch marks something important in the history of Rolex.
It is not always the case, but often it can be. Take the Sea-Dweller
1665, for example. The invention of the HEV came with the 1665 and that
marked a very significant point in Rolex history and how it subsequently
shaped the company.
What, then, are the modern “hidden gems” and future classics? I think they are out there……
I
will start with one that is already starting to become acknowledged as
such. In my view, of the Submariners that have been made in the last 30
years, this would be one clear choice for a future classic collector
piece. The Submariner 16610LV.
The
movement in the 16610LV is the 28,800 vph frequency Caliber 3135, with
50hr power reserve. Essentially 100% in-house caliber that has proven itself as
totally reliable and sturdy. Indeed, many have argued that it is one of
the most reliable calibers ever made by Rolex. It may not be beautiful
or refined, but on reliability it reigns supreme. Sapphire crystal,
triplock crown and 40mm case constructed from the Rolex patented ultra
high grade 904L steel. The watch is built like a tank and is one that is
very practical to use, unlike so many of the 50yr+ vintage pieces that
are not as sturdy. This is a thoroughly usable neo-vintage watch.
What makes the 16610LV different?
- Firstly,
it was an anniversary model to celebrate 50 years of the Submariner.
That makes it special to start with. Rolex made the hands fatter and the
indexes bigger as a nod to the historical models.
- Rolex
added several further twists to the model such as making the insert in
green, representing the heritage colour of Rolex. Unlike its modern day
brother, the Hulk, the dial remained black and only the insert carried
this colour shift. Enough to make it immediately recognisable but also
retaining that Submariner DNA.
- It also came with
gold-surround markers - the aptly named Maxi dial - further
distinguishing it from its Submariner predecessors. This style of Maxi
dial had first been introduced to the Yachtmaster in 1991. This was the
first Submariner to have it.
- Released in 2003 and
produced for a relatively short lifespan of 7 years. However, within
these 7 years, the model saw a number of evolutions and it is within
these evolutions that desirability evolved. Within these evolutions are
the seeds to what makes a great reference a future collector’s classic.
A
seven year production is not especially long. This is especially so
given that Rolex differentiated the dials that were used through this 7
year production. The very first models were produced in 2003q3 on the
Y-series. There is no dispute that the Y-series were the very first
models of production. These Y series dials have a very specific format
that is identical in only the early F-series that were produced from
2003q4 through to 2004q3. These first generation unique style dials can
legitimately be called the true anniversary dials.
In these
specific F and Y series dials, there are a number of features that
differentiate the 16610LV from all later production. The following table
aims to highlight the general evolution of the 16610LV through its
lifecycle.
|
Series
|
Shape of “O” in Rolex
|
“R” in Oyster in relation to “R” in Rolex
|
Shape of 4 on bezel insert
|
Position of “SWISS MADE”
|
Potential Series
|
Approximate date range
|
|
Mark I
|
Oval O
|
Aligned with gap between left and right feet of R
|
Fat 4
|
Stretches outside of the 28-32 minute markers. Only dial with marker directly under S and E.
|
Y and F
|
2003q3- 2004q4
|
|
Mark 2
|
Oval O
|
Aligned with right foot of R.
|
Slim 4
(some Fat 4)
|
Remains inside the 28-32 minute markers.
Short minute markers.
|
F
|
2003q4-2005q1
|
|
Mark 3
|
Round O
|
Aligned with end of left foot of R. But can also be aligned with right foot.
|
Slim 4
(some Fat 4)
|
Remains inside the 28-32 minute markers.
Short minute markers.
|
F and D
|
2004-2005
|
|
Mark 4
|
Round O
|
Aligned with end of left foot of R. But can also be aligned with right foot.
|
Slim 4
|
Remains inside the 28-32 minute markers. Long minute markers at 28 and 32.
|
D and Z
|
2005q1-2006
|
|
Mark 5*
|
Round O
|
Aligned with end of left foot of R.
|
Slim 4
|
Remains inside the 28-32 minute markers. Long minute markers at 28 and 32.
|
Z and M
|
2005q4-2007
|
|
Mark 6-8*
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
2006-2010
|
Round O versus Oval O
Thin 4 versus Fat 4
Position of SWISS MADE
All images courtesy of Mondani (thank you Giorgia!!)
To
summarise, the very first models of the 16110LV that were released to
celebrate the 50th anniversary can, essentially, be distinguished by
four factors. Mark 1 dials all have;
- An oval O in the word Rolex
- The
position of the words SWISS ONLY falling outside the end of the 28-32
minute markers. All subsequent dials see the words fall within those
markers.
- The 4 in 40 on the green insert is a fat 4 rather than the subsequently used thin 4.
- The
position of the “r” in Oyster in relation to “R” in Rolex is aligned
with the gap between the left and right feet of the “R”.
Of
the 40 or so Mk1 dials that I have seen, all but one or two conform to
exactly the same description as above. I have seen a Mk1 dial with a
“Thin 4”. To be honest, I am not sure that I have a ready explanation
for a Mk1 dial with a Thin 4 insert. It is possible that an original Fat
4 insert became damaged and was replaced by a later insert. Possibly.
The
above four factors essentially separate the Mark 1 dial from the
subsequent dials. The year of production of Mark 1 dials can be 2003 or
2004, but it is always on a Y or F series. Its possible for a later Mark
2 dial to have an F-series serial number. It would not, however, be
possible for a Y-series serial number to come on anything other than a
Mark 1 dial. If a watch ticks all of the above four criteria, then it is
a Mark 1 dial.
The fact that Rolex made these subtle changes to
the watch allows collectors to differentiate from the first wave of
production of the 16610LV that is what many see as the true anniversary
watch and subsequent production. It also pins the period of production
of Mark 1 dials down to a 12-18 month period, which for Rolex is
incredibly narrow.
At the time of production, the watch was met
with some scepticism by collectors. It was not a roaring success by any
means. However, as time has passed, its qualities have become more and
more appreciated.
Is the 16610LV the coolest Submariner produced
over the last 30 years? Is it the most collectible? I would have to say
that it is most certainly in the frame for such an accolade. As a
collector, this watch appeals to me a great deal. It has a thoroughly
modern and reliable movement. Sapphire glass. It looks different to a
normal Submariner. It is very rare in any dial variation. It has that
dial evolution that so distinguishes Rolex. It is easy to service. It
has a touch of history to it being the first ever submariner with a
“Maxi dial” as well as the first with a green insert! Yes, this watch
ticks many of the boxes that for me would distinguish a modern but
soon-to-be classic watch. It is easy to see how, in 5-10 or so years
time, people will be talking about how cheap the 16610LV used to be. If I
was choosing, I would naturally gravitate towards a Mk1 dial, but to be
honest the production across all dial variations is not enormous and I
would be happy with any.
